The +P160/-P150 implies you don't expect TSLA to be over $165 after ER, is that about right, or is this just a lotto?
LINK: https://optionstrat.com/ROjcVEynbHaf
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
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The +P160/-P150 implies you don't expect TSLA to be over $165 after ER, is that about right, or is this just a lotto?
LINK: https://optionstrat.com/ROjcVEynbHaf
I expect nothing much more than not being higher than 200. Otherwise, the chart told me it was a good time to start hedging.
EW update:
"Under $167's anything immediately bullish becomes very unreliable. We only have 3-up off March low, and also only a small (A)(B)(C) up from the April stick-save."
Alternate:
(Credit: StockWaves)
"Under $167's anything immediately bullish becomes very unreliable. We only have 3-up off March low, and also only a small (A)(B)(C) up from the April stick-save."
Alternate:
(Credit: StockWaves)
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Maybe all the cars will go through some simple but custom auto wash cleaning tunnel when they come in for charging, which will be required. Or, maybe a Teslabot will walk around all the cars while charging, and clean off all cameras? OR, maybe they put washers in, like most cars have at least on the front and rear lenses… OR maybe just some oliophobic coating/material to keep 95% of detritus or moisture off.. LOTS of interesting Stories they can tell in August.
I’ve had it say “unavailable” due to weather condition, when it wasn’t even raining, but HAD been raining lightly a few minutes prior.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
It’s not. It’s a message that pops up whenever there is rain. Only in heavy rain will it fall back to AP.
In light rain we get in Seattle area, it has always worked for me (both 11 and 12).
I'm between surgical cases. First 12.3.4 drive today. The only intervention was on the highway (where my understanding is that it is still on V11) where it was too far to the left and going to miss the interchange because of traffic. Very impressed after the first drive. FSD is not priced into the SP sufficiently yet. My understanding is that geofenced Waymo and Cruise don't do Highway trips? Tesla is far ahead of everyone.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Tesla is far ahead of everyone else on a human-driver-aid L2 system.
Waymo operates a driverless L4 system, which is not a thing Tesla has, at all, today.
And L4 system is fundamentally different from "an L2 system that's rarely needs the human to fully take over"
Further discussion ought go here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
teslamotorsclub.com
EVNow
Well-Known Member
To me the question is how will Tesla monetize FSD. True robotaxi is far away - so how will FSD impact revenue, EPS in the next 3 years. Currently Tesla refuses to disclose important FSD metrics like
- take rate
- # of subscribers
- miles per disengagement
If Tesla wants FSD to be taken seriously they need to start disclosing important metrics so we can track progress. Elon has blown the “trust me” option by being wrong every one of last 5 or so years.
Tesla is far ahead of everyone else on a human-driver-aid L2 system.
Waymo operates a driverless L4 system, which is not a thing Tesla has, at all, today.
And L4 system is fundamentally different from "an L2 system that's rarely needs the human to fully take over"
Further discussion ought go here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
In theory you are correct but in practice you are not. I don't see why Tesla couldn't do the same thing that Waymo is doing today on the same geofenced area. They just don't want to go that route and Tesla's FSD which is a Level 2 by definition from the SAE can certainly be Level 4 if they wanted to.
It seems that FSD V12 is a game changer; the trial was a great idea because I keep seeing many people on Facebook groups saying that their minds are blown and that they would be willing to pay around $5000 for it. I also have seen comments from people that used older version of FSD saying that "FSD has come from nerve racking to actually being usable for everyday driving". Another interesting comment was "I would buy it right now for $12k if it was transferable because having a personal chauffeur cost way more money" and prices for FSD could go up as it gets perfected.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
FSD sub price should be $49.99 or lower. They can easily gain 500m per year basing on 1 mill take rate.
RT aint happening but FSD is making great progress.
RT aint happening but FSD is making great progress.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Anecdotes are not that useful when trying to figure out impact on EPS. Tesla needs to publish hard data.
I probably sound like a worn-down beaten drum at this point but for Q2 Tesla should say "Last chance to outright buy FSD. Starting in Q3, FSD only available through monthly subscription. We'll be offering a $99/month 12 month contract deal for the first year for remainder of 2024".
It would get anyone that's on the fence/debating an outright buy of FSD to pull the trigger. Anyone thinking about buying a Tesla to outright buy FSD would have to move on it in Q2 and then it finally settles that whole thing about "No one's going to pay $12,000 for FSD" because there simply won't be an option for it. For those wanting the monthly subscription at the lower price or those thinking about buying a Tesla and plan on using FSD monthly, it forces them to act on buying a Tesla before the end of 2024.
By 2025, I think FSD's state of progress will be enough to warrant either 149/month or 199/month in value to customers.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
But in both theory and practice I'm correct.
The system is incapable of operating without a human safely.
It lacks multiple, fundamental, capabilities needed to do that.
A complete OEDR and a non-human fallback system to name just two.
That doesn't mean Tesla can't ever create and add those missing capabilities- but they are not there today
No, it can't.
Again take this to the FSD forums- but people who make claims like yours simply do not understand the SAE levels and need to do that first before trying to discuss it.
Practically everyone and their mom that owns a Tesla would gladly pay $99/month for FSD. There's no need to drop it to $49/month just to get users.
Ultimately, I think some tier system is best.. $50 limited use, maybe 250-300 miles a month max, $99, for up to 750 a month, $199 unlimited. Increasing penetration would go a long way to increasing perception of interest, demand vs. just continuing to try and get $12K, or $199 a month from users.
It’s also better for Tesla (assuming it isn’t mis-used or leading to more accidents or insurance claims) to have a larger collection of FSDb miles accumulation.
FBI (fee based income) is where they want to go, and being able to say something like “25%, or 40% of all Tesla in NA have an active FSD sub for at least 90 days a year” or some variation on that would be a significant boost to at least the perception of the value driver that it could bring the stock.
Update: I was typing while apparently the hive mind was all coming to the same conclusions.. ;-)
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Agree, I think the miles driven tiered system is the best approach.
It's a approach that really works for everyone and naturally handles individuality complaints - "I drive only 200 miles a month, I don't want to pay $200"
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
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