Interesting, the 14-day quoted this morning at 41! Tesla (TSLA) 14-Day RSI
What is your link for that RSI data? I may be looking at the wrong datapoint, can’t really tell in my link. TIA.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What is your link for that RSI data? I may be looking at the wrong datapoint, can’t really tell in my link. TIA.
I sold $280 December calls for $7.5 way too early. I also bought April 5th puts $155-150 and April 12th 160/150 put spreads.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I sold -C 182.5 for 4/5. Not in for any Put Spread yet (got out when it pump beyond 183). Waiting for a signal that we hit top or break through 190+.
Playing defensive for now. Don't want to work at Wendy
dc_h
Active Member
Maybe you should change your handle to BorntoFlyCloseto the Sun.
I just rolled 185cc to 190 for next week. I think P&D will send us back down for another beating. Who knows, could be priced in already.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I think the pump to 184 was a wake-up call that anything can happen. Noted RSI is now back down to 71 but SP has held steady at the 180 mark.
Sometimes I have to remind myself is the extra $ worth it for the risk or just wait and see for less $ but also much less risk? My greatest fear is working for Wendy like those other guys (dogs) on Reddit
dc_h
Active Member
I solidly prefer the less risk and occasional small gamble. I got too confident before the Twitter debacle and lost on puts and calls on the run up and the crash down.I think the pump to 184 was a wake-up call that anything can happen. Noted RSI is now back down to 71 but SP has held steady at the 180 mark.
Sometimes I have to remind myself is the extra $ worth it for the risk or just wait and see for less $ but also much less risk? My greatest fear is working for Wendy like those other guys (dogs) on Reddit
closed out all for .15
Maybe $176 then another try at $187-$190
From the day’s premarket low ($177.52) to the High ($184.24) seems we’re testing the .786 Fib ($178.96)
Going to pullback & consolidate for a few days to maybe after P&D, then go back to test 182 on the 2H.
It is overbought on the 2H and this is significant. Therefore, I'm not entering shorts again until it fails a retest of 182 in the coming days. If it keeps consolidating into P&D then it's going to be a pickle as there'll be no good short entry if it drops right after but so be it.
Bought some 4/19 150 puts as a hedge against terrible earnings
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks dl003. Are you holding onto any naked call for now? was planning -190C for 4/5.
Not yet. I want to give it time to become cheap enough, much like the week of 2/23.
The conventional wisdom here is that P&D will be bad, it has been telegraphed in the media as well, so it is fair to wonder if it is priced in... I just have trouble thinking of a spin that will keep the PE over 40 given the very real fundamental challenges Tesla is facing. I see a path to organic growth and evolutionary change, but I fail to see a path to meaningful earnings growth over the next 12-24 months.
I guess I am at the point where I want to know what Tesla can do to change the narrative. The earnings call is going to be key to me as to if I believe the $250 story more than the $150 story.
You may want to consider extending the DTE another few weeks so that theta doesn’t eat it up before even getting to earnings. NFA
4/19 plot example:
5/17 plot example:
The dog must like to pee on exposed electrical wires!
The market is expecting "really bad" P&D numbers. At "kind of bad" are you comfortable with the risk?
To me, the market might forgive the ~10-20k drop from Berlin due to sabotage, but is scared with Shanghai numbers. There aren't any great ways to sugar coat that.
It is just too scary to call in either direction now... especially with the long weekend.
This is great advice, I mostly care about the reaction from the P&D, but if we plunge to 145 to fill the gap, this will save my margin. I think they will recognize some FSD revenue to make the numbers look better.
I will inevitably end up rolling my CC leaps down from 300 if we plunge…but maybe it’s already priced in. These puts just buy me time to re arrange
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