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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
An yes…..the Buffet rumor that never dies. He’s done this before and it obviously did not turn out to be TSLA that he boughtI don't KNOW. This is GUESSWORK and SPECULATION.
But I do have 1 idea that I think worth mentioning because if my guess is right I can see this having the same sort of share price impact as the Hertz announcement (you might not agree with the impact, were this even true).
I begin with this:
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What Is the Mystery Warren Buffett Stock?
Our seven best guesses on what stock Berkshire bought.www.morningstar.com
Berkshire Hathaway got permission from the SEC to hold something they were buying confidential at the end of Q4. We're now at the end of Q1 and I wouldn't think they would get an extension. What it is, we'll know what it is soon.
I can find links but if you've been reading Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders, and I believe particularly strongly worded in this year's letter, is the idea that Berkshire is large enough now that there is very little remaining in the world that is large enough to move the needle on Berkshire earnings. There won't be outsized returns going forward because they need 10s of billions invested to sort of shift the elephant.
The counter to this observation is that Tesla doesn't check all of the boxes for a Berkshire investment (the linked article has the list - worth a read, and Tesla isn't on their list of candidate companies). I don't know where Buffett would put Tesla on the "able and high grade management scale". My best guess is low/bad, but I can make an argument for good.
The good argument amounts to "yeah Elon does all sorts of things that look childish and get him bad press, he's also a wickedly successful serial entrepreneur. Every business is laser focused on being economic, and not just leaning on overwhelming investment to paper over shortcomings. His businesses are cash flow positive very early, he doesn't like debt. And he runs them as long term concerns and value creators, not figuring out how to financially engineer this quarter and maybe this year to look good". After a couple of decades of repeated success using technology development to create a moat that others struggle with crossing, maybe its not luck and he really is that good.
I put those 2 together with the fact that they already are invested in the EV space (BYD) so they do have some knowledge along those lines, and that has me thinking that while Tesla doesn't obviously look like a typical Berkshire investment, Apple didn't either when they started there, and I believe its become their largest public company holding. Ergo - what if Berkshire Hathaway is that big buyer and they've been at it for months?
If Berkshire IS establishing a large position in Tesla, then realize that they are just about the ultimate buy and hold investor. Whatever they are buying is disappearing from the theoretical and real float. They don't trade in and out. Less supply with unchanged demand makes for a higher share price.
The main thing though is that IF Berkshire is establishing a large position that can move the needle for Berkshire, then that'll also provide a stamp of approval for the company. I don't know what would happen in response, but that sounds like something that could be a repeat of the Hertz announcement.
In fact an almost literal repeat. The thing about the Hertz announcement was that it didn't actually change anything in the supply / demand picture. Yeah there were 100k or whatever more orders, in an order book that couldn't get cleared anyway. In terms of the real long term value of the company, the value that I saw (and still see) was the stamp of approval Hertz provided. "Hey look - a serious business that knows what they're doing can rely on Tesla" (something like that).
Am I smoking fruit loops?
To Jim's point and others , I have a position that was lime green mid day, until it wasn't. Check my post , I was going to watch it bleed "theta" but it went blood red quickly... some works were.soiken, haha. The difference is what could have been 50% credit after buy back OR possibly buying out the position at a 150% loss. I let it ride , will deal with AM.
I've been thinking the same thing for a few months now. So no you're not smoking fruit loopsI don't KNOW. This is GUESSWORK and SPECULATION.
But I do have 1 idea that I think worth mentioning because if my guess is right I can see this having the same sort of share price impact as the Hertz announcement (you might not agree with the impact, were this even true).
I begin with this:
What Is the Mystery Warren Buffett Stock?
Our seven best guesses on what stock Berkshire bought.
Berkshire Hathaway got permission from the SEC to hold something they were buying confidential at the end of Q4. We're now at the end of Q1 and I wouldn't think they would get an extension. What it is, we'll know what it is soon.
I can find links but if you've been reading Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders, and I believe particularly strongly worded in this year's letter, is the idea that Berkshire is large enough now that there is very little remaining in the world that is large enough to move the needle on Berkshire earnings. There won't be outsized returns going forward because they need 10s of billions invested to sort of shift the elephant.
The counter to this observation is that Tesla doesn't check all of the boxes for a Berkshire investment (the linked article has the list - worth a read, and Tesla isn't on their list of candidate companies). I don't know where Buffett would put Tesla on the "able and high grade management scale". My best guess is low/bad, but I can make an argument for good.
The good argument amounts to "yeah Elon does all sorts of things that look childish and get him bad press, he's also a wickedly successful serial entrepreneur. Every business is laser focused on being economic, and not just leaning on overwhelming investment to paper over shortcomings. His businesses are cash flow positive very early, he doesn't like debt. And he runs them as long term concerns and value creators, not figuring out how to financially engineer this quarter and maybe this year to look good". After a couple of decades of repeated success using technology development to create a moat that others struggle with crossing, maybe its not luck and he really is that good.
