Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon trying to save the stock from filling "that" gap...

Wouldn’t surprise me if he decided on a reveal date just a few hours ago, after the Reuters debacle. Hopefully the revealed car will not take as long to go into production as Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster. Another scary thought: if Robotaxi and Model 2 are basically the same car, will the reveal osborne Model 3/Y for 1.5 year?

 

[Max Plaid]

Is that a negative or a positive (ignoring the market’s initial knee jerk reaction)? It will probably depend on whether it revives the doubts sown about the priority of Model 2.

Indeed, note that it's "Robotaxi" not "Compact", IMO most folks want the Compact not the Robo, the Robot is still a bit of a fantasy in most people's minds, including many here

 

[traxila]

That's the best part of 6 months away... talk about stock pumping!!

Wondered why the SP had popped...

That's going to screw up a lot of folks that left -c165's to expire

Edit: I bet this is the first time the rest of Tesla has heard of this deadline

Edit 2: is he even allowed to tweet that, isn't it "material"?

After hours.

Never let your options expire. Pay the five or fifty dollars and close them before EOD.

How about me feeling good that I sold the last of all the 162.5C expiring today I bought on the drop for 3 bucks before the close.?

 

[elasalle]

So I forgot to close out some $175 calls expiring today. Will this after hours action screw me over? Lol

if it hits by 5:30 pm then yes

 

[Knightshade]

Wouldn’t surprise me if he decided on a reveal date just a few hours ago, after the Reuters debacle. Hopefully the revealed car will not take as long to go into production as Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster.

I mean if you want to be Max Cynical you could come up with things like:

Date is a couple weeks after likely Q2 ER call-- leaving some reason for stock to remain optimistic through two potentially bad ERs
Actual unveil might be another AI day with promises and videos and no real product besides showing a prototype Gen3 car or something that (as of 8/8) still ain't actually autonomous

 

[Jim Holder]

I've closed most of my CC's next week. I'm scared. If it's going to shoot up, please do it now.

Excellent instincts as usual!

Let’s see where this run can take us.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Elon trying to save the stock from filling "that" gap...

I wonder if that will have the Hertz effect

 

[Cherry Wine]

if it hits by 5:30 pm then yes

Just confirmed this with my brokerage. Just have to wait out the next 11 minutes - I like my chances. As long as Elon doesn't Tweet another pump...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Excellent instincts as usual!

Let’s see where this run can take us.

View attachment 1035998

When @dl003 posts like that I pay attention. I actually bought some LONG calls today and made sure I didn't have any covered calls up for next week.

Got lucky.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776358276416037189

 

[elasalle]

Wouldn’t surprise me if he decided on a reveal date just a few hours ago, after the Reuters debacle. Hopefully the revealed car will not take as long to go into production as Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster. Another scary thought: if Robotaxi and Model 2 are basically the same car, will the reveal osborne Model 3/Y for 1.5 year?

If we looks at tweets from Ashok etc posted earlier this week like - "this is the beginning of the end" - then I think internally confidence in robotaxi grew after v12 release.

Tesla likely thinks they have a generalized solution where pending issues are because they haven't trained that particular scenario with like 1M clips etc.
If they look at disengaments, failed scenarios and compare with their training data set - and see that most fall in bucket where 1M samples+ is not there yet, then it would further boost their confidence in this belief.

Even Reuters might have got hold of the half truth, but spun it negatively - so I think Elon took a preemptive strike before some other outlet reported.
ARK might have been unto something since they bought a lot recently ..

Lets see where the winds blow ...

cheers!!

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776360079937171550

 

[MikeC]

I let 5x 4/5 -p170 assign - I wonder if they will.

 

[elasalle]

I let 5x 4/5 -p170 assign - I wonder if they will.

Same here( 1 put) , but at 5:30 price 170+ and MM scavenging for shares, so unlikley I think. (just open position today , and earlier it had like 800$ loss )
If assigned, mon it might shoot up to 180+ - so win-win

Mon, I need to move the 165 PUTS to 200 PUTS ...

