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Goodness with this slew of upgrades, I'm trying to figure out what to do... Originally was going to take a small break from TSLA, and invest in some solar for like a quarter, but all this news and discovering how so many are late to the party are making me rethink...
At what point in the short run would somebody leave. I don't even know where to set my stops now.
At what point in the short run would somebody leave. I don't even know where to set my stops now.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, I was trying to stay somewhat conservative with it, since it is a projection so far out into the future. But it is fair to say an ASP of 45k I think. That would be a 5 Billion increase in revenue (22.5B for Gen3 alone), and an additional 500 Million in projected profits (3.5B). If we use the projected dilution provided by Clprenz of 150M that would adjust the EPS to 23.33$ (yes that is lower than before, however that is probably a closer estimate of where we will be sitting).
I was basing it on the statements made be Elon regarding the factory ONLY supporting the Gen3 and them continuing to get batteries direct from Panasonic to supply the S/X. I am pushing aside any additional cars (like the new Roadster), since they have only been mentioned in passing and nothing concrete has been laid down yet on that.
Thanks for the input. It is clear to me that unless something catastrophic happens, we should be looking at quite a bit more upside.
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If it helps I have to duck out soon for the time being, I would try to hold out for the next week or so. Let the short coverings plus the factory news fully sink in and then jump ship. There are many on here who have been more right than wrong about this stock who have said 280 within the month (sleepyhead, I'm looking at you). I would imagine once the factory news runs it's course you have a little bit of time (without losing too much money) to let it ride out, since I am sure that once we get the Q1 news there will be a lot of haterade going around about them only delivering 6400 cars. Even though they have tried to hedge that on the CC, I wouldn't be surprised to see Q1 go flat. I would definately get back in during Q2 though, if you can since we should see a nice spike back up in deliveries!
You want to definitely be back in when they finally post GAAP profits. Trying to figure out when that will be is going to be tough, but I have a feeling when that hits the news, shorts will have nothing left to cling to, and the stock is going to jump again.
I believe lead-acid batteries are pretty cheap for small-scale back-up and I'm pretty sure many off-griddites use them. Life isn't that great, but better if kept cool. So taken together with flow and NaS, it's not a completely batty principle.
Really, I think the key issue is where the analyst thinks the battery price will be after the cost reduction, and the resulting demand generation. Personally, I think (thanks to CapOp's previous analysis on industry 18650 pricing) the result will be prices low enough to generate massive demand, as I think that Tesla's long-range-BEV model has price as the only expansion barrier.
chickensevil
Active Member
Hmmm, after a nice opening, it seems to be falling off today. Is this from the downward pressure on the market itself? Because the US markets are all falling down today as well. So far the price isn't too worrisome, sitting around 250... it can't make up its mind whether it wants to keep going down or go back up...
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For those looking for a another buy-in point, this might be the day to do it.
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For those looking for a another buy-in point, this might be the day to do it.
My gut feeling is that this is healthy consolidation and profit taking here...new buyers will be flowing in over the coming days/weeks but some larger institutions that have doubled their money in the past few months are probably take some chips off the table today now that Giga news is out (ie. Buy on the rumor and sell on the news phenomenon).
Well I doubled down on my weeklies (this week) when it was at $250. Either I'm a hero or a maroon
InTheShadows
Active Member
Well I doubled down on my weeklies (this week) when it was at $250. Either I'm a hero or a maroon
That makes two of us.
InTheShadows
Active Member
After this weeks gains, the amount I just threw back on the table for these weeklies is peanuts. (That is a fraction of a percent).
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Four. Sold yesterday, bought back in the options now with TSLA between $251-253 (but bought MarWk4 and Apr)
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I started too early, at 262 this morning, but then when the price fell i bought the short calls back on spreads that i had made earlier. Again- hero or maroon (what's a maroon?).
I believe there are a lot of TSLA shares exchanging hands for the past few days and today.
in other words...prior to last week's earnings report when we had 5-10mm shares traded per day, I would guess that 80% of that typical volume was from HFT algos/bots that don't really exchange shares, but just buy and sell (or sell and buy) within seconds to scalp a penny or few pennies.
over the past few days with 20mm+ volume each day, I would venture to guess that only 60% is HFT algos/bots and the rest is true trades of shares being exchanged by real buyers/sellers (and short sellers covering or getting back in).
will be interesting to see where the TSLA price shakes out when volume returns back to normal of 5-10mm shares per day again
(that is also when new shorts could come back in to take the place of those that covered over the past week)
Hehe maroon is a color but in this case just another way of saying moron I guess. I saw it somewhere and thought it sounded fun and less explicit
I'm surprised by the market reaction to the gigafactory. It's addressing one of the major risks constantly raised about Tesla's long term potential and the market has given it a big yawn. Granted, we all knew it was upcoming, but the concrete details seemed quite a bit better than expected. Maybe it's just taking time.
Goldman Sachs and BofA ML have a lot of clients and are influential. Without their bearish reports I think we would be higher.
btw, would love to read the GS and BofA ML reports...
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