Moderator's Note: I've moved 27 posts talking about the giga-factory generally to Official Tesla Gigafactory Discussion Thread . Apologies if this split isn't perfect. Please keep discussions here about the short-term impact on TSLA prices.
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stoebs
Member
Somebody please confirm...that shows the snapshot of amount held short with a settlement date of 2/14...so that means it's actually a snapshot of what was happening 3 days prior, correct? So the share price that we can attribute to that snapshot was what?
Closing price on 2/11 was $196.62, so $5.68 Billion in short interest. Am I understanding this correctly?
yes I believe that's correct. From explanations given previously by others, that's what my understanding is.
Elon and crew will begin the sales process. Filling in details and selling the concept over the months to come. I predict the stock price will rise steadily with the on-going sales pitch.
To everyone I discuss Tesla with I've been saying "No one has ever been permanently injured nor killed in a Tesla."
Now, I will be saying: The new factory will reduce battery pack cost/kWh by more than 30% by the Gen III volume ramp in 2017
To everyone I discuss Tesla with I've been saying "No one has ever been permanently injured nor killed in a Tesla."
Now, I will be saying: The new factory will reduce battery pack cost/kWh by more than 30% by the Gen III volume ramp in 2017
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Looks like Elon's talk tomorrow will also be live streamed. Anyone going?
CPUC Thought Leaders Series
Where: CPUC Auditorium, 505 Van Ness Ave., San Francisco; also available in real-time and archived via video webcast
Who:
Moderator: Paul Clanon, CPUC Executive Director
Panelists:
CPUC Thought Leaders Series
Upcoming Speakers
This event is expected to achieve maximum room capacity. An overflow room will be provided. You are encouraged to arrive early. The session will also be broadcast live and archived via video webcast.
Feb. 27, 2014, 1:30 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.: Innovation and the Impact of Regulation, featuring Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive. The discussion will center on the intersection between regulation and innovation, including how the combined role of government and entrepreneurs can help create a better environment and a better product for the common good. There will be a 45-minute audience-driven question and answer session following the discussion.Where: CPUC Auditorium, 505 Van Ness Ave., San Francisco; also available in real-time and archived via video webcast
Who:
Moderator: Paul Clanon, CPUC Executive Director
Panelists:
- Michael R. Peevey, CPUC President and leader in the energy industry who has worked tirelessly to create energy policies that curb climate change.
- Elon Musk, engineer and entrepreneur who builds and operates companies to solve environmental, social, and economic challenges. He co-founded PayPal and currently drives strategy, development, and design at two companies: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), where he is founder and CEO, and Tesla Motors, where he is co-founder and CEO. He also is Chairman of the Board of a third company, SolarCity.
- Lyndon Rive, co-founder and CEO of SolarCity, has grown the company to be the largest solar power provider in the U.S. in less than eight years of operation. SolarCity has more than 4,500 employees—including more than 2,000 in California—and is currently providing approximately one out of every three new residential solar power systems in America. A lifelong entrepreneur, Mr. Rive founded his first company at age 17. Prior to co-founding SolarCity, Mr. Rive co-founded the enterprise software company Everdream, which was ultimately acquired by Dell.
chickensevil
Active Member
So I was worried about the news, and had put in an order to sell today if the price went back up to 260 tomorrow since I thought we wouldn't hear anything until Friday. Needless to say... I have canceled my sell order and am continuing to hold out just a little bit longer 
Gosh TSLA, you are killing me here... haha! Don't you know I need to sell so I can buy my car?
Gosh TSLA, you are killing me here... haha! Don't you know I need to sell so I can buy my car?
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chickensevil
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either way, hope the price goes up before you sell. I'm in for the long run so not so concerned about the next couple of weeks. I had planned to sell some for a down payment after Q3 ER (assuming it went up) and that didn't workout so well. I've now decided to wait until I can drive the X then decide. I expect my tesla holdings to possibly double between now and the time I could buy an X after waiting a year or more on the list by the time I sign up. Of course I may decide to go with the S at that point if I decide the X isn't needed.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, I am sorry that it didn't work out for you, but at least you stuck with it and got even more back on top of it! Since I have already ordered the car, there is no turning back for me!
