Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

Last price on these is now down to $3.85 for a ~50% loss in ~24 hours if that buyer hasn't already closed out that position...

3 more weeks, it's too early to tell but market seems to be betting 3/31 ~190

 

[InTheMiddle]

3 more weeks, it's too early to tell

So very true! My main take away from watching this is as a reminder of how quickly a trade can take a poor turn...and examples like this (50% drop in 24 hrs, even if unrealized and potentially reversed over the next 3 weeks) really prove the point of your signature.

 

[jeewee3000]

Hmm, for 5/10 I've got -190c's on the line versus -190p's and -187.5p's.

Only enough cash to execute either the 190p's or the 187.5 p's.

Theta of the 190p's is down to around $0.5, the 187.5p's to $0.8.

In serious doubt to start rolling the puts, but on the other hand we could easily end up around $185-190 this friday.

Update:

I rolled the 5/10 -190p's to 5/24 -190p's for $2.2 gain per contract.

I rolled the 5/10 -187.5p's to 6/7 -180p's for slight gain per contract ($0.2).

I rolled the 5/10 -190c's to 5/24 -200c's for $0.88 gain per contract. (I know, I could let these expire BUT if TSLA were to recover by the end of this week to +190 I'd kick myself. Now it forms a nice strangle with my puts for that week)

A bit of everything. I checked out longer rolls but the theta drain per week is so much greater. I'd rather roll the -190p's another two weeks out when we get closer to 5/24 for extra profit. Early assignment seems unlikely and as @dl003 pointed out (among others) early assignment is a non-issue for those that can handle themselves.

 

[thenewguy1979]

IMOTEP was in a good mood today.

Market rebounded from the morning gloom, except for AAPL.....that rebound from SMCI and NVDA would have made some great scalping.....

 

[dl003]

My read is still the same.
Today may be as far as SPY goes. 480 / low 160s next.
255-265 later this year is still on schedule.

 

[Jim Holder]

My read is still the same.
Today may be as far as SPY goes. 480 / low 160s next.
255-265 later this year is still on schedule.

Thanks for the update.

What's your guess for timeframe for TSLA $160 and are you selling calls here today (~$180), say -C190 7/14?

 

[dl003]

Good example of how falling wedge plays out

Now apply it to this big one

 

[dl003]

Thanks for the update.

What's your guess for timeframe for TSLA $160 and are you selling calls here today (~$180), say -C190 7/14?

I'm scalping CC using my new strategy. It doesn't call for long dated ATM CCs until momentum fizzles out on the daily timeframe.

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm scalping CC using my new strategy. It doesn't call for long dated ATM CCs until momentum fizzles out on the daily timeframe.

Thanks. What's your guess for timeframe for TSLA $160?

 

[dl003]

Thanks. What's your guess for timeframe for TSLA $160?

by end of May

 

[thenewguy1979]

Market is spooked.

 

[thenewguy1979]

by end of May

Thanks dl003. Please advise if you see anything for NVDA?

 

[dl003]

Thanks dl003. Please advise if you see anything for NVDA?

I see it trading in the 920-770 range until August when it'll break out.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Those buyers are very likely in a pretty sad state of financial affairs if they're buying a vehicle they don't want only for a lower monthly payment. I really do hope Tesla isn't trying to scrape the bottom of the consumer barrel, because when these folks run into difficult times they may not be able to make their monthly auto payment. Subprime borrowers are not what Tesla (or any company) needs right now. Yeah moving a vehicle might look good short term, but it might end up costing more than it's worth down the road when the borrower defaults and Tesla has to repossess a vehicle (which costs time and money) that has suffered damage/neglect, requiring even more time and money to get it sellable again, if it even can be resold.

Some customers simply aren't worth having and are best turned away. I'd rather Tesla not give out loans and cars to people who might default, which may be even more likely now considering the recent layoff and cost cutting announcements.

All markets are cyclical. The entire auto industry is in a bit of a lull right now. It's also not a good look for Ford or Toyota or VW etc to be giving out 0% loans when interest rates are as high as they are. Clearly their sales are hurting, too, otherwise they wouldn't need 0% loans to move vehicles.

Isn’t more than 80% of daily workers living paycheck to paycheck? I guess that’s the capitalist hyper consumerism our system has developed.

by end of May

rolled my 165 CC from this Friday to 170 in 1 month just to give me time and a bit of maneuver to react when we get there

 

[OrthoSurg]

was kidding on Buffet, I know he will not buy TSLA, doesn't meet criteria ..

but atleast they are cognizent that Tesla could disrupt their whole insurance business And might be some thought for many more who attend the annual retreat.

S&P500 inclusion
BRK inclusion
Robotaxi inclusion
Once the trifecta is completed Elon can dump again to buy Apple and Saudi Aramco combined

 

[EVMeister]

I see it trading in the 920-770 range until August when it'll break out.

Unless the CEO posts some unhinged musings on X whi...

Oh wait, wrong CEO and company.

 

[Singuy]

My read is still the same.
Today may be as far as SPY goes. 480 / low 160s next.
255-265 later this year is still on schedule.

So basically all calls should be closed in the low 160s for this year?

 

[thenewguy1979]

So basically all calls should be closed in the low 160s for this year?

We have 2 numbers

dl003 - low 160's
tivoboy - mid 140's

@Jim Holder - missing your daily charts where all the top and bottom numbers were combined from various sources

 

[Jim Holder]

We have 2 numbers

dl003 - low 160's
tivoboy - mid 140's

@Jim Holder - missing your daily charts where all the top and bottom numbers were combined from various sources

 

[Jim Holder]

Dealer delta exposure kept growing today, might weigh down any run: