Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[vikings123]

For the LEAP buyers here, when do you pull the trigger and any preference for strike (and why)?

IMO people are getting too excited about FSD 12.3. I plan to use a wait and see approach, not in any rush to deploy cash. Seems like this 1 month free FSD trial is the last demand lever Elon is using to help improve numbers. It is also a very risky approach based on the reviews I have read. Sure there are glowing reviews but there are also some reviews that make you feel this is not ready for wide release. I trust Tesla team but don't trust the new customers to pay full attention.

I feel like we will continue to chop in this range until April 1st. I don't see us trading north of 200 or south of 160 at least until ER. 160 before ER might happen if P&D is anywhere close to Troy's latest estimate. In other words I will wait for a clear break either to the upside or downside before I deploy my capital for LEAPS.

 

[Jim Holder]

The bid-ask is usually pretty wide the first few days to weeks. I’m looking to roll my 1/26s 100c and 150c once the spread becomes more reasonable.

Thanks for the tip.

I also noticed while June 2026 to December 2026 is $10 difference for +C120, it’s only $3 extra from January 2026 to June 2026. I don’t know if that’s how it normally works or if there are some arbitrage/discount opportunity there.
[Edit: Nevermind, it appears to be because of the very wide bid/ask spread as you mentioned in the new added date December 2026.]

When you roll +C forward, is that even if the call is red/under water?

 

[MrMoo]

IMO people are getting too excited about FSD 12.3. I plan to use a wait and see approach, not in any rush to deploy cash. Seems like this 1 month free FSD trial is the last demand lever Elon is using to help improve numbers. It is also a very risky approach based on the reviews I have read. Sure there are glowing reviews but there are also some reviews that make you feel this is not ready for wide release. I trust Tesla team but don't trust the new customers to pay full attention.

I feel like we will continue to chop in this range until April 1st. I don't see us trading north of 200 or south of 160 at least until ER. 160 before ER might happen if P&D is anywhere close to Troy's latest estimate. In other words I will wait for a clear break either to the upside or downside before I deploy my capital for LEAPS.

Agreed, this demand lever isn't even going to impact car sales. We might see its effects in the balance sheets in the next quarter or the one after, but relying on Full Self-Driving (FSD) sales is like banking on energy growth—it's not our main focus. FSD needs to be perfected, not just sold to a few trial users with a 1% conversion rate.

Now, this next part is purely speculative, so take it with a grain of salt. I suspect Elon is in panic mode because the end-of-quarter numbers are really poor, and he's trying his hardest to boost the stock.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772465339147624680

 

[MrMoo]

Agreed, this demand lever isn't even going to impact car sales. We might see its effects in the balance sheets in the next quarter or the one after, but relying on Full Self-Driving (FSD) sales is like banking on energy growth—it's not our main focus. FSD needs to be perfected, not just sold to a few trial users with a 1% conversion rate.

Now, this next part is purely speculative, so take it with a grain of salt. I suspect Elon is in panic mode because the end-of-quarter numbers are really poor, and he's trying his hardest to boost the stock.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772465339147624680

Oops can't edit it anymore. I just reread what I said, I meant relying on FSD Beta sales is meaningless. Obviously the real version of FSD is an end game goal but we are years away from that.

 

[Max Plaid]

China weekly 13.2k, not very good, "The quarter is -25.6% QoQ. YTD is at -5.0% YoY"

Scratching my head bit as to why TSLA is up 3.5% in pre-market on fairly decent volume - I also tend to think short covering

I still have -c170's in play for this week, will just roll them if necessary

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772514989720392022

 

[Jim Holder]

Now, this next part is purely speculative, so take it with a grain of salt. I suspect Elon is in panic mode because the end-of-quarter numbers are really poor, and he's trying his hardest to boost the stock.

If I recall correctly from the veteran sages in this thread, Elon never cared about the share price.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Nice! Seems only $10 more on avg. than June 2026 for 6 extra months (but only $3 from January 2026 to June 2026 ).

For the LEAP buyers here, when do you pull the trigger and any preference for strike (and why)?

View attachment 1032129

Approx difference of price if buying now, waiting for bigger dip if it comes, or over $205 to confirm low is in:

View attachment 1032130

I tend to look at LEAPs as riskier alternatives to TSLA shares. So I don’t get the risk:reward at constant IV — e.g., a 31% gain in SP from 26Mar24 to 29Apr25 returns 40% on $174 LEAPs, but with downside risk. Are LEAPs largely a bet on a change in IV?

 

[Singuy]

China weekly 13.2k, not very good, "The quarter is -25.6% QoQ. YTD is at -5.0% YoY"

Scratching my head bit as to why TSLA is up 3.5% in pre-market on fairly decent volume - I also tend to think short covering

I still have -c170's in play for this week, will just roll them if necessary

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772514989720392022

Up probably because of capitulation from retail players like meet Kevin annoucement of his short on Tesla. If the direction of the stock becomes too rational, it should become irrational to F with the most people.

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 let us know if/when you decide to close your shorts. I’m assuming until then we use this opportunity to build up our hedges (buy more puts/sell more calls)?

 

[Jim Holder]

Per Cary: A close over $183 can be a go-long-stay-long signal with a target of $195 where shorts can be placed for rotation back down to channel bottom ($160-$170). A close over $195 is needed for further upside (and close shorts). NFA.

 

[MrMoo]

If I recall correctly from the veteran sages in this thread, Elon never cared about the share price.

He may not care on Twitter such as his Hertz deal tweet, or stock price too high but there are other things he does that show he does care to a degree.

The wave would never exist if he didn't care. He wouldn't do end of quarter incentives to push delivery numbers.

Before he planned to sell he also said TSLA would be the most valuable company in the world.

His just a confusing guy lol.

 

[thenewguy1979]

He may not care on Twitter such as his Hertz deal tweet, or stock price too high but there are other things he does that show he does care to a degree.

The wave would never exist if he didn't care. He wouldn't do end of quarter incentives to push delivery numbers.

Before he planned to sell he also said TSLA would be the most valuable company in the world.

His just a confusing guy lol.

He sometimes forgot his “medicine”.

Smell Bull Trap anyone?

 

[Singuy]

He may not care on Twitter such as his Hertz deal tweet, or stock price too high but there are other things he does that show he does care to a degree.

The wave would never exist if he didn't care. He wouldn't do end of quarter incentives to push delivery numbers.

Before he planned to sell he also said TSLA would be the most valuable company in the world.

His just a confusing guy lol.

If he cares about stonk going up, he can easily buy 50M dollars worth of Tesla and that alone will put tsla in a bull trend.

 

[UncaNed]

I tend to look at LEAPs as riskier alternatives to TSLA shares. So I don’t get the risk:reward at constant IV — e.g., a 31% gain in SP from 26Mar24 to 29Apr25 returns 40% on $174 LEAPs, but with downside risk. Are LEAPs largely a bet on a change in IV?

Delta is cheapest the farther out of the money they are when you buy LEAPS, and as TSLA share price rises, Delta increases nicely, accelerating the rise in option price relative to what you bought them for; that's the part that appeals to me of LEAPS vs. the limited 1:1 rise in corresponding share price.

This motivates me to always apportion lots of free cash to purchase latest expiring LEAPS just in case the stock price really craters, like to well below $100 share price, even.

...When you roll +C forward, is that even if the call is red/under water?

Thanks for asking the good questions, @Jim Holder! The answers in this forum to questions I thought I knew the answer to are often the most instructive; thanks, everyone!

 

[BornToFly]

Near the top of the pop, sold 100X 175CC, and 100X 180CC for April 5.
If I'm rolling those next week, it means my 110X +170/-195 BPS for April 12th are looking better....

Well, my CCs for next week pretty much mean the bottom for TSLA is in. In fact, we will never see 175 and 180 again after next week, because I was planning on keeping my shares until SP 1,000.

If you have -P, you're welcome.
If you have -C, I'm so sorry.

 

[elasalle]

I tend to look at LEAPs as riskier alternatives to TSLA shares. So I don’t get the risk:reward at constant IV — e.g., a 31% gain in SP from 26Mar24 to 29Apr25 returns 40% on $174 LEAPs, but with downside risk. Are LEAPs largely a bet on a change in IV?

Options is leverage and risker than stocks.
Unless SP goes bananas, I don't think it IV will be a factor. ..and over the 1-2 year period, there will be fluctuations on IV ..e.g for earnings, some big news etc.
Over long term if SP changes, your Delta keeps increasing (or decreasing) and you can end up with more(or less) delta, than just shares. cheers!

 

[ProfessorZoom]

 

[elasalle]

All the -ve news has a 66K PUT Wall at 170, looks like mr Market decided to play defense early ..

 

[Jim Holder]

3/28

4/5

 

[thenewguy1979]

loaded the boat on 4/19 +160P/-150P during the 18x pump.
STO -182.5 for 4/5

Dog is done for next couple of weeks.

If I don't report back you can find me at Wendy. Ask for The Dog