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So please tell me if I am missing something here on the 2020 price. This was just some VERY rough napkin math... so critique and correct if you like. There are far more smarter people on this than I am.
You are looking at Tesla producing 500k electric cars a year. Assuming they sell every single one of them @ $35k that is 17.5 billion in revenue.
Add on another ~140k-200k Model S/X and that would be another 14 Billion - 20 Billion in revenue (assuming an ASP of 100k), and you are looking at easily 30B in revenues just from their 3 models.
If they achieve their 10% net margin (minus capex) that would be 3B in profit for 2020 or 24.59$ EPS (based on 122 million shares - this is where I am sure someone knows better than I what the future dilution will look like).
A small 10 P/E would be 240$ 2020 PT.
A more modest of 50 P/E would be 1200$ PT for 2020.
If it keeps up with it's insane 100+ P/E you are looking at a 2400$ PT (I don't think this is going to happen, but you never know...)
So in a super bear case, the stock basically flat-lines here down to F and GM's P/E levels, and you make nothing... (but lose little to nothing)
In a medium case, you stand to gain another $950 upside by 2020 or 158$ a year
If the stock keeps on the crazy path it is going now (I mean 2020 is NOT the end of this company) with a 100 P/E (I think it is actually at like 136 or something but meh...) that is a gain of $2150 or $358 per year growth.
I think I can agree with the Morgan Stanley PT or 320
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Yeah, I am sorry that it didn't work out for you, but at least you stuck with it and got even more back on top of it! Since I have already ordered the car, there is no turning back for me!
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So please tell me if I am missing something here on the 2020 price. This was just some VERY rough napkin math... so critique and correct if you like. There are far more smarter people on this than I am.
You are looking at Tesla producing 500k electric cars a year. Assuming they sell every single one of them @ $35k that is 17.5 billion in revenue.
Add on another ~140k-200k Model S/X and that would be another 14 Billion - 20 Billion in revenue (assuming an ASP of 100k), and you are looking at easily 30B in revenues just from their 3 models.
If they achieve their 10% net margin (minus capex) that would be 3B in profit for 2020 or 24.59$ EPS (based on 122 million shares - this is where I am sure someone knows better than I what the future dilution will look like).
A small 10 P/E would be 240$ 2020 PT.
A more modest of 50 P/E would be 1200$ PT for 2020.
If it keeps up with it's insane 100+ P/E you are looking at a 2400$ PT (I don't think this is going to happen, but you never know...)
So in a super bear case, the stock basically flat-lines here down to F and GM's P/E levels, and you make nothing... (but lose little to nothing)
In a medium case, you stand to gain another $950 upside by 2020 or 158$ a year
If the stock keeps on the crazy path it is going now (I mean 2020 is NOT the end of this company) with a 100 P/E (I think it is actually at like 136 or something but meh...) that is a gain of $2150 or $358 per year growth.
I think I can agree with the Morgan Stanley PT or 320
Very nice. Thank you for this. I think this is the direction we need to be going now since the bear argument is now just a drumbeat of "valuation too high". It all comes down to those three things, the future revenue, what PE you want to assign and what kind of a line to draw back to the present. The higher the stock goes now the more it flattens out for the next few years and the less attractive the return gets, until finally even bulls turn away and do something else.
I realize you're going conservative here, but that it assumed to be the base price (not counting tax incentives). In reality, that average sales price with options would likely be perhaps $10k higher?
if you plop that into your spreadsheet, how do those projections look?
Wouldn't the 500k also include S/X, and possibly Y? Although I think that is very conservative, I think the Gigafactory slide means total vehicle output of 500k.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Limiting factor might be the Fremont factory's car-building capacity at that point. Toyota/GM used to crank out 500,000 vehicles from this plant.
I think I can agree with the Morgan Stanley PT or 320
I think MS target assumed a doubling of car sales revenue, into the other Trillion $ market of backup stationary storage
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what took you so long to contribute? I try but my knowledge is limited compared to the big guns on here, and I am thankful for their contribution.
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