Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Blue horseshoe]

Nothing better than holdings puts when your favorite stock is going down.

Tastes bittersweet to me

 

[Jim Holder]

"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”

Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?

 

[Patrick66]

... But, somewhere between $125-140 REALLY does for longer duration LARGE investor pools..

My pessimistic view is big money is going to sit this out for two quarters. It is a lot of inventory build, which is going to cut Q2 production and reduce margins further. Tesla the company has a problem.

 

[intelligator]

"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”

Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?

what are margins on the megapack? BTW, not asking explicit, just curious where the greatest returns will come from.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh".

Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?

Not really. I mean it will help because it's a significant jump from Q4's deployment and Tesla's gross margin on Energy hit a all time high in Q4 even though deployment/revenue was lower than Q3. That was actually a very positive sign.

But when you go back and look at the past 4 quarters, Q1's deployment, while at a all time high, is only like 4% higher than Q3's all time high deployment.

Not nearly a big enough jump to have an outsized impact on EPS. And not nearly enough to counter the hits to EPS that delivery number is going to cause.

 

[Knightshade]

"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”

Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?

While it's a "record" it doesn't seem massively so over Q1 23?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775150584154222650

 

[Patrick66]

"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”

Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?

I doubt it can be meaningful. There are a lot of other margin gotchas out there to make it noise.

 

[jim0266]

It’s hard to tell how many locations are really DELIVERY locations, but some numbers are in the high 480, so with say 500, that would mean 100 cars at each location, or in transit, or sitting at a factory on average? Wouldn’t we have seen reports of that?

My personal thesis for some of the things we WERE seeing, like most M3 Highland deliveries for Mar being pushed back to May-June (that just miraculously showed up as now available and ready for delivery) was a quarterly PUSH into Q2, since Q1 was going to be a throwaway for sure.

What will happen now, is analysis of the E that is coming, which frankly could be NEGATIVE, and will buyers look past that as the anomaly that it MIGHT be, or will we get another mkt push down when those numbers come out. That’s about two weeks out on 4/17

ER is now 4/23

 

[OrthoSurg]

Now I understand why they threw away 1 month of free FSD

 

[Yoona]

i suspect this aggressive -p Below Bid is profit-taking (instead of STO -p looking for bounce)

 

[juanmedina]

Only 5% down that's nothing burger. Is anyone buying puts here?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Only 5% down that's nothing burger. Is anyone buying puts here?

With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% day

 

[juanmedina]

With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% day

I have been trading this stock for what 6 years? ...and I still don't get it .

 

[Jim Holder]

That’s about two weeks out on 4/17

4/23 (right in middle of Pesach )

 

[tivoboy]

overnight +91%, closing soon

edit : strategy is ideally wait 1 day before new STO (ie play next day's trend coz today might reverse)

View attachment 1034577

My feeling, wait till ER numbers get adjusted today and overnight.

 

[Discoducky]

With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% day

IMO, we aren't down more due to seemingly winning the price war in China and I was honestly waiting to buy more long-term shares if we went into the 140s.

For context, my belief is that China automakers are currently the only competition, with BYD at the top followed by the SAIC brands.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I've added 5 more spreads (-p150/+p140) for 4/26, on top of the existing 15. Paid $1.99. It feels as if the market has not yet digested these numbers and we could see a steady drop towards earnings, especially if macros also take a breather. Could be wrong as usual.

 

[Jim Holder]

Only 5% down that's nothing burger. Is anyone buying puts here?

I did, as insurance for more downgrades and another ER debacle.

I used gains from CC wins today to BTO a couple +P170 6/21 @17.10. I plan to add a couple more if we get a DCB.
I also STO 10x -C185 5/17 @6.40 and 10x -C190 5/17 @5.00. I plan to BTC on further weakness or as they bleed out.

 

[thenewguy1979]

People on the west coast are still sleeping. We just warming up. Give it some times....

 

[vikings123]

Now I understand why they threw away 1 month of free FSD

Yep. And this time I was hedged. Now that the number is out I feel like we go below 160$ before ER.

IMO people are getting too excited about FSD 12.3. I plan to use a wait and see approach, not in any rush to deploy cash. Seems like this 1 month free FSD trial is the last demand lever Elon is using to help improve numbers. It is also a very risky approach based on the reviews I have read. Sure there are glowing reviews but there are also some reviews that make you feel this is not ready for wide release. I trust Tesla team but don't trust the new customers to pay full attention.

I feel like we will continue to chop in this range until April 1st. I don't see us trading north of 200 or south of 160 at least until ER. 160 before ER might happen if P&D is anywhere close to Troy's latest estimate. In other words I will wait for a clear break either to the upside or downside before I deploy my capital for LEAPS.