Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[traxila]

FSD is muddying the waters, and there are buyers out there who agree or this SP would be in the 140s already. I thought it would be.

Price discounts are real and multiple, but if people pony up for the FSD simultaneously then everything changes. The software is written while investments continue but profit margins still go up.

Drove into Buffalo yesterday for the first time. FSD took me everywhere flawlessly. Drove better than this unfamiliar writer would have.

Macros a big deal as always. Continued strength and maybe TSLA runs a bit. Bears everywhere, including here.

 

[thenewguy1979]

guess we are now a house divided.....

that's good in a ways that can create more objectiveness

 

[2Pearls]

Already sold 100x -c165, SP going up is not a given, most of the world wants a compact car, not a robotaxi. 8/8 is a long way away and the post was clearly a stock-pump from Musk, and any reveal on 8/8 isn't going to mean a fleet of FSD taxis the next day either

And there's the small matter of the collapsing auto business, which right now is the main source of revenue

Not to mention a very, very bad earnings call coming up in a few weeks

I see no fundamental reason for the stock not to dump, nothing changed IMO. Nevertheless, it might induce some FOMO and pop, so I might just roll those -c165's up and out as a risk-reduction measure, then roll them back if/when the markets see through the smoke and mirrors

Thanks @Max Plaid for your thoughts. I 100% agree. I am amazed at some very prominent people on this forum that seem to live with blinders on not seeing reality in what is currently happening with Tesla, the Auto business and the economy right now. I am all for Tesla and TSLA Dominating in this world with all of the industry’s they are disrupting, but we are in for a very tumultuous 2-3 years. We are having problems selling the cars we currently have produced and for those people that say tesla will sell every car they produce....sure they will, but at what discount and cost to margins and EPS. I am 100% long TESLA and TSLA, but I am also realistic about the world around us and the need to make sure my money with TSLA, which has been dead money for the last 3 years is not dead money for the next 3 years.

 

[thenewguy1979]

This echo the sentiment of the short term.
Not a fan of the guy but a good watch nonetheless.

 

[Patrick66]

Frankly, I think they won’t stop at inventory only, no worse message to the market than you’re throttling factories.

It would be interesting to have detail on where there really is a "pileup" of inventory. To me, it seems like they added two weeks of inventory which for the auto industry in general isn't significant. US prices also seem comparable to (or better than) similar ICE vehicles.

I know something is going on... but putting a label on it isn't especially easy. I see more and more Teslas on the road every day

 

[Jim Holder]

I am also realistic about the world around us and the need to make sure my money with TSLA, which has been dead money for the last 3 years is not dead money for the next 3 years.

Care to share some thoughts on how you plan to do that?

 

[Knightshade]

It would be interesting to have detail on where there really is a "pileup" of inventory. To me, it seems like they added two weeks of inventory which for the auto industry in general isn't significant. US prices also seem comparable to (or better than) similar ICE vehicles.

With inventory discounts in the 5-7k range it seems the pileup is everywhere--- otherwise it'd be cheaper to send them where there ISN'T oversupply and sell them at full price.

 

[2Pearls]

Care to share some thoughts on how you plan to do that?

Sorry, I should have been clearer with that statement. I am 100% in TSLA as I believe in Tesla, and they will do well long term! But, my portfolio is not only TSLA, as I have other stocks that I own that have done very well these last few years including: NVDA, LLY, NVO, AMZN, META, NU, PLTR, MSFT, CMG, AAPL, OXY, SHOP, NOW. And, I also have lots of losers as well, but luckily, my winners have far outpaced my losers.

 

[Jim Holder]

Sorry, I should have been clearer with that statement. I am 100% in TSLA as I believe in Tesla, and they will do well long term! But, my portfolio is not only TSLA, as I have other stocks that I own that have done very well these last few years including: NVDA, LLY, NVO, AMZN, META, NU, PLTR, MSFT, CMG, AAPL, OXY, SHOP, NOW. And, I also have lots of losers as well, but luckily, my winners have far outpaced my losers.

Smart that you diversified. I’m exclusively stuck in TSLA (CB $328, technically reduced to around $260 by scalping short calls/long puts since 2022, but the CB still shows $328 since the other gains were from options). Missed the rest of the general market run on 2024 being tied up in TSLA, frustrating!

