Semi General Discussion

[Suns_PSD]

Not in a 2024 motor, unless the selling dealer has available diesel slots, as a result of selling 5% EVs.

There are also some partial credits from selling CNG. There is a ratio, like a CNG truck = 2/3 of an EV or something like that.

Also, cause the slots are limited, they are going to blow your head off on price. Can't call out of state and just buy one from Miller or whatever, cause you won't be able to register it.

Trust me, it's already happened to me.

 

[ThomasD]

Why isn't California trying to keep Businesses in the State.

Every Company Leaving California: 2020-2024 | Buildremote

The remote work revolution has driven companies to find a better home. Here is the complete list of companies leaving California since 2020.

buildremote.co

 

[Nack]

Not trying to argue, but just trying to clarify:

Re: The first highlighted portion: they would sell at a loss because it's the only way they can legally sell diesel semis in CA as of today that actually make money and the Net profit is higher for the company.
Re: The second highlighted portion: You are incorrect. I am in the industry. Heavy Duty truck dealers are already out of slots for diesels in CA for 2024, at least until they sell more EVs. You cannot register a 2024 built engine in the state of CA unless the selling dealer has the available slots as a result of them selling EV's. This is the law right now, today, for every truck bought in CA. Furthermore, if you didn't get a diesel truck registered with CalTrans by 12-31-23, that truck will never be allowed in the LA Port. Only EV's from here going forward.

Also worth noting is that several manufacturers have taken 9 figure baths on their EV businesses, so it's not really fair to say that know one sells at a loss. Ford does, GM does. People do it all of the time for various reasons and in fact Tesla did it at first.

Ford and GM do not make heavy duty vehicles, they make passenger cars (and trucks) which is very different for the reasons I mentioned previously. If the HD companies can’t sell trucks in CA, its not their problem. Its a major market, but they will have the rest of the country. If the rule was on a National scale it would be different, but thats not how it is.

Tesla sold at a loss, but not sure if that was just for the vehicle, or the vehicle + GHG credit sale. Tesls makes a lot of money selling GHG credits so people can drive hellcats and SUVs. I think its dumb, but those are the rules. All the EV sales just make it so the other companies don’t have to have vehicles compliant with fuel economy standards.

The truck dealers are playing it safe. The law is passed in CA but it has no teeth until the EPA grants a waiver so ARB can pass rules that require a higher standard. The waiver is on hold, but will most likely be passed so the dealers don’t want to have to play catch up (which is smart).

An article covering it:California diesel ban update: Do fleets need to comply?

 

[Nack]

Why isn't California trying to keep Businesses in the State.

Every Company Leaving California: 2020-2024 | Buildremote

The remote work revolution has driven companies to find a better home. Here is the complete list of companies leaving California since 2020.

buildremote.co

You have to remember, regulators have a job to make rules. They aren’t required to make rules that make sense! Unfortunate side effect

This link gives some more info on the EV truck requirements: https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2019/121219/pres19-12-4.pdf

ARBs website is hard to find what you need and they don’t have fact sheets like EPA. I think this presentation although a little older gives a good overall picture. Newer ones focus mainly on proposed edits.

 

[nativewolf]

Ford and GM do not make heavy duty vehicles, they make passenger cars (and trucks) which is very different for the reasons I mentioned previously. If the HD companies can’t sell trucks in CA, its not their problem. Its a major market, but they will have the rest of the country. If the rule was on a National scale it would be different, but thats not how it is.

Tesla sold at a loss, but not sure if that was just for the vehicle, or the vehicle + GHG credit sale. Tesls makes a lot of money selling GHG credits so people can drive hellcats and SUVs. I think its dumb, but those are the rules. All the EV sales just make it so the other companies don’t have to have vehicles compliant with fuel economy standards.

The truck dealers are playing it safe. The law is passed in CA but it has no teeth until the EPA grants a waiver so ARB can pass rules that require a higher standard. The waiver is on hold, but will most likely be passed so the dealers don’t want to have to play catch up (which is smart).

An article covering it:California diesel ban update: Do fleets need to comply?

CA leads the nation in Medium and Heavy truck sales, so it is a huge market. I would guess people setup fleets in Reno and Arizona and don't keep them in California for X days a year thus skirting rules. Just a guess. but Sun can probably tell us exactly what folks will do.

 

[Suns_PSD]

Yes, people are just setting up businesses in AZ/ NV/ OR, etc. As long as they can show one trip annually out of the state at this time, they are fine.