I put those 2 together with the fact that they already are invested in the EV space (BYD) so they do have some knowledge along those lines, and that has me thinking that while Tesla doesn't obviously look like a typical Berkshire investment, Apple didn't either when they started there, and I believe its become their largest public company holding. Ergo - what if Berkshire Hathaway is that big buyer and they've been at it for months?
If Berkshire IS establishing a large position in Tesla, then realize that they are just about the ultimate buy and hold investor. Whatever they are buying is disappearing from the theoretical and real float. They don't trade in and out. Less supply with unchanged demand makes for a higher share price.
The main thing though is that IF Berkshire is establishing a large position that can move the needle for Berkshire, then that'll also provide a stamp of approval for the company. I don't know what would happen in response, but that sounds like something that could be a repeat of the Hertz announcement.
In fact an almost literal repeat. The thing about the Hertz announcement was that it didn't actually change anything in the supply / demand picture. Yeah there were 100k or whatever more orders, in an order book that couldn't get cleared anyway. In terms of the real long term value of the company, the value that I saw (and still see) was the stamp of approval Hertz provided. "Hey look - a serious business that knows what they're doing can rely on Tesla" (something like that).
Am I smoking fruit loops?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I bought some +175c. Didn't know it would caused such a seismic reaction. If it blew your CC out of the water then accept my apology Tivo.
Yesterday when the SP was looking to drop below 164, I sold 170CC for 4/12. Of course now they are very red. I guess I will wait and see what happens next week, but wonder at what point I should roll them to after ER. As bad as P&D was, we are one Buffett or FSD announcement away from a massive pop....
my thinking is: why so strong?
If bull trap, wheres the room? Theres no room. You get up to what? 183? 187? theres a lot of natural supply in that range. Without room you cant get enough bulls in for exit liquidity. without room and if the target is low to sub 100s, why not just get it done right after P&D? Nobody expected 387k. Which is why Im very invested in the 140-145 zone.
If not bull trap, then what? Short squeeze cuz of weird ER date, sure. But, who the hell put in a floor at 160 and started all this? Can it be real accumulation? 50k was huge, but so was -35% drop. However, if you are a risk averse PM, which most of them are, why are you buying agressively before hearing guidance from management first? FSD related, possibly.
If bull trap, wheres the room? Theres no room. You get up to what? 183? 187? theres a lot of natural supply in that range. Without room you cant get enough bulls in for exit liquidity. without room and if the target is low to sub 100s, why not just get it done right after P&D? Nobody expected 387k. Which is why Im very invested in the 140-145 zone.
If not bull trap, then what? Short squeeze cuz of weird ER date, sure. But, who the hell put in a floor at 160 and started all this? Can it be real accumulation? 50k was huge, but so was -35% drop. However, if you are a risk averse PM, which most of them are, why are you buying agressively before hearing guidance from management first? FSD related, possibly.
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So seems we’re basically in limbo and whoever is propping the stock up (Tesla? Ron Baron? Elon accumulating 25%? Some other consortium?) is helping hold $158-$160 as a floor afterall. Especially if we make it up to $187-$190 into ER, then a new ~$30 drop ($158) after a poor ER with no new rabbits may suffice for a spanking.
But a doomy and depressed Elon again on the call with gems such as “money furnace”; “still digging our own grave”; “FSD or bust”; “don’t care if people aren’t buying out cars, we have bigger plans…mars”; “no Model 2 until 2027”; “we need a red wave or this country is done”; etc may tank hard. Dunno if the Maginot line will hold.
What is it about FSD that can be so alluring to buy this aggressively in the face of declining sales and margins?
considering the monumental impact that FSD is gonna have, Im not seeing this as agressive buying. More like getting in on the ground floor.
Chances are ER will tank it a bit, but we dont know that for sure and neither does big money. maybe they are comfortable with buying the next tranche down at 140, too.
On its own, nothing, especially in the short term. With a 12-month window though there is potential. It doesn't make an easy options play though.
Most retail investors don't buy short-term. So, the opportunity is to capitalize on short-term movements that the bulk of shareholders just don't really care about. Specific to Tesla though... I don't feel like I have any edge between now and ER, aside from possibly selling some CCs if we get a bounce. It is too low to sell here (for me), and not low enough that I would necessarily feel a need to buy more. After ER or a big dip down that might change.
Opportunity for Mary & GM to swoop in there and corner the market! /s
Does this come up almost every quarter when BH is buying a mystery stock. TSLA bulls get all excited and it usually ends up being something like Chevron...?I don't KNOW. This is GUESSWORK and SPECULATION.
But I do have 1 idea that I think worth mentioning because if my guess is right I can see this having the same sort of share price impact as the Hertz announcement (you might not agree with the impact, were this even true).
