Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

$99 for FSD monthly is exactly what it’s worth
$299 would be worth it if you can send your car in a fleet if robotaxis and make money from it
$15,000 would be worth it if the license was lifetime and transferred to all the new Tesla cars you guys for the rest of your life
$199 would be worth it for someone doing a lot of driving monthly
$99 is a no brainer if you go for couple long drives during the week end and go for a road trip.

Some revenues will start to be recognized by WS, guidance might help ER. Starting to feel non bearish for the first time over 6-9 months.

Technically, for what it’s called FSD it’s worth more than $99, but right NOW I think that’s all it’s worth
IF RT is real and could be utilitized, it’s worth a. LOT more than $299 a month, probably 2x that at least
TOTALLY, the 15K fee IF lifetime, that would be totally worth it.. I would argue in about six moths IF they can show/prove anything more truly useful, that could be worth 20-30K at least, so 15K for a lifetime, USER based FSD license would totally be worth it. there is a part of me that HOPES that Tesla says to the 10-15% of ppl who FUNDED build out of factories and making it through “production hell” and all the other fashiizzle. Would just be given the ability to carry their FSD to any NEW purchases going forward.. obviously only one vehicle at a time, but honestly why can’t it be carried with ME, the DRIVER in WHATEVER TESLA IM IN?

 

[juanmedina]

I am not buying any TSLA right now… today I deployed $$ in PFE, UNH, BAC, JPM, ADBE, GOOGL and RIVN (oh the horror)

RIVN.

 

[bmd00]

weekly bearish engulfing
View attachment 1038076
Daily bearish divergence
View attachment 1038080
Intraday change of characteristics last week where it couldn't hold a gap up and at the end of the day didn't squeeze much higher than the first hour.
View attachment 1038081

Yesterday was simply a VIX crush-fueled bounce. Underneath the hedges were real changes in momentum.

And there's this monthly bearish divergence looming. It appears the music is just slowing...but what might the music do a week, a month, a year from now, Mr. Sulivan?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, and JUST enough not to piss off TOO many ppl who paid 15K for something, that hasn’t materialized yet, with a car out of warranty but with a 10 year battery warranty.

$99 a month, ~ $1200 a year, unless one can come and go as the please.. Whereas the poor schlub who paid $15K at some point in the past ~ 5 years. with a car with a 10 year battery and drive train warranty of some sort paid ~ $1500 a year. so, it’s not as annoying as some legacy owners might think.

FSD transfers to a new vehicle will go a long way toward smoothing the ruffled feathers of those who bought in at the $15K mark. And anyways, that is a small club.

 

[tivoboy]

FSD transfers to a new vehicle will go a long way toward smoothing the ruffled feathers of those who bought in at the $15K mark. And anyways, that is a small club.

Indeed, and I’ve said since Sept 2023 “it will be back” and in the end, it’s never really gone away - so yeah, they are sort of just doing it.

But yes, it’s probably not more than 15% of NA owners, and probably LESS than 10% of EMEA owners, if not in the mid to high SINGLE digits of EMEA

I’d love to know how many OWNERS are in the pre 3/2019 category who have PAID FSD OWNERSHIP (and thus L3 at minimum for capability) and who have NOT transferred to a new vehicle, and thereby sacrificed their claim to L3 minimum capability and for whom Tesla has an obligation to deliver what what contractually promised..

Yes, @Knightshade I’m shinning the BAT SIGNAL!

 

[Yoona]

Way the hell OTM

it seems to me that Double Diagonal is the best play for TSLA going into earnings

Assuming 6 delta:

4/15 STO 4/19 -p155/-c205 4dte (short strangle; sell the 1st set of shorts)
4/15 BTO 4/25 +p125/+c235 11dte (buy the longs one week further out)
4/19 BTC 4/19 -p155/-c205 (0dte, close the 1st set of shorts)
4/19 STO 4/25 -p155/-c205 4dte (sell the 2nd set of shorts) - this is just regular rolling of the old shorts
4/23 STC 4/25 +p125/+c235 (close the longs at the highest IV prior to Earnings call; short strangle is the result)
4/25 BTC 4/25 -p155/-c205 (0dte, close the 2nd set of shorts; IV collapsed at this point)

Double Diagonal gives TRIPLE avenues of income that takes advantage of mid-week IV collapse

3 credits in 2 weeks

not advice!

