So, for me at least todays (yesterday now) TSLA doesn’t really change the narrative at all, or the expected price movement..
AH we got some SC, today it’s a DCB, and some final short covering. If you’re short calls > $170, I think you’re safe.. even ~ 167.5$ is probably going to be ok.
I think what we’ll have is a short term floor ~ $150-155, for a SHORT time. (I think I posted this last week)
There wasn’t enough in the call to make ME at least think that there is a short/medium term catalyst to move the stock higher..
RT, is still just as ethereal and unknown as it was going INTO that call. we had some more comments from EM about how great 12.5 is going to be, I’ll wait and see. I’ve been OBJECTIVELY driving FSDb for going on 3 years (maybe it’s 2.5) and I SEE the progress, but I don’t think regardless of whatever happens 8/8 that something significant is going to happen or be released or be NEAR release for RT - no matter what slideware they put into a earnings deck.
The mkt and SOME shareholders have heard EM cry wolf so many times now, it’s SHOW me time.
I think the tepid pivot narrative about model 2, lower cost EV was as well a bit of a short term objective. Two weeks ago, we heard “model 2 cancelled to prioritize RT”.. then EM said “that’s a lie”,,, then it was yes, well we’re focusing on RT… yesterday, it wasn’t that there is going to be a Model 2, but rather that with “existing platforms”: which means M3, factories, battery packs they are going to make somehow a cheaper M3/M2.. That’s fine, AUTO companies do that all the time. current suppliers, current SUPPLY, current or more productive manufacturing gets cheaper over time. Maybe the carrosserie changes… smaller, cheaper, simpler materials, 2170 cells, packs, etc.. I think they for sure could bring a sub 30K car (it doesn’t need to be 25K anymore really) and I think they will sell in volume.
that is not THE WAY.
Q2, I think we’ll still see declining sales, whatever metric.. QoQ, YoY, you pick. Revenues will be the same, lower, even WITH 14K employees offloaded. That only yields ~ 250M quarterly in “savings:” and even then what with severance and HC expense carry over, it’s might be closer to a wash. At that point we’ll see then 2 quarters of negative FCF, and another ~ 2B in drawdown. that won’t go over well. Mkt will probably sniff that out in advance though.
We heard some candy narrative about FSD being “discussed with one OEM” for licensing… we heard this rumor about 2 months ago now, now it’s down to one.. ok, that’s fine. Here’s my trip-9 wild card for even if that is true. It’s a CHINESE OEM.. there, I said it. there are many reasons for this to be possible, but to think it’s F, GM, TM, VW (all of which I own) I seriously doubt it. TWT.
@thenewguy1979 , you asked about Mkt correction. We’re getting a nice bounce here, but let’s get past FRIDAY (PCE) and this and next week (90% of the mega cap leaders that have LED this rally since Oct 2023).. that can change a lot.
My feeling, NO… the short term narrative has not changed - 3-6 months. Last week I bought back ~75K of 125K of sold calls for 1/10th, but I’m now RE-SELLING calls for June and even some for MAY. this is mostly again big cap tech, mega caps, some industrial, some financial, some travel.
If we ATM again in the S&P and NDQ I’ll continue to be a net seller and raise cash or at least sell calls. It will be almost certainly a blow off top, with MM having bought cheap puts last March, pushing the mkt down, then selling HIGH, then buying CHEAP CALLS mid April, pumping, then selling high.
TSLA, I’d say that sub $150 again is higher probability than >$180. For my remaining position (which is less than 1% AUM) I’ll look to sell $175 for June/July if we can get ~ 5%.