Buying SPX/NQ puts/calls on VIX in anticipation?
Some are saying the Fed will look more at jobless claims than a bump in CPI. Also Powell: “We didn’t get rattled with occasional lower CPI numbers, we’re not going to get rattled with higher numbers.”
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Buying SPX/NQ puts/calls on VIX in anticipation?
Some are saying the Fed will look more at jobless claims than a bump in CPI. Also Powell: “We didn’t get rattled with occasional lower CPI numbers, we’re not going to get rattled with higher numbers.”
So if Q1 earnings will be terrible why are billions pouring in nonstop?
For the last 15 years the fed HAS focussed on jobless claims since relatively speaking inflation was not an issue (they were more worried about true DEFLATION from 2008-2011).. but technically, the primary mandate (and this is true for most developed economies, like ECB, BOE and others is maintaining PRICE STABILTY. Even though OUR FED has a “dual mandate”.
Right now, the fight is inflation, and inflation only.. they are fine to have claims rise (which they haven’t) or wage change fall - which it sort of hasn’t, it’s still outpacing inflation but down from the boil of 2022-mid 2023 when wages changes were 8+%. That’s not good.
I’m not ADDING to short positioning, I’m already stocked up on my put structure for May/June, and $VIX vol futures. And i’m not YET taking off -cc on big tech or other high flying industrials and healthcare since they haven’t really come down enough. For some, like MSFT, AVGO, LLY, I think I’m going to have to work theta as much as ever.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
China numbers today - didnt make a dent
China factory reduction - didnt make a dent
PD missed by 50K - barely make a dent
FOMC - didnt make a dent
CPI Hot - would that make a dent????
Some sorts of euphoria is happening now. Just holding onto my single +175C into next week.
Be careful as the force seem a lot stronger with this pump.
@dl003 - please share if you see anything new. Thanks.
China factory reduction - didnt make a dent
PD missed by 50K - barely make a dent
FOMC - didnt make a dent
CPI Hot - would that make a dent????
Some sorts of euphoria is happening now. Just holding onto my single +175C into next week.
Be careful as the force seem a lot stronger with this pump.
@dl003 - please share if you see anything new. Thanks.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
TBF what it's not making a dent in is a stock price already down 30% YTD and much further down from ATHs
Thank you. I’m learning a lot from your posts and experience.
For those of us that are not yet decently positioned for May/June downside, what would you recommend re some modest say SPY/QQQ puts and VIX calls, or something else, etc, NFA of course.
I hate putting things out there, since my positioning was done a WHILE ago, but SPY 490 for June is less than 1%, one could make a nice spread +p490/-p475 for less than half that and be long ~ 8% down from here…for about a .05% outlay with a 15 point spread.
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It is a very confusing looking chart you can make a case for both <bottom in> and <puts cleaning before last drop>.
My read is take profit quickly. Next stop is 172. I intend to close some calls in this area.
I honestly don't know, I'm just going to keep rolling out a week and see what happens. My hope is that IV will increase when earnings get closer, right now it's super low for NVDA making rolling very tricky
Plan B is to just let them exercise and sell calls, or maybe 4x of them, then sell 4x straddles to maximise Theta
Will see...
Something like this?
SPY Jun 28th 490/475 Bear Put Spread (TiVo Example) | OptionStrat
View my options strategy on OptionStrat
optionstrat.com
Personally I wouldn't sell monthly puts from here, this current rally is against everything we know right now, so I would personally be very cautious about that
I only sold the 4/26 -p165's today because I'd already established a -c165 position, the old "one side will win" strategy, if the SP stays up it's free money, if the SP dumps then I need to roll down an liberate my +p150's to print
I don’t think it’s more pessimism, just less optimism. And other factors, more large whales saying they are going to engineer and fab their own special purpose chips/chipset and sw. A lot of NVDA pricing and bullishness for the past 1-1.5 years has been that they have a lock on supply for (from now) at LEAST 18-24 months. I don’t buy that anymore, demand and sales will grow, but I think others will have capable chips in 24 months for at least SOME of either the LLM tasks, or the more focussed inference.
Not to be a killjoy, but we need to keep in mind that the ugly EW red count cannot be ignored until TSLA takes out $183 and $206. IMO this count is waay too bearish showing <$80 but important to be aware of nonetheless.
(Credit: Levi @ StockWaves)
(Credit: Levi @ StockWaves)
Man hate the feeling of a trade seeming so obvious. So far the stock has defied logic but you gotta assume a sell off is coming either off of cpi print tomorrow or earnings.
I know I should be doing some shorter term trades to take advantage of a dip into the 140's or possibly lower. Even a dip back to the low 160's. But that feeling of it being such an obvious trade makes me queasy.
I know I should be doing some shorter term trades to take advantage of a dip into the 140's or possibly lower. Even a dip back to the low 160's. But that feeling of it being such an obvious trade makes me queasy.
I'm trying to decide what to do with my 170CCs for Friday. I'm planning on rolling to 4/26. Do I roll to 170 for lots of premium and hope the SP comes back down after ER, or roll up as much as possible?
I will wait until Friday and go from there. I would rather not lose these shares.... (I guess that means I roll up as high as possible and don't worry about lost premium).
Edit: It seems like Cybertruck deliveries/VIN assignments are on hold, probably from a bad part (several trucks have needed to be towed after only a few miles). The VIN tracker doesn't show any new VIN assignments for the last two weeks or so, and many waiting for delivery from older VIN assignments.
I will wait until Friday and go from there. I would rather not lose these shares.... (I guess that means I roll up as high as possible and don't worry about lost premium).
Edit: It seems like Cybertruck deliveries/VIN assignments are on hold, probably from a bad part (several trucks have needed to be towed after only a few miles). The VIN tracker doesn't show any new VIN assignments for the last two weeks or so, and many waiting for delivery from older VIN assignments.
So true. The strong inflows and relative strength is surely odd. There’s something going on under the hood that’s not clear yet. Tough to position for other than to be extra conservative on trades for both sides (i.e., sit on hands) which is not easy to do. Maybe that’s what “they” want, muddy the waters and then play with us.
Will we possibly get a reprieve until August?
I decided to stick with the -c165's I opened own Friday, just rolled to 4/26 to grad the high IV and straddled with puts the same expiry
As I mentioned above, I'm more worried about the puts in the event of a dump than the calls, but will deal with what comes - in the case of the puts, they're both cash-covered and forming a calendar diagonal with July +p150's, so lots of scope for rolling-down
For the upside, I figured if it stays up then I'll either roll out the -c165's to September -c210's, something like that, another possibility is to double them up for September -c240's -> these would be written against +c200 LEAPS and Jan +c300's - in the case that the SP pops up to the mid 200's, I would be happy to offload the +c200 LEAPS, for a LOT of cash, then manage the remaining short calls, would have a lot of cash to cover any margin needs in that case anyway
Preference, of course is a retracement back to 165 after earnings, max profits, then it can dump hard, like it should!!
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