 

[tivoboy]

it seems to me that Double Diagonal is the best play for TSLA going into earnings

Assuming 6 delta:

4/15 STO 4/19 -p155/-c205 4dte (short strangle; sell the 1st set of shorts)
4/15 BTO 4/25 +p125/+c235 11dte (buy the longs one week further out)
4/19 BTC 4/19 -p155/-c205 (0dte, close the 1st set of shorts)
4/19 STO 4/25 -p155/-c205 4dte (sell the 2nd set of shorts)
4/23 STC 4/25 +p125/+c235 (close the longs at the highest IV prior to Earnings call)
4/25 BTC 4/25 -p155/-c205 (0dte, close the 2nd set of shorts; IV collapsed at this point)

Double Diagonal gives TRIPLE avenues of income that takes advantage of mid-week IV collapse

3 credits in 2 weeks

not advice!

This one at least, WHY would you do that one? What does it get you? Other than a wild card hedge against the STO for the same expiry?

 

[Yoona]

This one at least, WHY would you do that one? What does it get you? Other than a wild card hedge against the STO for the same expiry?

because Double Diagonal is a long vega trade that takes advantage of IV collapse while giving 3 incomes at half the buying power

a regular sell DOTM that is closed at IV collapse is just 1 income

to make it work, small delta is the secret key to counteract the IV spike

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776638882706248084

https://optionstradingiq.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-double-diagonal-spreads/

 

[tivoboy]

because Double Diagonal is a long vega trade that takes advantage of IV collapse while giving 3 incomes at half the buying power

a regular sell DOTM that is closed at IV collapse is just 1 income

to make it work, small delta is the secret key to counteract the IV spike

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776638882706248084

https://optionstradingiq.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-double-diagonal-spreads/

Well now at least I have my Sunday morning homework. TIA

 

[thenewguy1979]

because Double Diagonal is a long vega trade that takes advantage of IV collapse while giving 3 incomes at half the buying power

a regular sell DOTM that is closed at IV collapse is just 1 income

to make it work, small delta is the secret key to counteract the IV spike

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776638882706248084

https://optionstradingiq.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-double-diagonal-spreads/

Wow, I'm slow. Have to spend the whole weekend to digest this....

Another benefit of selling vs vanilla buying. Strategy.....

 

[Knightshade]

Indeed, and I’ve said since Sept 2023 “it will be back” and in the end, it’s never really gone away - so yeah, they are sort of just doing it.

But yes, it’s probably not more than 15% of NA owners, and probably LESS than 10% of EMEA owners, if not in the mid to high SINGLE digits of EMEA

I’d love to know how many OWNERS are in the pre 3/2019 category who have PAID FSD OWNERSHIP (and thus L3 at minimum for capability) and who have NOT transferred to a new vehicle, and thereby sacrificed their claim to L3 minimum capability and for whom Tesla has an obligation to deliver what what contractually promised..

Yes, @Knightshade I’m shinning the BAT SIGNAL!

the last time I'm aware Troy published was end of Q3 2022, so 6 quarters ago:

Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) Take Rate, Includes Q3 2022, Created by Troy Teslike on 29 Oct 2022

Charts

docs.google.com

EMEA was 8.8% Q3, US was 14.3%-- AP was damn near 0 (0.4%) which led to worldwide of 7.4%
Sadly the price didn't go up to 15k till Sept 2022 so there's almost 0 data on take rate since that happened.


We CAN get the take rate through Q1 2019 from this though! 15.3% worldwide from launch of FSD through end of Q1 2019.

