No, he didn't. For someone that likes to be very pedantic, you got the quote wrong. (Or purposely left off the beginning to support your argument.) He said: "I think Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks." Meaning that he wasn't sure if Elon did or not. That leaves it up to each individual to determine if Elon did or did not answer the question about the $25k vehicle in his opening remarks.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
So, for me at least todays (yesterday now) TSLA doesn’t really change the narrative at all, or the expected price movement..
AH we got some SC, today it’s a DCB, and some final short covering. If you’re short calls > $170, I think you’re safe.. even ~ 167.5$ is probably going to be ok.
I think what we’ll have is a short term floor ~ $150-155, for a SHORT time. (I think I posted this last week)
There wasn’t enough in the call to make ME at least think that there is a short/medium term catalyst to move the stock higher..
RT, is still just as ethereal and unknown as it was going INTO that call. we had some more comments from EM about how great 12.5 is going to be, I’ll wait and see. I’ve been OBJECTIVELY driving FSDb for going on 3 years (maybe it’s 2.5) and I SEE the progress, but I don’t think regardless of whatever happens 8/8 that something significant is going to happen or be released or be NEAR release for RT - no matter what slideware they put into a earnings deck.
The mkt and SOME shareholders have heard EM cry wolf so many times now, it’s SHOW me time.
I think the tepid pivot narrative about model 2, lower cost EV was as well a bit of a short term objective. Two weeks ago, we heard “model 2 cancelled to prioritize RT”.. then EM said “that’s a lie”,,, then it was yes, well we’re focusing on RT… yesterday, it wasn’t that there is going to be a Model 2, but rather that with “existing platforms”: which means M3, factories, battery packs they are going to make somehow a cheaper M3/M2.. That’s fine, AUTO companies do that all the time. current suppliers, current SUPPLY, current or more productive manufacturing gets cheaper over time. Maybe the carrosserie changes… smaller, cheaper, simpler materials, 2170 cells, packs, etc.. I think they for sure could bring a sub 30K car (it doesn’t need to be 25K anymore really) and I think they will sell in volume.
that is not THE WAY.
Q2, I think we’ll still see declining sales, whatever metric.. QoQ, YoY, you pick. Revenues will be the same, lower, even WITH 14K employees offloaded. That only yields ~ 250M quarterly in “savings:” and even then what with severance and HC expense carry over, it’s might be closer to a wash. At that point we’ll see then 2 quarters of negative FCF, and another ~ 2B in drawdown. that won’t go over well. Mkt will probably sniff that out in advance though.
We heard some candy narrative about FSD being “discussed with one OEM” for licensing… we heard this rumor about 2 months ago now, now it’s down to one.. ok, that’s fine. Here’s my trip-9 wild card for even if that is true. It’s a CHINESE OEM.. there, I said it. there are many reasons for this to be possible, but to think it’s F, GM, TM, VW (all of which I own) I seriously doubt it. TWT.
@thenewguy1979 , you asked about Mkt correction. We’re getting a nice bounce here, but let’s get past FRIDAY (PCE) and this and next week (90% of the mega cap leaders that have LED this rally since Oct 2023).. that can change a lot.
My feeling, NO… the short term narrative has not changed - 3-6 months. Last week I bought back ~75K of 125K of sold calls for 1/10th, but I’m now RE-SELLING calls for June and even some for MAY. this is mostly again big cap tech, mega caps, some industrial, some financial, some travel.
If we ATM again in the S&P and NDQ I’ll continue to be a net seller and raise cash or at least sell calls. It will be almost certainly a blow off top, with MM having bought cheap puts last March, pushing the mkt down, then selling HIGH, then buying CHEAP CALLS mid April, pumping, then selling high.
TSLA, I’d say that sub $150 again is higher probability than >$180. For my remaining position (which is less than 1% AUM) I’ll look to sell $175 for June/July if we can get ~ 5%.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
....wow.
You're gonna hang handing out half a dozen disagrees on reading "think" as "the VP of manufacturing doesn't understand what car the CEO was talking about like 20 minutes ago"
Not to mention the REST of his answer to "When 25k car" was ALSO about the made-on-same-lines vehicle.
Which is the 25k vehicle.
As is super clear actually reading what was said on the call.
GL to you!
Anyway, on actual topic- sold some 167.50 and 170 calls for Friday early today- both recently got up to around 50% green, but I'm gonna let these theta bleed unless/until the stock seems serious about staying over 165
I think we have a short to medium term floor at $150, but in my 3-5 month duration we could see sub $130 again. No real solid measurable catalysts in that time frame. Only price cut, lower sales, lower margins, possibly rate buy downs, etc.
I am only competent with CC, This looks appealing and i am nort experienced. I would like to learn could you please give me some details on both the options if possible. Appreciated thanks.
Let's have a quick call and sort this out? Anyone game? There's a space on X I participate in in about 3 hours here:
Here are some words. A lot of words. A whole lot of words.
One could be forgiven for TLDRing a post a fraction the size.
TLDR for that post, the split/flip/splitflip are fundamentally no different than a standard "roll out the covered call to a better strike" strategy, other than being slightly more creative/complex.