My plan is to hang in there and perhaps cut half at next touch of $260 range —if we ever see it— and start to diversify. Leaving the other half in TSLA as a long call on Tesla being successful over the long run (I’m not desperate for the money for the next few years).

My downside sink-anchor exposure is 15x -P300 6/18/26 that can handle a drop to around $138 at which point I may need a roll down and out. Otherwise I’m more or less prepared for downside and/or up. Hopefully up!

 

[2Pearls]

Smart that you diversified. I’m exclusively stuck in TSLA (CB $328, technically reduced to around $260 by scalping short calls/long puts since 2022, but the CB still shows $328 since the other gains were from options). Missed the rest of the general market run on 2024 being tied up in TSLA, frustrating!

My plan is to hang in there and perhaps cut half at next touch of $260 range —if we ever see it— and start to diversify. Leaving the other half in TSLA as a long call on Tesla being successful over the long run (I’m not desperate for the money for the next few years).

My downside sink-anchor exposure is 15x -P300 6/18/26 that can handle a drop to around $138 at which point I may need a roll down and out. Otherwise I’m more or less prepared for downside and/or up. Hopefully up!

I follow this thread and other investor threads every day and you seem to be doing very well with the scalping. I do some options but I keep it simple with put and calls, and not much risk as I keep my “bets” small so I don’t lose my shirt. Although I did go big (Puts) before P&D and I am still amazed the stock did not crater. But with TSLA the stock, I have been in it since 2013 after we test drove the Model S and that convinced us to not only buy the car, but put most (90%) of our IRA money in TSLA. And my family and friends, who I tried to convince them to buy TSLA, told me I was crazy. It was only after the 5 for 1, and 3 for 1 splits, that I took all of my profits and diversify...dumb luck and/or fortunate. I still have my initial investment in TSLA, which has been dead money. I feel confident that long term, 3-5 years, we will all be happy, but, these next few years will be volatile and not for people with weak stomachs.

 

[Patrick66]

Smart that you diversified. I’m exclusively stuck in TSLA (CB $328, technically reduced to around $260 by scalping short calls/long puts since 2022, but the CB still shows $328 since the other gains were from options).

Jim... with all due respect, take the loss... or at least half of it. Carrying around that baggage is not healthy. If your belief in Tesla is unfazed then replace the shares 1:1 with laddered DITM LEAP calls-- say $80-100 strike and various 2026 expiration. Hold onto the cash to take advantage of opportunity where it falls.

Yes, this is advice. No, don't try to sue me if it is the wrong advice. It is based on my experience over the past 25+ years of this though.

 

[wooter]

It would be interesting to have detail on where there really is a "pileup" of inventory. To me, it seems like they added two weeks of inventory which for the auto industry in general isn't significant. US prices also seem comparable to (or better than) similar ICE vehicles.

With inventory discounts in the 5-7k range it seems the pileup is everywhere--- otherwise it'd be cheaper to send them where there ISN'T oversupply and sell them at full price.

I think it's a combination of 3 situations: some inventory that's still on ships which need to do a detour because of the Red Sea antics, and market wide prices under pressure because it got harder to finance a car, together with the regular Q1 glut.

I also wonder how good the matchmaking at Tesla really is, since I see a lot of cars in transit with popular specs. I remember ordering my 2023 Model X and losing out of 3 year free supercharging (which was the incentive at the time) because it wasn't even shipped from Baltimore yet, to learn that an identical specced Model X was already available (which wasn't when I placed the original order). I ended up with a 7K discount because I canceled my original order and ordered the stock model.

Now, to be honest, only demo's and a few cars come with discount. The majority on the list in transit are there at their full price.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I think it's a combination of 3 situations: some inventory that's still on ships which need to do a detour because of the Red Sea antics, and market wide prices under pressure because it got harder to finance a car, together with the regular Q1 glut.

