jelloslug
Active Member
There are still many people that would not have normally purchased a $90,000 car but did anyway with the Model S.
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I just hate the iPhone or computer analogy. This is not a consumer electronics device that is replaceable for a relative song, it is a 100k car that would have depreciated 50% after 4 years. My P85 is nearing 4 years. There is no sign it won't operate at a high level for 15. If I find degradation at end of battery warranty and/or new battery with >25% capacity is there for < 10k, I will seriously consider! To trade up at 8 years would be >70k. The only substantial improvement being AP, which ain't worth 70k to me.
Of course by then I'll also have 2 model 3s, so maybe P85 will just have to limp along at 85 until it needs a prohibitive repair.
Then I'll sell to @Btr_ftw, he should be just about done with his water damage restoration by then.
Of course by then I'll also have 2 model 3s, so maybe P85 will just have to limp along at 85 until it needs a prohibitive repair.
Then I'll sell to @Btr_ftw, he should be just about done with his water damage restoration by then.
But once the Model 3 goes into production, a much less expensive car than an S/X and one that will be produced in much higher volumes, the demographics of Tesla owners will change dramatically.
I wasn't disagreeing with him, I was just commenting that the current demographics of Tesla owners skew to the rich and richer.
Yes, it's true that the less rich you are, the less likely you'll buy a new car. But due to the skew that already exists, that's probably a very small percentage of current owners.
I thought we're talking about the Model S and a $10k battery upgrade in 4+ years?
Why would someone who buys a $35k car, spend more on a new battery than the car is worth 4+ years down the line?
I believe this is probably true, so if it costs Tesla a lot of money to train the techs to do the swaps, etc., then it probably wouldn't be profitable. I'm just saying that, if they offer me the choice of a, say $8000 90 kWh battery, or buying a new $100k Model S, I'm going for the battery regardless of the state of AP. I love AP, but I find my usage declining slightly over time because I just like driving the car.
I don't think I'll ever be worth it to get a battery upgrade directly from Tesla. I do see independent specialty shops offering lower cost battery swaps and upgrades that could be worth it. For example I think the following upgrades could be offered for $5000-7000 with used modules, a new battery lid and firmware modification.
14 battery module to 16 module upgrades
Classic 60 kWh -> ~70 kWh
Classic 70 kWh -> 85 kWh
Refreshed 60/70/75 kWh -> 90 kWh
14 battery module to 16 module upgrades
Classic 60 kWh -> ~70 kWh
Classic 70 kWh -> 85 kWh
Refreshed 60/70/75 kWh -> 90 kWh
I'd pay $5k to get a used 85 kWh battery with firmware upgrade (after warranty expiration). Even if the range increase was not that much, it would get me the extra acceleration, especially on the top end. Interestingly, I'm at 22k miles and have virtually no degradation. My 90% charge is 216 miles, which is exactly 90% of the 240 miles my battery is rated for. I haven't range charged in a while, so I'm not sure what my actual max is.
I think latter is important point. Roadster owners had earliest data indicating degredation curve, but I believe most early S owners like me went in concerned about degradation over time. The normal 5% loss during first year stoked that fear. But I think evidence now clear after almost four years that degradation after that first drop is negligible. Remains to be seen for how long. Could it be decades? If so, motives for upgrade would be more about increased badge capacity, output, charging speed than replacing a tired battery.
I think I dropped one level after I wrote the check...
hacer
Active Member
I'm pretty sure I'll never pay to upgrade my 70D to 75 but I did discover a new advantage to doing so during my first 2,000 mile trip: my family takes more time on each SC stop than is needed for charging, especially at meal stops, but even at bathroom breaks. At every single SC stop we charged more than needed before everyone was ready to get back in the car. In many cases the extra time is wasted because once the battery is full, it isn't charging. With a larger battery it could be possible to charge further and maybe make up the time by skipping an SC stop. There was at least one case where 18 more miles capacity would have made that possible. Although I'm sure my son would have complained about too much time driving between stops if we'd done that.
Tesla can get improvements remotely.
People can keep cars for 10-20 years now. Maybe not here on this forum, but in real life.
Those two things make exchanging a battery an option. Market will drive the price.
The software upgrades are limited to the hardware in the car. Not sure if you are an owner but just in case you haven't go check out a 2013 pre 30,000 VIN model S with a new refresh and you will see that software can only go so far. There is a very small percentage of current owners who have spent 6 figures on a new car who will keep it around for more than 6 years. Simply because they have the purchasing power for higher end vehicles.
Agree with most comments here. Its just highly dependent on a lot of factors that are yet to be revealed.
I'm of the demographic where I live very comfortably, but don't necessarily have "F U" money. So, paying $100,000+ for a vehicle was way outside of the norm for me, even though it hasn't affected my qualify of life as far as discretionary spending goes, it's still a very substantial financial decision. I'm not rich enough that I don't have to worry or think about retirement (which is still 20+ years away) and how financial decisions made today affect retirement goals exponentially down the road.
I think the only factor that would sway me in the direction of taking a $80,000+ depreciation hit (assuming this is 5-7 years from now) to upgrade to a new vehicle would be fully autonomous autopilot and a ~330 mile range. Anything less, I'd most likely either take the battery upgrade (price dependent, of course) or stay put.
I'm still ridiculously happy with my Model S.
I'm of the demographic where I live very comfortably, but don't necessarily have "F U" money. So, paying $100,000+ for a vehicle was way outside of the norm for me, even though it hasn't affected my qualify of life as far as discretionary spending goes, it's still a very substantial financial decision. I'm not rich enough that I don't have to worry or think about retirement (which is still 20+ years away) and how financial decisions made today affect retirement goals exponentially down the road.
I think the only factor that would sway me in the direction of taking a $80,000+ depreciation hit (assuming this is 5-7 years from now) to upgrade to a new vehicle would be fully autonomous autopilot and a ~330 mile range. Anything less, I'd most likely either take the battery upgrade (price dependent, of course) or stay put.
I'm still ridiculously happy with my Model S.
Petra
Member
Would I replace the battery after only 4 years? No, not unless I experienced significant degradation. However, if the price were right, I'd certainly consider a pack upgrade near the end of the 8 year warranty or after, depending on how well the Model S holds up with age.
Maybe this is just because I'm not in the habit of buying particularly expensive cars. The Model S was an exception to my usual $35k price ceiling rule--the majority of cars just aren't worth more than that to me, even nice ones. Granted, dumping my Accord after what will likely be only 4 years to add a Model 3 to the stable (at an estimated cost of $40k after incentives) will mean breaking more of my own rules...
Maybe this is just because I'm not in the habit of buying particularly expensive cars. The Model S was an exception to my usual $35k price ceiling rule--the majority of cars just aren't worth more than that to me, even nice ones. Granted, dumping my Accord after what will likely be only 4 years to add a Model 3 to the stable (at an estimated cost of $40k after incentives) will mean breaking more of my own rules...