We also know how many cars Tesla deliveries in that period (rounding slightly)
2016-Q4- 22k
2017 103k
2018 245k
2019-Q1- 63k

So 433k cars, at 15.3% take rate, is....66,429 cars with the "at least L4 promised to them" FSD.

Now... where we have issues is we don't know:

# of those no longer on the road (probably not a MASSIVE number)
or
# of those who traded in the car and the 'good' FSD was removed from it (probably a significant number by now- between FSD transfers and Teslas habit of removing it on trade in regardless)

No idea what those #s are, but I'd be shocked if the # of remaining owners of the "good" FSD isn't well under 50k

 

[Max Plaid]

Technically, for what it’s called FSD it’s worth more than $99, but right NOW I think that’s all it’s worth
IF RT is real and could be utilitized, it’s worth a. LOT more than $299 a month, probably 2x that at least
TOTALLY, the 15K fee IF lifetime, that would be totally worth it.. I would argue in about six moths IF they can show/prove anything more truly useful, that could be worth 20-30K at least, so 15K for a lifetime, USER based FSD license would totally be worth it. there is a part of me that HOPES that Tesla says to the 10-15% of ppl who FUNDED build out of factories and making it through “production hell” and all the other fashiizzle. Would just be given the ability to carry their FSD to any NEW purchases going forward.. obviously only one vehicle at a time, but honestly why can’t it be carried with ME, the DRIVER in WHATEVER TESLA IM IN?

As it's weekend...

I paid for FSD on my previous MX, obviously here in Europe it never materialised, I lost it when I sold the car. I paid for EAP on both of our current cars fro the auto park and other features that do/did/might still work, but not yet FSD

IMO an FSD licence should be personal and linked to the Tesla account. Obviously it should be a single-use licence, so only able to be used on one car at a time. So if I had and FSD licence it would work for me on my current MX or my wife's MY, but not both at the same time. This could be easily determined by the Tesla app and phone key, or a more basic implementation could be to have the licence assigned to a car on you account either on the app of Tesla.com account page

If they did this the take-rate would improve. I would upgrade to the lifetime FSD immediately, I'm less interested in a subscription asmost days I don't drive, I work from home, so no commute, it's reallyonly interesting for long road trips

Indeed, and I’ve said since Sept 2023 “it will be back” and in the end, it’s never really gone away - so yeah, they are sort of just doing it.

But yes, it’s probably not more than 15% of NA owners, and probably LESS than 10% of EMEA owners, if not in the mid to high SINGLE digits of EMEA

I’d love to know how many OWNERS are in the pre 3/2019 category who have PAID FSD OWNERSHIP (and thus L3 at minimum for capability) and who have NOT transferred to a new vehicle, and thereby sacrificed their claim to L3 minimum capability and for whom Tesla has an obligation to deliver what what contractually promised..

Yes, @Knightshade I’m shinning the BAT SIGNAL!

That'll be me... and I lost my lifetime supercharging too, which other then had the opportunity to keep, not happy with that either, even though it's not worth that much, more psychological than anything for most folks

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778876170827649469

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778936141800251578

 

[CHGolferJim]

Careful guys. Seem Elon and Co. are doing what they can to negates the negatives going into ER. The $99 FSD and the trip to India can bring some big news.

As dl003 mentioned worse can happen is it went flat at ER blowing the Bear and Bull out of the Water. Or goto one far extreme and blast through even a 7 delta IC.

Got to give Elon credits for the flurry of actions.

GF India would indicate all systems go on “Model 2”.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Technically, for what it’s called FSD it’s worth more than $99, but right NOW I think that’s all it’s worth
IF RT is real and could be utilitized, it’s worth a. LOT more than $299 a month, probably 2x that at least
TOTALLY, the 15K fee IF lifetime, that would be totally worth it.. I would argue in about six moths IF they can show/prove anything more truly useful, that could be worth 20-30K at least, so 15K for a lifetime, USER based FSD license would totally be worth it. there is a part of me that HOPES that Tesla says to the 10-15% of ppl who FUNDED build out of factories and making it through “production hell” and all the other fashiizzle. Would just be given the ability to carry their FSD to any NEW purchases going forward.. obviously only one vehicle at a time, but honestly why can’t it be carried with ME, the DRIVER in WHATEVER TESLA IM IN?

