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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Did anyone throw any bucks at this trade yesterday or this week? The +c180 for 4/5/24?
Thus same guy predicting <100
He’s not calling for <$100, lol. He was just laying out the levels both up and down.
I found him to be from the reasonable and non-hype accounts to follow on X.
Those trades always look great in hindsight. But what are the odds of a 5% runup on the third day after a disastrous P&D? Not many people take such short term far OTM positions because 99% of the time you’re throwing money away. I did two year backtesting of a strategy with super cheap 7,5 and 10 OTM puts and calls bought the day before expiry. That was over 100 trades and hardly any of them were profitable, and the profit was certainly not enough to compensate for the many total losses.
A local low only as he's saying we're in wave C, which is part of a dead cat.
It doesn’t look like there’s enough space left in that wedge to make it all the way to earnings. Maybe we will break out before then.
Wow, is this right?
"Note the $180 C for today was up +1000% near the peak with gamma at one point 0.07 and delta near 0.29."
"Note the $180 C for today was up +1000% near the peak with gamma at one point 0.07 and delta near 0.29."
At least today gave us an opening to sell again the short calls we closed for gains at $164 earlier this week
No Ford FSD licensing rabbits:
FORD PULLS OUT OF EV | SHIFTS TO HYBRIDS | LOST BILLIONS
Ford is delaying all-electric vehicle launches and moving focus to hybrids.
The move follows a noticeable $4.7 billion loss in Ford's electric division, contrasting with a $7.5 billion profit in traditional and hybrid vehicles.
Source: The New York Times
FORD PULLS OUT OF EV | SHIFTS TO HYBRIDS | LOST BILLIONS
Ford is delaying all-electric vehicle launches and moving focus to hybrids.
The move follows a noticeable $4.7 billion loss in Ford's electric division, contrasting with a $7.5 billion profit in traditional and hybrid vehicles.
Source: The New York Times
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So, anybody have a take on NVDA for 4/12? I'm not in panic mode, but I am more exposed now than I had planned on. (I have three short put contracts each: 4/12@$800, @$900; 4/19@$900, 4/26@$850, 5/17@$900.) I was planning on 6 contracts being assigned, but I can handle an extra 3 if I have to.
I, for one, am happily -40x $885 for tomorrow 4/5. Whether they will expire or be assigned tomorrow, I couldn’t guess, but if they are assigned then I’m fairly confident 4/12 will be higher than 4/5 and all will be well. A week is quite a bit of time in NVDA-land. YMMV and NFA, of course.
I don't KNOW. This is GUESSWORK and SPECULATION.
But I do have 1 idea that I think worth mentioning because if my guess is right I can see this having the same sort of share price impact as the Hertz announcement (you might not agree with the impact, were this even true).
I begin with this:
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What Is the Mystery Warren Buffett Stock?
Our seven best guesses on what stock Berkshire bought.
Berkshire Hathaway got permission from the SEC to hold something they were buying confidential at the end of Q4. We're now at the end of Q1 and I wouldn't think they would get an extension. What it is, we'll know what it is soon.
I can find links but if you've been reading Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders, and I believe particularly strongly worded in this year's letter, is the idea that Berkshire is large enough now that there is very little remaining in the world that is large enough to move the needle on Berkshire earnings. There won't be outsized returns going forward because they need 10s of billions invested to sort of shift the elephant.
The counter to this observation is that Tesla doesn't check all of the boxes for a Berkshire investment (the linked article has the list - worth a read, and Tesla isn't on their list of candidate companies). I don't know where Buffett would put Tesla on the "able and high grade management scale". My best guess is low/bad, but I can make an argument for good.
The good argument amounts to "yeah Elon does all sorts of things that look childish and get him bad press, he's also a wickedly successful serial entrepreneur. Every business is laser focused on being economic, and not just leaning on overwhelming investment to paper over shortcomings. His businesses are cash flow positive very early, he doesn't like debt. And he runs them as long term concerns and value creators, not figuring out how to financially engineer this quarter and maybe this year to look good". After a couple of decades of repeated success using technology development to create a moat that others struggle with crossing, maybe its not luck and he really is that good.
I put those 2 together with the fact that they already are invested in the EV space (BYD) so they do have some knowledge along those lines, and that has me thinking that while Tesla doesn't obviously look like a typical Berkshire investment, Apple didn't either when they started there, and I believe its become their largest public company holding. Ergo - what if Berkshire Hathaway is that big buyer and they've been at it for months?
If Berkshire IS establishing a large position in Tesla, then realize that they are just about the ultimate buy and hold investor. Whatever they are buying is disappearing from the theoretical and real float. They don't trade in and out. Less supply with unchanged demand makes for a higher share price.
The main thing though is that IF Berkshire is establishing a large position that can move the needle for Berkshire, then that'll also provide a stamp of approval for the company. I don't know what would happen in response, but that sounds like something that could be a repeat of the Hertz announcement.
In fact an almost literal repeat. The thing about the Hertz announcement was that it didn't actually change anything in the supply / demand picture. Yeah there were 100k or whatever more orders, in an order book that couldn't get cleared anyway. In terms of the real long term value of the company, the value that I saw (and still see) was the stamp of approval Hertz provided. "Hey look - a serious business that knows what they're doing can rely on Tesla" (something like that).
Am I smoking fruit loops?
I have tremendous respect for you but I think you've gone full Toucan Sam. I hope I'm wrong!Am I smoking fruit loops?
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