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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I've been holding off selling CC's the past few days, even for scalps. With the SP appearing to be in an unstable state lately (i.e., 160-138-168-198-176-187-183, etc.). Afraid of a steamroller/news event. Also a bit of PTSD from BTC -C165 5/17 at the low $190's for a decent loss, then seeing TSLA come back to $176 last week :rolleyes:

How have you been playing TSLA when it behaves like this, or do you just sit it out too?
 
I've been holding off selling CC's the past few days, even for scalps. With the SP appearing to be in an unstable state lately (i.e., 160-138-168-198-176-187-183, etc.). Afraid of a steamroller/news event. Also a bit of PTSD from BTC -C165 5/17 at the low $190's for a decent loss, then seeing TSLA come back to $176 last week :rolleyes:

How have you been playing TSLA when it behaves like this, or do you just sit it out too?
Isn't this how TSLA is always?
 
It’s a ruse, unfortunately. The agreement they “agreed” to is not even on the table. It’s a ping-pong, this time to make Israel look bad for not accepting.
100% agree.. IDF was literally on the top of the fence…why wouldn’t Hamas just say “uncle, ok, we agree”.. and they change it all a week or two from now.

I’ll take it though, time for selling more July calls.
 
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So when is NVDA at $600 coming? This week or next week? 😅
Maybe you missed this post last Friday

My AI is telling me ~ $935 for NVDA in short order. I’m going to look to sell more calls again if we get up there. It would take quite a lot to get us back under $800 in the NEAR term.
Update after posting: And It’s now pointing to 967
 
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I’ll take it though, time for selling more July calls.
I’ve been using -C260 12/20/2024 (228 days) as a scalp vehicle, so even if they go very red on some surprise ($200+), I’ll just be out of action on a tranche of cons until they expire but my shares will be okay.

July (78 days) sounds good since it expires sooner than December, though for any decent premium need to come NTM. -C200 pays $10.50 now. What did you have in mind?
 
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I’ve been using -C260 12/20/2024 (228 days) as a scalp vehicle, so even if they go very red on some surprise ($200+), I’ll just be out of action but my shares will be okay.

July (78 days) sounds good since it expires sooner than December, though for any decent premium need to come NTM. -C200 pays $10.50 now. What did you have in mind?
I’m more confident with higher volatility between now and July, than in Dec.. Most elections years REGARDLESS of outcome - but this time really could be different, markets rally or at least stabilize post mid November. TWT.
 
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Would you say -c200 July-24 @ around $10.50 is kinda “safe” bet NFA?
Well, nothing is ever truly safe, but we’ll be past Q2 earnings most likely then (7/17/24?), and Q2 P&D, so unless everyone is just assuming BAD/BAD again, we could rally. All these job cuts won’t add TOO much to reducing negative earnings - since everything pretty much comes with 1-3 months of severance, or HC expense and in some states additional contributions to a more annualized SUI contributions.. overhead will most likely be reduced more by just MAKING LESS and reducing COGS.

There is SUPER hard resistance just below $200 and again just below $212… so trying to stay just ABOVE $212 all in would be my target.

A little more participation from TSLA with a general market rally. - which we are NOT yet getting, might push the July -cc200 to ~ $12. I’d probably sell there.
 
There is SUPER hard resistance just below $200 and again just below $212… so trying to stay just ABOVE $212 all in would be my target.

Thanks for teaching me something new. The “All in” concept is a good point. This implies that even IF $200 is breached, and even IF $212 is breached (two big IF’s; 2nd one apparently more unlikely before a retrace down) then selling -C200 for $12 nets the same cash if we sold shares then. It only fails if somehow TSLA passes $212 and heads for the $220’s for some reason, but then we can roll.

I’ll probably try a few -C210 7/19 @$8.00ish (net $218.00) just to add a bit of buffer/less stress.
 
Maybe you missed this post last Friday
NVDA and SMCI on steamroller mode....both are aiming at upper BB.

1715026320472.png


1715026366468.png


TSLA is doing the flat dance. Perhaps waiting for a Catalyst to make a big move.

1715026437391.png
 
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Thanks for teaching me something new. The “All in” concept is a good point. This implies that even IF $200 is breached, and even IF $212 is breached (two big IF’s; 2nd one apparently more unlikely before a retrace down) then selling -C200 for $12 nets the same cash if we sold shares then. It only fails if somehow TSLA passes $212 and heads for the $220’s for some reason, but then we can roll.

I’ll probably try a few -C210 7/19 @$8.00ish (net $218.00) just to add a bit of buffer/less stress.
Yes, but,

For me, I’m often in this type of ALL IN target (and that doesn’t mean what it means in Texas hold’em)..because that is where I see total value for X at Y timeframe with Zed risk. But, for the most part I’m doing this all in relatively large TAX deferred accounts, so IF I get my all in target, meaning called away at $200 if the price like $212 (usually it’s lower) I’m fine taking the total cash, and just rebuying when the inevitable price fall occurs. Of, if it doesn’t I’ll buy higher and sell more calls - OR for the most part I just look for a better target vehicle for the time being in another equity.
 
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How have you been playing TSLA when it behaves like this, or do you just sit it out too?
Personally... writing ITM calls and hoping they get assigned. I still have a lot of shares, but the stock has become too volital to be a dominant part of my portfolio. I'm also writing some DITM LEAP puts that I will try to trade take gains where I can. I don't think it is a great strategy; I think the stock should be at $220 right now and I hate selling at the discount. I would describe myself as "strategically capitulating".
 
This is who the Bears pray to now......

Imotep ;) coming at you 11:30ET tommorow... Be ready...



View attachment 1044925
There is indeed NO uncertainty who ‘Bad Cop’ is within the federal governors space..

“I don’t see sub 2% inflation ANYWHERE on the horizon, let alone even 2%”
“Frankly, we undershot for so many years sub 2%, that we needed to overshoot 2% for several years. Now, we’ll have to see SEVERAL quarters sub 2%, or even YEARS maybe to be confident that it won’t re-appear in short order”
“I just had dinner with Chariman Powell last week while I was in Washington, and I think he’s finally coming around to my thesis”
“At this point with interest rates, we’ve simply gotten back to the long term historical trend, having spent several decades after the financial crises BELOW trend, so it’s probably best just to stay here longer than one would expect”
“If I had my druthers, we’d RAISE rates another 50 bps, just to increase confidence that inflation won’t re-appear later this year or early next!”
“My expectation is that CPI inflation won’t be below 2% till we’ve had labor force unemployment over 5.5% for 2-3 quarters, so the sooner we get there, the better”

I think I could play him in the movie version of Federal Reserve Nights.
 
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