Considering I paid for FSD on both my 2018 & 2022 model X’s mostly to support Tesla, at the very least my NEXT FSD purchase needs to be lifetime …or something like that.

 

[EVNow]

$299 would be worth it if you can send your car in a fleet if robotaxis and make money from it

If robotaxi is possible - it would be worth a lot more. If an avg robotaxi can drive for 6 hours a day - at minimum wage rates, that would be $100 a day or $3,000 a month.

 

[EVNow]

high enough that it is material.

How material? What's your calculation ?

The basic issue is without some hard data from Tesla about #of subscriptions, any estimate will likely be wildly off.

 

[tivoboy]

the last time I'm aware Troy published was end of Q3 2022, so 6 quarters ago:

Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) Take Rate, Includes Q3 2022, Created by Troy Teslike on 29 Oct 2022

Charts

docs.google.com

EMEA was 8.8% Q3, US was 14.3%-- AP was damn near 0 (0.4%) which led to worldwide of 7.4%
Sadly the price didn't go up to 15k till Sept 2022 so there's almost 0 data on take rate since that happened.


We CAN get the take rate through Q1 2019 from this though! 15.3% worldwide from launch of FSD through end of Q1 2019.

We also know how many cars Tesla deliveries in that period (rounding slightly)
2016-Q4- 22k
2017 103k
2018 245k
2019-Q1- 63k

So 433k cars, at 15.3% take rate, is....66,429 cars with the "at least L4 promised to them" FSD.

Now... where we have issues is we don't know:

# of those no longer on the road (probably not a MASSIVE number)
or
# of those who traded in the car and the 'good' FSD was removed from it (probably a significant number by now- between FSD transfers and Teslas habit of removing it on trade in regardless)

No idea what those #s are, but I'd be shocked if the # of remaining owners of the "good" FSD isn't well under 50k

Informative as usual.. thanks for the work.

I wonder if there is ANY way to estimate what the transfer to new vehicle rate is.. 50% sounds high, 10% sounds low, something like 20-25% seems most reasonable - but as you say we really have no way of knowing..

But at least we know the universe of most likely at least L4 promised to them is >~45K owners (maybe less with 2 cars per family unit)

That many cars, X some compounded valuation of monies paid, could be ~ 1$B. Seems like a pretty large amount, and one where I’d think the better path would be allow ALL those ppl to transfer FSD to a new vehicle for LIFE.

 

[adiggs]

I’d love to know how many OWNERS are in the pre 3/2019 category who have PAID FSD OWNERSHIP (and thus L3 at minimum for capability) and who have NOT transferred to a new vehicle, and thereby sacrificed their claim to L3 minimum capability and for whom Tesla has an obligation to deliver what what contractually promised..

+1

2017 Model X. Still driving that Model X with a bit over 100k miles now. But I'm an anecdote

 

[Surfer of Life]

Indeed, and I’ve said since Sept 2023 “it will be back” and in the end, it’s never really gone away - so yeah, they are sort of just doing it.

But yes, it’s probably not more than 15% of NA owners, and probably LESS than 10% of EMEA owners, if not in the mid to high SINGLE digits of EMEA

I’d love to know how many OWNERS are in the pre 3/2019 category who have PAID FSD OWNERSHIP (and thus L3 at minimum for capability) and who have NOT transferred to a new vehicle, and thereby sacrificed their claim to L3 minimum capability and for whom Tesla has an obligation to deliver what what contractually promised..

Yes, @Knightshade I’m shinning the BAT SIGNAL!

I’m another anecdote of one. 2018 X75D, downloaded update with V12.3.4 last week and it’s much improved, even if the old nav system did just circle me around and around Wendy’s instead of leaving to drive me home on FSB Beta.

Hoping Tesla improves Summon, Come to Me, and maybe Auto Park (including parking in my garage) soon.