On the 1H timeframe, you can see that after the stock broke the 1h trend support at 174.6, it curled up to retest that level before gapping down the next day. This is a very common occurrence.
View attachment 1035301
On the 2H timeframe, the trend support was at 170-171. Since we have not tested it after the break down, I said there's a good chance we'll go up to test that level this week before any more downside can be expected. That's happening right now.
View attachment 1035302
Was 387k priced in? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows for sure, but what I can feel is there's at least 1 big buyer that's been buying up shares since last week. I think even if we go down to 153 or 145 that buyer is still going to buy so their existence doesn't preclude more downside from happening. I think ER date of 4/23 caught everyone by surprise a bit. What ended up happening was a lot of the 4/19 puts had to be closed, which led to 4/5 puts getting trashed as well and so we're recovering a bit here.
I think we're still going down into ER as we have made a lower low compared to the 166 low 2 weeks ago. That previous bounce is looking mighty like an ABC dead cat so I think we're in another leg down and not some retracement of that bounce. It's bouncing nicely now, but as we approach ER, sellers are going to resurface.
Multiple falling wedges can be drawn on the chart which shows this crash is now a bit long in the tooth. We're also approaching the end of a seasonally weak period for the stock which ends around the end of May. So I think 145, maybe a tiny bit lower. Falling wedges typically see each of their sides touched 3 times before terminating and we've only seen 2 touches to the downside. One more is due.
