Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Patrick66]

Not sure where to put my money to work, but I am thinking selling NVDA weekly PUTS .. a bit aggressive and won't mind if assigned (need some diversification)

FWIW that was my exact position earlier this year; it has gotten harder in the past 2-3 weeks as a strategy. I essentially laddered about 7 weeks out, selling >10DTE ATM puts and then slowly picking my strike prices more carefully. While I made some reasonable change doing it, I did get assigned more and faster than I had planned for, which essentially means I should be sitting out the next month.

I am focused more on diversification now than just dumping TSLA; I have high concentrations in TSLA and AAPL.

 

[thenewguy1979]

FWIW that was my exact position earlier this year; it has gotten harder in the past 2-3 weeks as a strategy. I essentially laddered about 7 weeks out, selling >10DTE ATM puts and then slowly picking my strike prices more carefully. While I made some reasonable change doing it, I did get assigned more and faster than I had planned for, which essentially means I should be sitting out the next month.

I am focused more on diversification now than just dumping TSLA; I have high concentrations in TSLA and AAPL.

NVDA has a 12 weeks run of weekly high. Was working for selling at the previous week close. That strategy got blown out the water 3 weeks ago.

Only playing with AAPL and TSLA lately.

For TLSA may start loading put spread for ER. High IV cost somewhat get negated by the short leg of the spread.

Planning below but waiting for a bounce or closer to end of the week.

 

[thenewguy1979]

What just happen minutes ago seem like a repeat of yesterday. Market got spooked again?

 

[Cherry Wine]

What just happen minutes ago seem like a repeat of yesterday. Market got spooked again?

View attachment 1039012

Middle east conflict stuff I think. Israel is saber rattling.

EDIT: Nevermind.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780287557198127235

 

[SpeedyEddy]

What just happen minutes ago seem like a repeat of yesterday. Market got spooked again?

View attachment 1039012

J.Powell talking... bit dovish...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What just happen minutes ago seem like a repeat of yesterday. Market got spooked again?

View attachment 1039012

Market is reacting rapidly to any bits of news or fear.

Just further signs of the market being ready to roll over, which shouldn't surprise anyone given that fact that June rate cuts seem likely to be off the table now. Anywhere from a 5-10% drop in the macro's will suffice.

The longer the market stays near highs, the bigger the correction is going to be before it can make to newer highs later this year. I think a further 5-8% drop would be quite healthy for a further bull run when rates do start to drop later this year.

 

[elasalle]

Post earnings - what would be a price folks consider buying back?

 

[tivoboy]

Post earnings - what would be a price folks consider buying back?

135-138

 

[thenewguy1979]

135-138

Guess that mean selling uncovered Put at 135 after ER? Preferably ITM so Premium is high. Double win.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

135-138

Call me crazy, but I think the low will be set before earnings

By doing the layoffs the week before earnings, feels like Tesla is trying to get all the bad news out of the way before the earnings call so that they can talk positives, maybe throw in a surprise in there (we pretty much already know the Model 3 performance will be announced on the earnings call). Maybe they'll have good FSD subscriber rate data by earnings. Maybe they have a V12 release planned for this weekend to come out before Tuesday's earnings.

Of course...they could be planning all that but then likely Elon will go on a 30 min rant about how bad things are looking, gotta tighten the belt, war time, blah, blah and completely derail the earnings call.

Of course, even if the earnings call is actually a positive catalyst, it has to be strong enough to counter a macro correction...so who knows

 

[tivoboy]

Call me crazy, but I think the low will be set before earnings

By doing the layoffs the week before earnings, feels like Tesla is trying to get all the bad news out of the way before the earnings call so that they can talk positives, maybe throw in a surprise in there (we pretty much already know the Model 3 performance will be announced on the earnings call). Maybe they'll have good FSD subscriber rate data by earnings. Maybe they have a V12 release planned for this weekend to come out before Tuesday's earnings.

Of course...they could be planning all that but then likely Elon will go on a 30 min rant about how bad things are looking, gotta tighten the belt, war time, blah, blah and completely derail the earnings call.

Of course, even if the earnings call is actually a positive catalyst, it has to be strong enough to counter a macro correction...so who knows

Certainly possible that’s what makes a market.

I have the feeling that earnings will be bad for Q1 (we pretty much know this) and earnings are looking even WORSE for Q2 (which we are IN), sales projections are probably down for Q2, so reduce overhead - human capital now, early in the quarter and overall cash flow might not look AS bad as Q2 was projecting. I know we’re a long way to Q2 earnings, but cutting just into the quarter makes me think they want it here, and not BACK in Q1. Also, with sales having been essentially held up late Q1, I think that was a channel push into Q2, to start with hopefully some early sales closures, and of course knowing headcount was going to be cut, being able to have some inventory till getting to 1-2 shift operations, vs. 2-2.5 shift operations.

At some point when E goes negative, and they start dipping into cash on balance sheet.. larger institutional owners WILL start hedging risk. I’m hoping to sell some of them a bunch of PUTS down about another 7%, in the mid 140’s where I’ll begin to start to take position.