I begin with this:
What Is the Mystery Warren Buffett Stock?
Our seven best guesses on what stock Berkshire bought.
Berkshire Hathaway got permission from the SEC to hold something they were buying confidential at the end of Q4. We're now at the end of Q1 and I wouldn't think they would get an extension. What it is, we'll know what it is soon.
I can find links but if you've been reading Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders, and I believe particularly strongly worded in this year's letter, is the idea that Berkshire is large enough now that there is very little remaining in the world that is large enough to move the needle on Berkshire earnings. There won't be outsized returns going forward because they need 10s of billions invested to sort of shift the elephant.
The counter to this observation is that Tesla doesn't check all of the boxes for a Berkshire investment (the linked article has the list - worth a read, and Tesla isn't on their list of candidate companies). I don't know where Buffett would put Tesla on the "able and high grade management scale". My best guess is low/bad, but I can make an argument for good.
The good argument amounts to "yeah Elon does all sorts of things that look childish and get him bad press, he's also a wickedly successful serial entrepreneur. Every business is laser focused on being economic, and not just leaning on overwhelming investment to paper over shortcomings. His businesses are cash flow positive very early, he doesn't like debt. And he runs them as long term concerns and value creators, not figuring out how to financially engineer this quarter and maybe this year to look good". After a couple of decades of repeated success using technology development to create a moat that others struggle with crossing, maybe its not luck and he really is that good.
I put those 2 together with the fact that they already are invested in the EV space (BYD) so they do have some knowledge along those lines, and that has me thinking that while Tesla doesn't obviously look like a typical Berkshire investment, Apple didn't either when they started there, and I believe its become their largest public company holding. Ergo - what if Berkshire Hathaway is that big buyer and they've been at it for months?
If Berkshire IS establishing a large position in Tesla, then realize that they are just about the ultimate buy and hold investor. Whatever they are buying is disappearing from the theoretical and real float. They don't trade in and out. Less supply with unchanged demand makes for a higher share price.
The main thing though is that IF Berkshire is establishing a large position that can move the needle for Berkshire, then that'll also provide a stamp of approval for the company. I don't know what would happen in response, but that sounds like something that could be a repeat of the Hertz announcement.
In fact an almost literal repeat. The thing about the Hertz announcement was that it didn't actually change anything in the supply / demand picture. Yeah there were 100k or whatever more orders, in an order book that couldn't get cleared anyway. In terms of the real long term value of the company, the value that I saw (and still see) was the stamp of approval Hertz provided. "Hey look - a serious business that knows what they're doing can rely on Tesla" (something like that).
Am I smoking fruit loops?
That being said, anyone paying attention and wanting to buy TSLA stock would normally be waiting for a serious correction after the train wreck P&D before buying, the exception could be someone with very deep pockets and a very long timescale who doesn't care too much on the daily price
That's a lot of wonga!
I have 7x -p950's in play, already rolled to next week, I could take assignment on these, but would prefer not to, maybe 5x, then straddle with 5x puts weekly, would probably be quite profitable
IV is pretty low on NVDA for the moment, but I would expect that to rise as earnings approaches (I have zero clue when that is), I also expect some FOMO on this stock more than others
So not too worried about it right now
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Looks like that because normally after such poor P&D, already being on the ridge for capitulation the 145 gap would have been filled. Only because of likely S&P correction to 4900 (after a little pullback) coming week(s) I will wait just a bit to go all in around hopefully a bit under 160. But we might expect some news about who is really steadily buying the dips big time (but not so big that we get a squeeze yet, so somebody with deep pockets and a lot of patience, trying to keep on buying low.)
I got caught up in this hype a few years ago, around s & p inclusion. BH owns the largest dealer network in the country was my conclusion.
Dealership Locations | Berkshire Hathaway Automotive
Find a Local Berkshire Hathaway Dealership. Learn more about our dealerships and the vehicles and services they have to offer.
www.berkshirehathawayautomotive.com
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Just a thought; Elon wants to buy in before we go up hugely and therefore could have plans to re-IPO X (former twitter) to free up money to buy back TSLA. Some people will know of this plan and could take advantage of the relative doldrums we are in. Just a thought.
This issue with all of this is that by many metrics TSLA is still quite richly valued.
If Time Traveler is correct and this IS because of "something that someone knows" ...then there's no reason to necessarily expect this will stop rising at $180, is there?
...so perhaps not wise to buy Puts or sell Calls at $180...? But to wait for @dl003 's bearish candle instead.
...So many unsubstantiated attributions of events... Did someone really know something or is it just chance, or common knowledge- I guess oftentimes Max Pain happens to happen. No telling what will work - friend of mine won a big chili cook-off by entering a simple can of Hormel Chili he just heated up and entered... Point being, all the known Chili-masters in the competition didn't really know anything special after all.
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