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, serves me right for not being sensible and just closing out my -c165's into close then waiting until Monday to resell, but it needed a white-swan to stop the stock spiralling, maybe this was it, maybe not. There's a lot fundamentally wrong for the moment with Tesla's numbers versus the current valuation and a lot riding on these future products still, and a very nasty earnings in a few weeks - as we discussed earlier this week, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they make a loss in Q1, hence all the Musk pumping this week

As for me, it's fine, I have my shtcalls to roll against, in fact I have a lot of upside cover: 60x Dec 2025 +c200, 40x June 2026 +c200, 26x Jan 2026 +C270, 100x June +c300, 100x Jan 2025 +c300

So rolling out the 100x -c165 isn't a problem

But it is a bit annoying to have foreseen this bad quarter, positioned for it, puts in place and all, then when the quarter does report, it's worse than anyone could have imagined, and yet here we are

An odd hobby we have, is it not?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Once again, the 4H uptrend held. A lot more bears were trapped today compared to the first 3 times.
View attachment 1035899
I've closed most of my CC's next week. I'm scared. If it's going to shoot up, please do it now. If it's going to break down, that's fine too. My heart can't take this suspense anymore.
View attachment 1035900

Didn’t see your post through my OR day.
However I closed my CCs too. I need a direct update of your trades lol

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, serves me right for not being sensible and just closing out my -c165's into close then waiting until Monday to resell, but it needed a white-swan to stop the stock spiralling, maybe this was it, maybe not. There's a lot fundamentally wrong for the moment with Tesla's numbers versus the current valuation and a lot riding on these future products still, and a very nasty earnings in a few weeks - as we discussed earlier this week, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they make a loss in Q1, hence all the Musk pumping this week

As for me, it's fine, I have my shtcalls to roll against, in fact I have a lot of upside cover: 60x Dec 2025 +c200, 40x June 2026 +c200, 26x Jan 2026 +C270, 100x June +c300, 100x Jan 2025 +c300

So rolling out the 100x -c165 isn't a problem

But it is a bit annoying to have foreseen this bad quarter, positioned for it, puts in place and all, then when the quarter does report, it's worse than anyone could have imagined, and yet here we are

An odd hobby we have, is it not?

Yeah seems like we all braced and positioned ourselves accordingly and were initially correct in doing some considering the trainwreck that Q1 was and yet here we are above 170 . It's honestly quite annoying right now...but no way I'm going to chase it.

The Robotaxi pump only has legs if FSD progress continues to accelerate. If progress, either through the remaining functionality or through disengagement rates, stagnates throughout the summer, the Robotaxi unveil event won't have any legs under it.

 

[Jim Holder]

Anyone here buying some TSL (1.5x TSLA) for a shot at a pop or not a good play for some reason. Not seeing much movement on it AH, hence the question.

 

[Tachyon]

Is it possible that Elon has been hearing from his recruiting team . May be it’s gotten very tough to recruit AI talent for Tesla and xAI. One of the biggest recruiting tool is “stock based compensation packages” or “ stock options “.
From a potential new recruit perspective , what good is a stock based compensation if the stock has been underperforming the rest of the tech industry and whole US market for past 3 yrs. It’s definitely a negative against the company .
For many of us here , we have bought into the stock long before the massive run of 2020 and 2021 and the non performance of the stock for past 3 yrs is a no biggie as we have already had massive gains . But for others including top tier recruits , it’s a big red flag.

And , so it’s time for the “bigger than Apple Aramco combined “ pump until after end of 2 nd quarter when we all expect the share price to start moving up.
I see this as trying to keep the lights on for the SP until then .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is it possible that Elon has been hearing from his recruiting team . May be it’s gotten very tough to recruit AI talent for Tesla and xAI. One of the biggest recruiting tool is “stock based compensation packages” or “ stock options “.
From a potential new recruit perspective , what good is a stock based compensation if the stock has been underperforming the rest of the tech industry and whole US market for past 3 yrs. It’s definitely a negative against the company .
For many of us here , we have bought into the stock long before the massive run of 2020 and 2021 and the non performance of the stock for past 3 yrs is a no biggie as we have already had massive gains . But for others including top tier recruits , it’s a big red flag.

And , so it’s time for the “bigger than Apple Aramco combined “ pump until after end of 2 nd quarter when we all expect the share price to start moving up.
I see this as trying to keep the lights on for the SP until then .

The counter to that argument though is if you're an engineer and you come in to interview with Tesla and very much think they're on the right path with their vision/autonomy goals, then you have more incentive to take Tesla's offer because you're getting your signing bonus at the lower valuation, which means more shares for you + you're getting in at the lower valuation so you have the potential for a 5-10X bagger.

If the stock was at 300 or 400/share, same engineer could be equally as impressed with the tech but realizes that going with Tesla will mean less shares (since signing bonus is always a $ value divided the share price which determines how many shares you get) + they it'll only be a 2-4X bagger.

So there's pro's and con's to attracting talent if the share price is low and also if its high