Also, I know of a guy that is just having his leasing company buy his truck and lease it to him in CA as a work around.

CA is a HUGE trucking market. Literally has the same number of truck sales as probably the bottom 35 states in the union put together.

 

[Suns_PSD]

Ford and GM do not make heavy duty vehicles, they make passenger cars (and trucks) which is very different for the reasons I mentioned previously. If the HD companies can’t sell trucks in CA, its not their problem. Its a major market, but they will have the rest of the country. If the rule was on a National scale it would be different, but thats not how it is.

Tesla sold at a loss, but not sure if that was just for the vehicle, or the vehicle + GHG credit sale. Tesls makes a lot of money selling GHG credits so people can drive hellcats and SUVs. I think its dumb, but those are the rules. All the EV sales just make it so the other companies don’t have to have vehicles compliant with fuel economy standards.

The truck dealers are playing it safe. The law is passed in CA but it has no teeth until the EPA grants a waiver so ARB can pass rules that require a higher standard. The waiver is on hold, but will most likely be passed so the dealers don’t want to have to play catch up (which is smart).

An article covering it:California diesel ban update: Do fleets need to comply?

This article you linked doesn't even cover what we are talking about but instead is specific to the Drayage (Long Beach Port) ban on new diesels being allowed to register and enter the port post 1-1-24.

Once again, a dealer has to sell the required percent of EV semis in CA to be allowed to sell a CARB certified 2024 (engine, not model year of chassis) and for it to be registered in CA right now, today.

The fact that you believe that manufacturers can walk away from the nation's largest market, shows a real disconnect with reality.

Peterbilt specifically probably sells 50% of their total production in CA as the brand is huge in CA.

Same with car manufacturers and the reason they have often sued CA for emissions laws. They simply can't afford to give up the market as it's too large.

 

[ThomasD]

Doesn't the law require that a certain number of Medium Duty Trucks sold be electric also?

 

[Nack]

You guys can think what you want, but California is really not that big of a sales state for overall volume. It's in the top 10 but closer to the bottom of that ranking. I can't give specifics as it would be considered proprietary data.

Keep in mind, the trucks you see on the road do not automatically mean they were purchased there. Most of the big fleets are not based out of California or at least do their purchasing of vehicles from other states. Texas sells about double what CA does for instance. A lot of Midwest states where mega fleets are based do similar.

California is a big market, but not a behemoth. All the Section 177 states (ones that adopt ARB rules) combined from the ACT regulation don't make a huge dent in overall sales.

 

[Nack]

Doesn't the law require that a certain number of Medium Duty Trucks sold be electric also?

Here is a chart I had handy that covers the sales requirements for Calfornias ACT

• Class 2b-3 is commercial vans and heavier duty pickup trucks
• Class 4-8 is medium duty
• Class 7-8 is Heavy duty

Model Year​	Class 2b-3 Group​	Class 4-8 Group​	Class 7-8 Tractors Group​
2024​	5%​	9%​	5%​
2025​	7%​	11%​	7%​
2026​	10%​	13%​	10%​
2027​	15%​	20%​	15%​
2028​	20%​	30%​	20%​
2029​	25%​	40%​	25%​
2030​	30%​	50%​	30%​
2031​	35%​	55%​	35%​
2032​	40%​	60%​	40%​
2033​	45%​	65%​	40%​
2034​	50%​	70%​	40%​
2035+​	55%​	75%​	40%​

 

[nativewolf]

You guys can think what you want, but California is really not that big of a sales state for overall volume. It's in the top 10 but closer to the bottom of that ranking. I can't give specifics as it would be considered proprietary data.

Keep in mind, the trucks you see on the road do not automatically mean they were purchased there. Most of the big fleets are not based out of California or at least do their purchasing of vehicles from other states. Texas sells about double what CA does for instance. A lot of Midwest states where mega fleets are based do similar.

California is a big market, but not a behemoth. All the Section 177 states (ones that adopt ARB rules) combined from the ACT regulation don't make a huge dent in overall sales.

It is literally the largest market, #1, of all states for medium and heavy trucks. #1. Period. There is nothing proprietary about the number of trucks being registered by state. It's all tracked in great detail. CA is not quite 10% of the total market but not far off of it. We will outsource trucking until Tesla and others figure out the battery issues.

 

[Suns_PSD]

You guys can think what you want, but California is really not that big of a sales state for overall volume. It's in the top 10 but closer to the bottom of that ranking. I can't give specifics as it would be considered proprietary data.

