Another very relevant point regarding Tesla EV Semis is this salient point:
All of the other manufacturers have to sell EV Semis, so that they can continue on with the money-making portion of their businesses, which is selling diesel trucks and the associated parts.
Now I don't have a window into what the manufacturers are doing in this regard, but I do know that they are desperate to sell EV Semis and it's not about making money on them. Consider this: for the other manufacturers to sell 19 diesels into a CARB state in 2024, they have to sell 1 EV (5% EV's in 2024, 7.5% in 2025, etc.). Unfortunately, the EV Semis just aren't selling well enough, so that they can continue to sell diesels to match current demand. Dealers in CA have been turning away diesel orders, since about Jan. 8th because they have no allotment as they have not sold enough EV's.
If I was those diesel truck manufacturers, I'd simply give away the Semi EV's, maybe exactly at the cost of the current rebates ($180K/ unit currently). Then I'd take the $500k or so loss per EV unit and simply divide it by the number of diesels the sale of that EV gave them in CARB states. For instance, they could just add $26,316 to each diesel semi to pay for the 'free' EV semi they sold in 2024. In 2026 when they need to sell 10% EVs, well they can spread the EV losses over the 9 diesels they can sell, or $55,555/ diesel unit sold.
Eventually California residents would either elect new leadership that would alter these laws as the cost of everyday goods continues to climb, or the EV Semis would begin to stand on their own and the manufacturers could actually charge a fair market rate for them.
Now consider, Tesla has no diesel's to sale. They are not going to be in the business of selling them at a loss, or even break even. So how can they ever compete in this arena, from a cost perspective? Maybe Tesla can sell their EV credits to the diesel manufacturers and make money back that way?
The one place where EV's make a lot of sense in trucking, is moving trucks used locally. They are hauling household goods (very lightweight), usually less than 80 miles in a day. They spend time in traffic and at slow speeds, and they go home every night where they can charge. Now that industry is very cheap, and they can't afford EV trucks (most find it the best value to just rent their trucks from Hertz or Penske or whatever) but I see a window where the manufacturers could essentially 'give' moving trucks away to this industry to earn credits so that they can sell their diesels to other clients.