Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

View attachment 1036503

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/ron-baron-who-runs-one-of-the-best-performing-funds-says-tesla-could-hit-1500-a-share-by-2030.html

"TSLA could go as high as $15000 says person who holds a shitload of TSLA"...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just scanning the tesla.com here in Belgium, all the "available now" cars have discounts, even those as listed as "in transit", some of them quite substantial

The discounts on the Model Y configuration I bought 6 weeks ago have doubled - from $2,500 to $5,000.

 

[Max Plaid]

Nice post.!.. honestly, we just need to get about half a dozen of us in a room and we could just kill this!

I'll bring the beers...

 

[Max Plaid]

The discounts on the Model Y configuration I bought 6 weeks ago have doubled - from $2,500 to $5,000.

I'd actually quite like to switch from MXP to MS/P, but the last trade-in offer on my Model X Plaid was insulting, so... maybe I should ask again, perhaps they're desperate to shift new cars...

 

[tivoboy]

I'll bring the beers...

I DO like me a Framboise. ;-)

 

[Surfer of Life]

Tesla Chief Designer @woodhaus2 on the rumors that Tesla's $25k car with a steering wheel is cancelled: "I would just say stay tuned. Don’t always believe what you read."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777029442935964066

Boy, that questioner sure likes to hear herself talk.

 

[Max Plaid]

I DO like me a Framboise. ;-)

A sweet one, like Liefemans, or something a bit more robust like the recently release Kasteel (7% ABV)

 

[Jim Holder]

I’m standing pat, if we get a bounce I’ll be selling calls, but I’m not adding even if we break into the 15x, or possibly even 14x.

Yikes. Lemme guess -C200 5/17 for around $8.00 would be about right?

 

[Jim Holder]

Boy, that questioner sure likes to hear herself talk.

So true! She gave him too much time to craft an answer. Such a question you’re supposed to ask fast and swift and shut up.

 

[tivoboy]

Yikes. Lemme guess -C200 5/17 for around $8.00 would be about right?

Yeah, i might bring it in a bit for even more premium…let’s see how tomorrow opens and the next couple days.

I might end up with a 5/17 $175 $10, or maybe I can stretch to $180 $10..I’’d take either of those.

 

[bmd00]

Nice post.!.. honestly, we just need to get about half a dozen of us in a room and we could just kill this!

Agreed. That’s why I joined this thread. Our biggest risk is groupthink. It’s critical we all do our own research and have independent thought.

 

[tivoboy]

Agreed. That’s why I joined this thread. Our biggest risk is groupthink. It’s critical we all do our own research and have independent thought.

It’s a good point, and I DO think that there is always a risk of “confirmation bias” but I ALSO think there is a wisdom in crowds, and HERE at least more often than not, the OBJECTIVE analysis and interpretation is a triangle, or a square or a pentagon or a hexagon and not a circle or a straight line. As a shape, to focus concentration they all work to create a nexus. And from that, we weight analysis and hopefully, at a minimum, directional indication.

Bem Vindo!

 

[bmd00]

This is great, thank you!

With the long bottom wick on Friday's candle (which may just be an artifact of the false news plunge) what is your sense of where we are now in the trend and heading to next, and are you positioning for upside, more downside, or flat?

More downside

 

[Jim Holder]

I might end up with a 5/17 $175 $10, or maybe I can stretch to $180 $10..I’’d take either of those.

Riding close to the I see. Is that because you’re trying to get rid of shares or you don’t think it will hit/plan to roll?

 

[tivoboy]

Riding close to the I see. Is that because you’re trying to get rid of shares or you don’t think it will hit/plan to roll?

Don’t think it will hit… that’s about it .

Here’s my medium duration thesis… $125 before $225.

 

[Jim Holder]

Don’t think it will hit… that’s about it .

Here’s my medium duration thesis… $125 before $225.

Wow

If so, high risk for anybody carrying -P that can suffer down to $145 max, probably not a bad idea to cut them on any pop this week, and then watch how things play out.

 

[tivoboy]

Wow

If so, high risk for anybody carrying -P that can suffer down to $145 max, probably not a bad idea to cut them on any pop this week, and then watch how things play out.

this is ONE man’s person’s opinion… but I tell it like I see it… but recall I’m also medium term SHORT SPY, QQQ, NDQ and long VIX but still holding LARGE MSFT, LLY, NVDA, AMGN, ADBE and 3/4 a dozen other positions that I’m long but writing calls against for MAY/JUNE. On real downside moves, I’ll buy LEAPS out in Mar 2025, across indices and equites. But, for TSLA as a singular stock - which I hold but write against, I’m expecting more downside before stabilization OR significant upside. there’s a more than medium to long term value here, but it’s in the lower 100’s.. IMO, and only then do I think we’ll see significant enough buying to support it, regardless of narrative, or DELIVERIES or E, or IRA credits or rebates, etc. As much as I like to think in 1-2 quarters we’ll be through the bad news of E, and not yet at the Hopium or RT, we could just as easily be moving into the Nov narrative hyperBOWL that IRA will go away entirely and that would drop any of the margin uptick to near zero. So, it’s dancing on a knifes edge, and I’d rather be just sharpening the blade.

 

[elasalle]

1Q numbers will be forgiven and kinda get negated by the FSD/ robotaxi FOMO

Reveal is after 2Q , so sideways or up is my take … cheers!!

 

[thenewguy1979]

Don’t think it will hit… that’s about it .

Here’s my medium duration thesis… $125 before $225.

How about hype to 185 then crash to 125 after ER.......

We'll see how the hype wagon can pump the stock on Monday or whether the discount will have any immediate impact.

 

[strago13]

1Q numbers will be forgiven and kinda get negated by the FSD/ robotaxi FOMO

Reveal is after 2Q , so sideways or up is my take … cheers!!

This is my take after q1 FSD recognition