Keep in mind, the trucks you see on the road do not automatically mean they were purchased there. Most of the big fleets are not based out of California or at least do their purchasing of vehicles from other states. Texas sells about double what CA does for instance. A lot of Midwest states where mega fleets are based do similar.

California is a big market, but not a behemoth. All the Section 177 states (ones that adopt ARB rules) combined from the ACT regulation don't make a huge dent in overall sales.

Your point about percent of new truck purchases makes sense from the standpoint that Warner, Hunt, Walmart, etc. all purchase their fleets in other states.

 

[Buckminster]

Megachargers at Lathrop Megafactory.

Tesla Megachargers hint at active use of Semi at Lathrop Megafactory

A recent drone flyover at Tesla’s Lathrop Megafactory has shown something quite interesting that’s been hiding in plain sight.

www.google.com

 

[Musskiah]

Thanks @Buckminster I forgot about this thread

 

[Buckminster]

Breaking: Tesla Semi Production comes to Giga Berlin

Elon Musk during the Q&A of the Giga Berlin employees today, "I think it makes sense to produce the Semi truck in Europe at Giga Berlin as well," Musk said according to a video recording.

Source Handelsblatt, that wrote it has the video where Elon confirmed it.

 

[Musskiah]

We may assume...

"...that high-volume production of the Tesla Semi will be up and running by the end of the year"
SOURCE: Musk Talks Tesla Semi & Lower Priced Car Production At Grünheide - CleanTechnica

Stated another way "Musk targets high-volume production by the end of 2024."
SOURCE: Tesla to Manufacture Semi at Giga Berlin, Says Elon Musk - TeslaNorth.com

This is a $10B+ revenue boost and $2B or so in profitability, to begin to accrue within the year.

 

[Nack]

Interesting to talk about manufacture at giga Berlin as European semis/prime movers are cab over due to length laws. Maybe the truck is heavy enough they arent concerned sith maximizing cargo? Or will there be a cabover variant?

European trucks generally have a single rear axle and heavier front axles so the current design does not translate well. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

The routes in Europe are better suited to EV trucks IMO so it makes sense to sell there. The other manufacturers sell there too so they would be late to the party again but hopefully can offer a better product.

 

[MP3Mike]

Interesting to talk about manufacture at giga Berlin as European semis/prime movers are cab over due to length laws. Maybe the truck is heavy enough they arent concerned sith maximizing cargo? Or will there be a cabover variant?

There is legislation to allow longer trucks if they are zero-emission: New EU weight limits mean electric trucking is here for the long haul

The draft law also proposes new rules governing so-called mega trucks or gigaliners – truck and trailer combinations 25.25 metres in length, which is almost 9 metres longer than the typical trucks on Europe’s highways.

But they seem to put weird restrictions on them:

Bernardo Galantini said: “Longer and heavier trucks can only be allowed to travel across borders if they are zero emission, avoid urban roads and don’t compete with rail”.

 

[Nack]

Interesting, I did not know that so thanks for pointing it out! I know in some areas they have designated routes you can haul more load on/have longer trucks where the road is built to handle it.

The main feedback from driver/manuf groups is the bridges don’t give a crap if the truck is electric or not, same physics apply! If BEV can do it, all trucks should be able to. I think in this case its more about having minimal overweight use being less of an impact than frequent use.

Generally from the port to a specific factory area or warehouse district. In Victoria there is/was an allowance for heavier and longer trucks to go from the port to the area where Holden/Ford/Toyota were allowed. Not sure if those factories are still operating though as there was talks of closing them down in the late 2000s.

 

[Musskiah]

New Tesla Semi customer. NOT any of the well known buyers like UPS, ANHEUSR BUSCH, WALMART, JBS, ETC...

This will be short "standard range" semis that are shorter and more maneuverable than long range. The market for short haul is large. SR Semi Does not require megachargers. SR has 2 battery packs instead of 3. Two packs are equivalent to 32 power walls.

The short haul market has many players, as it is fragmented "with the top five companies occupying 5.36%. The major players in this market are FedEx, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., Landstar System Inc., Schneider National, Inc. and XPO, Inc. Other important companies include CMA CGM Group, DHL Group, PS Logistics, Ryder System, Inc., United Parcel Service of America, Inc. (UPS)."***

I would suppose it's likely one of these companies.

***Source: United States Short Haul Road Freight Transport Market Share