I also wonder how good the matchmaking at Tesla really is, since I see a lot of cars in transit with popular specs. I remember ordering my 2023 Model X and losing out of 3 year free supercharging (which was the incentive at the time) because it wasn't even shipped from Baltimore yet, to learn that an identical specced Model X was already available (which wasn't when I placed the original order). I ended up with a 7K discount because I canceled my original order and ordered the stock model.

Now, to be honest, only demo's and a few cars come with discount. The majority on the list in transit are there at their full price.

I saw many buyers interested in buying a Tesla over the years now switch to the ID4, Ioniq5 and BZ4X. Their reasoning was:

1) EV incentives being slashed
2) Financing in the 2% offered by other companies vs 6.99% for Tesla
3) Generous trade in value offered by other car companies which facilitates switching their ICE to EVs walking in and out of the dealership
4) option to buy their lease down the road because they think they might have more money miraculously in 3-4 years.

At the end of the day, the majority of those living paycheck to paycheck look at 2 things:
1) Their monthly gas saving
2) Monthly payment (or weekly payment)

There is not so much brand loyalty I guess anymore.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Max Pain for next week is currently at 170. We will see how it changes next week....

No change, lol.

 

[BornToFly]

No change, lol.

Yeah, funny how the market being closed, so nobody can reposition their options based on the post-market news, can do that

 

[Jim Holder]

This week's GEX profile as of now:

 

[Knightshade]

I think it's a combination of 3 situations: some inventory that's still on ships which need to do a detour because of the Red Sea antics, and market wide prices under pressure because it got harder to finance a car, together with the regular Q1 glut.

0 ships detouring in the red sea are carrying cars bound for the US though so that's entirely irrelevant to the glut of Y inventory in the US prompting $5000-$7000 inventory discounts here

All those cars were made right here in the US in California and Texas.

As to Europe, they already had an inventory glut before the shipping and berlin terrorism stuff... the fact they still do after that is...not great- but since I haven't looked directly at the inventory and discounts there I'll take your word for it being, I guess, better at least after those factors?

Now, to be honest, only demo's and a few cars come with discount. The majority on the list in transit are there at their full price.

Looking right now at US tesla inventory I'm seeing triple-digit # of just Y LR AWD (add other configs and it's more) all with inventory discounts-- and of those only only 4 are marked a demo cars, so >95% are not.

Switching to Y RWD only ONE is a demo car.

Again maybe EU is better, but the US does not seem to be.

 

[Max Plaid]

Yeah, funny how the market being closed, so nobody can reposition their options based on the post-market news, can do that

Indeed, if anything it should be lower after Friday main session...

 

[Max Plaid]

0 ships detouring in the red sea are carrying cars bound for the US though so that's entirely irrelevant to the glut of Y inventory in the US prompting $5000-$7000 inventory discounts here

All those cars were made right here in the US in California and Texas.

As to Europe, they already had an inventory glut before the shipping and berlin terrorism stuff... the fact they still do after that is...not great- but since I haven't looked directly at the inventory and discounts there I'll take your word for it being, I guess, better at least after those factors?




Looking right now at US tesla inventory I'm seeing triple-digit # of just Y LR AWD (add other configs and it's more) all with inventory discounts-- and of those only only 4 are marked a demo cars, so >95% are not.

Switching to Y RWD only ONE is a demo car.

Again maybe EU is better, but the US does not seem to be.

Agreed, I'd actually be more bullish if Tesla had delivered 380k and produced 390k, this just looks like no-one is buying them right now, simple as that. And what's going to shift them? Cut the prices, cut production, what's it to be?

As for Musk's AH Tweet on Friday, I see Pre-Market has seen some decent volume, but the SP has not run away, at least not yet...

If folks think 8/8 will also be a reveal for the compact car, then that's going to be one hell of a Osbourne effect until it comes to production. If it's just a square box on wheels the they'll be disappointed that there's no Compact reveal...

Honestly would be better for the whole robotaxi thing to just begin with existing cars, will take years to get it up and running and FSD more widely available, no need for a specific vehicle yet, IMO

But then again I don't think Musk thought about this too much before blurting it out on Friday

 

[UncaNed]

This echo the sentiment of the short term.
Not a fan of the guy but a good watch nonetheless.

Lots of pointless jabbering; when does the relevant stuff start ??:?? TIA.