So essentially, I do not think it’s all baked in, but again, that’s what makes a market.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Call me crazy, but I think the low will be set before earnings

By doing the layoffs the week before earnings, feels like Tesla is trying to get all the bad news out of the way before the earnings call so that they can talk positives, maybe throw in a surprise in there (we pretty much already know the Model 3 performance will be announced on the earnings call). Maybe they'll have good FSD subscriber rate data by earnings. Maybe they have a V12 release planned for this weekend to come out before Tuesday's earnings.

Of course...they could be planning all that but then likely Elon will go on a 30 min rant about how bad things are looking, gotta tighten the belt, war time, blah, blah and completely derail the earnings call.

Of course, even if the earnings call is actually a positive catalyst, it has to be strong enough to counter a macro correction...so who knows

That not too crazy I think. All the bad mojo seem to be aired out this week for TSLA. No one will come in and expect a decent ER.

The big question is how bad can it be?
If it Earth Shattering bad and Elon didn't take his medication well the bottom isn't close.

I think we get some sort of rebound for the next couple of days prior to ER. Use that time to recalibrate.
Offload all my remaining Long Puts for the week. I'm freed.

@dl003 please share if you see anything new from today PA. Thanks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Certainly possible that’s what makes a market.

I have the feeling that earnings will be bad for Q1 (we pretty much know this) and earnings are looking even WORSE for Q2 (which we are IN), sales projections are probably down for Q2, so reduce overhead - human capital now, early in the quarter and overall cash flow might not look AS bad as Q2 was projection. I know we’re a long way to Q2 earnings, but cutting just into the quarter makes me think they want it here, and now BACK in Q1. Also, with sales having been essentially held up late Q1, I think that was a channel push into Q2, to start with hopefully some early sales closures, and of course knowing headcount was going to be cut, being able to have some inventory till getting to 1-2 shift operations, vs. 2-2.5 shift operations.

At some point when E goes negative, and they start dipping into cash on balance sheet.. larger institutional owners WILL start hedging risk. I’m hoping to sell some of them a bunch of PUTS down about another 7%, in the mid 140’s where I’ll begin to start to take position.

So essentially, I do not think it’s all baked in, but again, that’s what makes a market.

Just now actually, Tesla removed discounts for all inventory. I think Tesla is finally wising up to the fact that cheaper prices isn't going to do anything and thus are pivoting to margin preservation by drastically reducing operating costs to account for lower production for the rest of this year. That's something I think Wall St would actually respond favorably to.

There's also one very big card that Tesla has in its hand which is turning on FSD for China. I can't seem to find any legal reason that they can't. A few other Chinese auto makers are already running autonomy over there using Tesla's approach and from what I've seen online, their vision/autonomy systems are far from perfect and not on par with V12. So hopefully it's not a situation where China is blocking the release of it.

 

[MP3Mike]

There's also one very big card that Tesla has in its hand which is turning on FSD for China. I can't seem to find any legal reason that they can't. A few other Chinese auto makers are already running autonomy over there using Tesla's approach and from what I've seen online, their vision/autonomy systems are far from perfect and not on part with V12. So hopefully it's not a situation where China is blocking the release of it.

I think part of the problem is that China doesn't allow the data to leave the country, so they can't collect driving clips in China and use them for training in their US data centers. They have to, or maybe already have, built a training center in China to be able to localize it. (Which of course runs into problems where the best GPUs can't be imported into China.)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think part of the problem is that China doesn't allow the data to leave the country, so they can't collect driving clips in China and use them for training in their US data centers. They have to, or maybe already have, built a training center in China to be able to localize it. (Which of course runs into problems where the best GPUs can't be imported into China.)

That's the scenario that I'm hoping is the case. It's been known for a while now (and Tesla has acknowledged the fact) that all autonomy data will need to be kept/stored in China. I want to say it's been known for a over a year. So I would certainly hope that by Elon and Tesla's recent comments over the past couple of months that computer power needed is being resolved (and one on tweet Elon said is resolved), it means that China FSD is coming sometime this year.

 

[Jim Holder]

Option trades >$2MM, all @2:47PM:

 

[dl003]

That not too crazy I think. All the bad mojo seem to be aired out this week for TSLA. No one will come in and expect a decent ER.

The big question is how bad can it be?
If it Earth Shattering bad and Elon didn't take his medication well the bottom isn't close.

I think we get some sort of rebound for the next couple of days prior to ER. Use that time to recalibrate.
Offload all my remaining Long Puts for the week. I'm freed.

@dl003 please share if you see anything new from today PA. Thanks.

Nothing much other than the 3rd leg down of the falling wedge finally got going.

In this diagonal pattern, it's crucial wave 3 is not the shortest. Since wave 1 is obviously the longest, wave 5 here has to be shorter than wave 3, which means this cant go lower than 139. If it's lower than 139, it's going to crash much further as it'll be something else more bearish than a diagonal.
This week, I think, is just people finally hedging for ER, prompted in part by the layoff related news. Resting on the 0.5 fib line with weekly RSI and MACD flatlining. This is saying that we're bottoming out, UNLESS we crash.

 

[elasalle]

got a quick 1K on the 4 NVDA puts so sold 4 850 Puts for next week -- $14+ premium each

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780311790737596736