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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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This pivot is extremely abrupt. We are now asked to take a risk previously not on the agenda. It is what it is. The risk of bailing is we wake up one day, RT is a huge success but our stakes are all gone. The risk of not bailing is our financial plan getting set back years. Im much more willing to take one compared to the other.
Which one ? ;)

Its not just that - more specifically - FSD adoption by other OEMs (or some such unimagined news) can propel SP. We know how FSD is progressing - that is easy to figure out, since a million of us have FSD in our cars. But some FSD adjacent news that can propel SP can't be imagined.

So, I'm going to stick to about 1/2 in stock and the other half in cash ready to buy (CSPs).
 
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What the actual F is going on? Do people not read master plan part 3? It's about moving tonnage. If fsd is not ready, there's no way in freezing hell will Elon compromise the master plan of moving products due to hubris or whatever the F narrative people are coming up with.

Why are people this dumb? Elon is probably rolling into madness by the share stupidity of analysts right now.
David Baron is not an analyst. He runs a fund with his father that is 30% TSLA and 10% SpaceX plus they got roped into Titter. Ron always goes on CNBC cheerleading the stock when it's down. The fact he isn't now, and his son is out basically telling Elon to get his head out of his ass isn't a good sign.
 
He is not pivoting, he just see FSD being solved more likely within the time frame. This can change if the next few updates lead them into a local maximum or he becomes bearish again. The assembly line isn't built yet, everything is fluid.

His FSD 'solved' vision have been annual jokes for too long. At best the RT priority is an attempt to distract and buy some time. Few are taking the bait.
 
David Baron is not an analyst. He runs a fund with his father that is 30% TSLA and 10% SpaceX plus they got roped into Titter. Ron always goes on CNBC cheerleading the stock when it's down. The fact he isn't now, and his son is out basically telling Elon to get his head out of his ass isn't a good sign.
Last we heard from Ron was on CNBC last November. Ron was saying the $25k car was maybe 12-18 mths away.
 
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Buckle up boys…

Futures Tumble, TSLA @ $145, Oil And Gold Soar On Reports Of "Huge Explosions" In Central Iran, Israeli Airstrikes In Iraq And Syria Reportedly.

SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ACCORDING TO INITIAL REPORTS

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1713490966853.png
 
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Buckle up boys…

Futures Tumble, TSLA @ $145, Oil And Gold Soar On Reports Of "Huge Explosions" In Central Iran, Israeli Airstrikes In Iraq And Syria Reportedly.

SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ACCORDING TO INITIAL REPORTS

View attachment 1039809

View attachment 1039810

Wow! I noticed the drop and was about to close my short russell futures positions. Instead I better sell more.
 
Dude - you are assuming your speculation is "obviously correct".

There are a ton of other possibilities.

After Reuters report came out (I bet there is a lot of truth in that) - Elon said it was a lie - but made many moves that corroborates what they said.

It has been "blindingly obvious" from a long time, Elon has no idea if and when FSD will ever happen. Proof : He said by the end of the year FSD will happen every one of last 5 or so years. Given this - either you have to do all the thousand things you need to do to build Model 2 now .... or you don't. So, the question is - is Tesla "waiting" before making significant investments in Model 2 or not. If they are "waiting" how long will they wait ?

ps : I think what actually influenced the "pivot" are a couple of things
- Down market for EVs
- Performance of AI stocks compared to TSLA
- V12

On a side note, it is interesting to remember that V11 "single stack" was hyped as much as V12.
Remember that time Tesla waited for hw3 to come out before producing the model 3 because it needs a retrofit later? Me neither....

Tesla has zero precedents that they will wait for anything. In fact they always run before they can walk on most projects and get a lot of bad press due to this.
 
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Remember that time Tesla waited for hw3 to come out before producing the model 3 because it needs a retrofit later? Me neither....

Tesla has zero precedents that they will wait for anything. In fact they always run before they can walk on most projects and get a lot of bad press due to this.
What exactly are you trying to say ?

Are you saying
- Reports of Model 2 being put on hold are completely false ?
- There is no "pivot" ?
 
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What exactly are you trying to say ?

Are you saying
- Reports of Model 2 being put on hold are completely false ?
- There is no "pivot" ?
Tesla will move tonnage under any circumstances. Higher margins with robotaxies, lower margins with Model 2. Whatever will be sold when the assembly line is ready to pump out next phase of growth. Higher margin route preferred but if it's unavailable, lower margin cars will have to do. Everything else is just noise. Tesla have not pivoted away from their mission statement and their master plans..period.
 
I’m still miffed I missed the “slow frog boil” walk down from $180’s to $148. Keeps happening; traders “luck.” Whether we are missing another exit opportunity here before seeing $100 or $80 we’ll only know in hindsight I guess (again).
That is why we sometimes need to trim emotional positions... especially deep losses.

Don't get me wrong; I have several stocks that I am down 90% or more that I don't bother selling, but I don't expect them to recover either.
 
Technically, it sort of does.. beat top and bottom, 2x BEAT on subs, shows consumer is still strong, and their plan is working..IF the rest of tech can show similar earnings we’ll be back over 5200 in no time. Sadly, we know that’s NOT what Tesla is going to say next week, but nobody at this point thinks Tesla is going to be doing any of the lifting.
Just one persons opinion, and we all know what that is worth…but, as @tivoboy stated a couple of weeks ago, or maybe longer, he had positions that the S&P might be going down (I hope I am correct here) and, I think we all have been seeing these big swings in the stock market these past few weeks. Now, Netflix had a good earnings call and they are down, I think the macro’s are changing and we have/been in a correction. And now, if what happened in Iran is true, yikes, the market will not be kind. The question is, is it a correction, or are we heading into a recession and the next 6 months to a year + will be lost. Sure, TSLA has been down longer while the market has been up, but if this is a macro correction, everything will be down. I have never done this before, but I trimmed almost all of my stocks and bought puts on the S&P for the next few months. I hope we do not have this correction, which I think will be bigger than 5-10%, but the signs are there.
 
Tesla will move tonnage under any circumstances. Higher margins with robotaxies, lower margins with Model 2. Whatever will be sold when the assembly line is ready to pump out next phase of growth. Higher margin route preferred but if it's unavailable, lower margin cars will have to do. Everything else is just noise. Tesla have not pivoted away from their mission statement and their master plans..period.
Other than direct knowledge from inside HQ, what gives you such certainty?
 
Just one persons opinion, and we all know what that is worth…but, as @tivoboy stated a couple of weeks ago, or maybe longer, he had positions that the S&P might be going down (I hope I am correct here) I have never done this before, but I trimmed almost all of my stocks and bought puts on the S&P for the next few months. I hope we do not have this correction, which I think will be bigger than 5-10%, but the signs are there.
yes I’m still short spy +p490 qqq +p410 and long vix 16 for may 17 contracts. But these are positions from mid March so had been quite cheap at the time I’ll probably take some off tomorrow depending on how things actually open. Probably be taking off a lot of the -cc for May/June expirations since they should be well over 80% tomorrow. That’s mostly tech. Industrials and some health care.