Netflix reported a decent beat on revenue, EPS and subscribers, but the stock is 3% down, doesn't bode well for general market sentiment IMO
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I’m starting to come around to this view. I don’t think he even has to be great - all he has to do is not make things any worse than they already are and at least that uncertainty will be off the table. This is still the same company and CEO that got us this far.
I bought one 12/26 100c today and I’ll be looking to load up more in the 140s or (hopefully not) lower. I have -c165 and 170 for next week that I would also like to close before the ER. And some 150p for tomorrow for crash protection.
that's what Franz suggested a year ago.Maybe TSLA will present 2 version of the Model 2 - one with steering wheel and 1 without for RT. Same Car, same software, different Market.
Don't see why both cannot co-exist.
if's that true I can kiss my long puts bye bye
that's what all market was expecting, esp since in Q4/Q1 .. Tesla started saying - "2024 we are in between two growth waves" - and this made even 1.8M, 1.9M for 2024 more expectable.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
All they got to do is give Biden one and Trump one. Division solved World Peace. Amen
Technically, it sort of does.. beat top and bottom, 2x BEAT on subs, shows consumer is still strong, and their plan is working..IF the rest of tech can show similar earnings we’ll be back over 5200 in no time. Sadly, we know that’s NOT what Tesla is going to say next week, but nobody at this point thinks Tesla is going to be doing any of the lifting.
I have not seen THAT Elon in a while, and frankly I think he’s left the building. We’ll see. Mkt would sniff out hyperbowl though.
I think it is telling as an example of how we are still far away from solved, in that conversely to adiggs, I find the Auto Max Speed setting to be particularly terrible. It tends to go too slow at times, and then way too fast (like 10+ mph over the limit) at other times, often on the same road. If there are other cars around it's a bit better, but it's seemingly unpredictable and random. A lot of other people in the FSD thread have similar experiences. One person's experiences cannot be enough to fully gauge progress.
I agree otherwise with just about everything adiggs said. But I think it's easy to forget we are not even at the first 9 of the march of nines as well.
I'm very excited about the progress though. I find FSD comfortable enough to use on basically every drive now, but it still requires interventions occasionally and does dumb stuff that doesn't require interventions frequently. What I'm looking for now is rate of improvement between releases. To me that will be the most telling. If things are really on a fast track to robotaxi we should see massive improvements on subsequent releases for all the major issues that people are reporting, followed by as adiggs said a more statistically observable improvement over time given that it will be generally perceived to be perfect by the average user.
My big fear is that it only takes one bad oops where people die and it really is the car's fault for there to be a large backlash. See Cruise for an example.
Any time major indices lose their 50 day SMA we see this. Earnings do not seem to matter.
We lost 50 day SMA on QQQ a few days ago and we have been struggling to sustain any kind of rally or DCB.
It felt like TSLA was going to put in a DCB late evening but the selling pressure was intense.
Talking about model 2 and robotaxi yes they might have the same platform but you have to think the form factors are going to be different it’s not just a matter of removing the steering wheel from model 2.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Same thing happen to TSM.
Expectation or Euphoria has changed.
Cannot Imaging going into ER with actually bad earning.....But with a stock that been beaten up so bad before ER......?
dc_h
Active Member
Legal eagles make you hold the steering wheel. Annoying, if they can just have the camera make sure you are watching. Prior to 12.3, I would hold on anyhow, since it would make some erratic moves without warning. FSD 11.x was suicidal.
Last time was the Shareholder meeting last year in May, he was so jolly and confident, everything seemed possible and the stock 2x-ed up in the next six weeks or so...
Yeah, that’s because Zack was doing all the work and talking.. at least about $$ and Strategy and roadmap. The stock was at ~ $300 just before he left and still at $275 shortly after - numbers we haven’t seen since.
We need a new Zack the current guy can be good at his job but he is terrible at communication.
You underestimate people’s enthusiasm in beating a dead snake . ER scares me the most . It has been brutal past few earnings call, all the gloom and doom is extremely depressing .
Also it’s so easy to bait Elon into responding to some stupid comments and tweets with his equally unforgettable replies .he is so obliging .
When sound bites can manipulate the share price so easily , Shortzies know how to get what they need .
We need Elon to be in Zen mode.
Am I asking for too much ?
This right here is exactly the sort of anecdotes we'll be having while the software is still not all that close to ready, but still heading in the right direction. Features where the experience has noticeable differences among users like this.
I used to teach an introductory data science class for business people. One of the common questions people would ask is how long these projects take to run. For project management people these things are a nightmare. They're not done until they're done, and they frequently look like they are nowhere close, until suddenly they're not just close - they're done (business application to table data; way, way simpler than the problem Tesla is solving).
There is a solid hypothesis that a solution can and will be found, but this is something we have never done before. And its hard. We could still be decades away from a general purpose driving AI. I don't think that's true, but really far out there / never-before-been-done technology can easily experience this kind of extended trip from the lab and into production use.
Here's an example - EUV lithography.
This one is also ridiculously hard, though in a different way, from self-driving, but it illustrates the idea.
Rough timeline:
1990 idea
1997 R&D on an EUV prototype lithography machine begins
2008 first chips from an EUV machine
2010 prototype EUV litho machine at a customer
...
9 more years to commercial products built at least partially using EUV litho.
(In this case the problem wasn't making the light and printing circuits at small scale. The problem was (my phrase) making the light bright enough to print circuits fast enough to make the use of EUV litho economic. Only 1 additional decade for that last little bit.
Definitely not trying to compare the difficulty between the two - they're too different to make such a comparison meaningful. Just using this as an illustration where something that looked good in a lab and which seemed reasonable to predict would being used in production any year now went on for a decade or more.
On the positive side, the last time we dropped like this, Dec 2022, we were selling puts every week saying “this has to be the bottom”, they were getting assigned, some of us were getting margin calls almost daily, @BornToFly had to sell his plane, general fear and panic all round
Aside a few DITM puts to look after, the general feeling now seems to be “bring it!”
Much better prepared, less risks taken, hedged in place and faster reactions to fix losing trades
Good job!
Aside a few DITM puts to look after, the general feeling now seems to be “bring it!”
Much better prepared, less risks taken, hedged in place and faster reactions to fix losing trades
Good job!
What the actual F is going on? Do people not read master plan part 3? It's about moving tonnage. If fsd is not ready, there's no way in freezing hell will Elon compromise the master plan of moving products due to hubris or whatever the F narrative people are coming up with.
Isn’t Elon supposed to be a good listener without any ego
Let's hope the likes of Ron Barron are in Elon's ear prior to earnings.
For the RT car (RT could also be in other form factors), it should share 90+% with M2. So how hard to say we are building a line that will support both RT and M2.If in 18 mths RT is solved line is there to make RT. If RT is not solved, line is there to make M2. How hard is that from 1st principles approach ?
Why are people this dumb? Elon is probably rolling into madness by the share stupidity of analysts right now.
What's so dumb when:
1.Franz had to 1st convince Elon to do Model 2 in the 1st place. (this was when like FSD was v10 , not useable for more than 30 secs-1 min without disengagement for me)
2. Reuters reported on the story that it was put on hold/cancelled, Elon said Reuters lied, now new reports do suggest it is put on hold
3. Elon "balls to wall", everything else is extension of carriage - has left every thing open to interpretation
Now tell me why are people dumb enough to think that - those who look at the above breadcrumbs and think there is a chance that Elon really says what he means are so dumb?
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