The important thing to know that when you're rolling [in a regular full-options level account] you a) don't have to roll to an equivalent number of contracts and b) don't have to roll to the same type of contract (put vs call). So for a split, you might take your 10 put spreads and split them to 20 put spreads. For a flip you might take 10 put put spreads and flip them to 10 call spreads. For the split flip you might take the 10 put spreads and, over the course of two 4-leg trade tickets, roll them into 20 iron condors.
The reason you might split a position is because you can split the unfavorable value of those 10 spreads over 20 spreads instead, which allows you to also roll to a more favorable strike/expiry--better theta, lower ∆. The reason you might flip a position is in the event you think underlying is going to continue going in the [currently] unfavorable direction, which of course will dig an opposite position out from being underwater. Combine logic for a split flip, or make up whatever creative solution you want.
For instance, I once was in a bad way on 10 spreads, and I didn't have margin to make any of the above strategies return material recovery. So I basically just played the 'standard' roll game on 9 of the spreads, and split one of the spreads into 10 weekly ICs. It took a few weeks to burn off those ICs to expiring OTM. Then I took another spread, and split it into 11 ICs this time and again burned it off over the course of a few weeks (while standard rolling the other 8). After a few months I got out of the shitty place without massively running up my margin and without adding a massive additional amount of exposure.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well that was quick! less than 30 minutes later they jumped to almost 70% green and I marked it good enough for a ~2.5 hour trade and closed both the -C167.50s and -C170s sold this morning.
This is what I have trouble with. I'm kicking myself for closing the -160/+165P earlier for half the potential value. I always try to hold until Expiry. I need to be better about taking profits and not look at the remaining profits I COULD make if I just hold longer....
You think we're going to see QoQ decline in sales? I can see (likely) YoY declines, but I would be very surprised to see Q2 have less deliveries than Q1. I shudder to think what that would do to the SP.
QoQ decline is certainly lower prob that YoY…I’m more concerned with China contribution to overall sales, lower NA sales and what we have clearly seen as lower EMEA sales… they are giving cars away in Australia, that might keep sales hold, but negative margin.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks Professor Tivoboy. Was expecting some short answers but you outdo yourself again with the Master thesis
Elon and Tesla just needed to do enough to bridge the next 3 and a half months until Aug 8th.
I think they did that and more. While it's silly to put an expectation on Aug 8th, I wouldn't be surprised if Elon is hard at work trying to secure a FSD licensing deal to announce on Aug 8th to essentially guarantee the event is a success, no matter how close or far an operational Robotaxi network is.
Not to to stoke anyone's FOMO here because I'm definitely not trading on this feeling, but I think the stock is set up for another 2021 run where it bottomed in spring and then the Hertz announcement happened and then the 60% run in just a month. I think the FSD licensing deal will be the Hertz announcement.
Another reason I think this scenario is possible is the underlining belief that Wall St always wants to make as much money as possible. And they way they're going to make the most money, especially through options, is to have TSLA trading in wide range. The amount of money they can be make with TSLA sitting in this low range is nothing compared to what they could make by running it right back up to ATH only to pull the rug again to some degree.
Wall St just needs a "reason" to start FOMO again and run this thing right back up. But again, I'm not positioning or trading for the outcome. If it happens, I'll gladly sit back and de-risk by taking some profits it we go back into the range of ATH's and sell CC's on the way up once we get past 300/share.
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I heard zero confirmation that a "Model 2" would be made, ergo the compact everyone wants, rather that they're going to retool existing lines to make a cheaper car, which indeed could be a bare-bones M3 for all we know
Elon could easily have stated very clearly that the M2 was still in the roadmap, but he didn't
Honestly, it all sounded very evasive to me, I'm not trying to be contrary, I just didn't get the clear guidance on that I was looking for
Anyway, back to more urgent matters...
Rolled 100x TSLA 4/25 -c140 -> 5/3 100x -p165 + 75x -c140 + 25x -c160, for around +$9k
I THINK the Hertz announcement was good for about a 25% run overall (other than maybe a top tick), but for me, I have no concern that will happen here..
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
There is not, and never has been, any car named the M2 or Model 2.
Elon himself explicitly debunked that name almost 3 years ago.
Elon Musk Says at Shareholders Meeting That There Is No Model 2
The entry-level Tesla conceived in China will have a different name, not the one people are expecting for the compact electric
www.autoevolution.com
There HAS always been a cheaper future vehicle. Many refer to it as the 25k car.
The citations I quoted from the call make clear that's the one that's coming late this year or early next- built on existing lines.
The ONLY change from "25k car will be be 100% unboxed" to the new "25k will be on existing lines with some new stuff" (as Lars called out) is the margins may be narrower than an unboxed 25k car.... but with far less capex to be able to make a million plus of em.
And then an unboxed vehicle is ALSO coming, but later. That could simply be "25k with better margins" or it could be an even cheaper price point. TBD.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Macro is waiting for earning from META and MSFT.
QQQ is flat for now.
PCE Friday is another wild card.
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