Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

Actually Tesla investor relations confirmed that there wasn't going to be a gigafactory conference call and that they did the blog post and pdf instead.

My guess on that would be, they are still not quite ready yet to actually answer people's questions on the subject since they still need to finalize things. Hopefully they will be ready for the Q/A when we get to the next CC since that is going to likely be the big things people are going to be pressing for at this point. Deliveries are going to be down (as expected), and Model X news will likely still be a ways off, so I anticipate tons of request for information on the factory since they should have finalized their partners by that point (may-ish timeframe).

 

[InTheShadows]

Deliveries are going to be down (as expected),

Why do you say deliveries are going to be down?

 

[AlMc]

Why do you say deliveries are going to be down?

Elon did say that with most recent ER guidance. Reason: They will have many cars in transit. It appears they are going to reduce the practice of trying to get all production in a quarter delivered by the end of the quarter. Will even out over time but he did guide for less deliveries but not less production.

 

[chickensevil]

Elon did say that with most recent ER guidance. Reason: They will have many cars in transit. It appears they are going to reduce the practice of trying to get all production in a quarter delivered by the end of the quarter. Will even out over time but he did guide for less deliveries but not less production.

Yeah, I just mention it, because you know people are going to take that as some sign that things are wavering in the company... About how they are making more cars than they sell, and this is the end of the demand cap. Shorts had already picked up on this line of thinking back right after the ER.

Honestly this isn't the first time they have mentioned that they don't count cars in transit. I assume there are always a handful of cars in transit that don't get counted, this is just the first time it has impacted the delivery number growth, so they were trying to hedge against people getting upset by the delivery number going down. We will see how well it plays out in the stock price when Q1 gets released... Worst case scenario, it presents a new buying opportunity

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Also along those line, I would imagine that a decent chunk of the 6900 deliveries was loaner cars, which also over-inflated their numbers for Q4. It would not at all surprise me if they sold 900 or so cars strictly from that.

 

[Papafox]

Also along those line, I would imagine that a decent chunk of the 6900 deliveries was loaner cars, which also over-inflated their numbers for Q4. It would not at all surprise me if they sold 900 or so cars strictly from that.

I count about 60 stores in the U.S. and Canada. Obviously, some cars would go to service centers as loaners, too, but 900 is just way too high a number. Here in Hawaii, the service center currently has no loaners. Every time we get new loaners Tesla is able to sell them very quickly. What leads you to believe that the service centers became jam-packed with loaners in Q4, and are these loaners even counted as deliveries? I have seen games played in previous quarters in which the service center is working like mad the week before the quarter ends, getting the deliveries prepped and out the door before the final day. I believe this type of coordinated deliveries at the last moment is the type of thing that Elon doesn't want to conduct any more. That said, I think it will be crucial during the Q1 CC to properly explain why the deliveries are down a bit while production continues to ramp up. There is room for the shorts to run with this info if Tesla does not explain completely.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yeah, I just mention it, because you know people are going to take that as some sign that things are wavering in the company... About how they are making more cars than they sell, and this is the end of the demand cap. Shorts had already picked up on this line of thinking back right after the ER.

Honestly this isn't the first time they have mentioned that they don't count cars in transit. I assume there are always a handful of cars in transit that don't get counted, this is just the first time it has impacted the delivery number growth, so they were trying to hedge against people getting upset by the delivery number going down. We will see how well it plays out in the stock price when Q1 gets released... Worst case scenario, it presents a new buying opportunity

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Also along those line, I would imagine that a decent chunk of the 6900 deliveries was loaner cars, which also over-inflated their numbers for Q4. It would not at all surprise me if they sold 900 or so cars strictly from that.

sorry you are wrong the 3rd qtr last year had 1000 cars in transit to europe that were produced but money not yet counted

someone else here claimed that there were a 1000 loaners that countrd in the 6900 sold, wrong also loaners dont count as sold either

 

[Papafox]

Chickenlittle, I agree that misinterpretation of Q1 data could present a buying opportunity if it is not overshadowed by larger issues. Rising production levels and progress with the gigafactory may be the issue that turns Q1 into a positive quarter, all the same. The announcement of an impressive cars-produced-per-week number could more than cancel out a temporary dip in deliveries as long as the reason for the dip is properly explained. Time will tell.I think I'm missing your point. The 6900 cars in Q4 was deliveries, as I understand it, and deliveries to stores as loaners shouldn't count as "deliveries" since they're not counting as "sold" either. Maybe we need a clarification from a 3rd party.

 

[Ugliest1]

...The 6900 cars in Q4 was deliveries, as I understand it, and deliveries to stores as loaners shouldn't count as "deliveries" since they're not counting as "sold" either...

If memory serves, Nov/Dec 2013 was also the time that many people requiring service were finding that the service centre had no inventory cars to give them and were being sent to Enterprise. Many inventory cars were being sold, finally resulting in mid-January Tesla changing their policy so that cars could not be sold until they had been in inventory (i.e., "on the lot") for at least 90 days. So, I interpreted Chickenlittle's (and Chickensevil's) comment as being the loaners etc that were actually being sold to customers, thus at that point being counted as deliveries.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm getting a loaner next week, they only have s60's for loaners at my service center. I needed an 85 to get home when I went in last week and they told me they do not have any 85 loaners. Only 60's. This is making me think that the 60's they have are trade ins. IIRC all their loaners were to be p85+ cars.

 

[Papafox]

If memory serves, Nov/Dec 2013 was also the time that many people requiring service were finding that the service centre had no inventory cars to give them and were being sent to Enterprise. Many inventory cars were being sold, finally resulting in mid-January Tesla changing their policy so that cars could not be sold until they had been in inventory (i.e., "on the lot") for at least 90 days. So, I interpreted Chickenlittle's (and Chickensevil's) comment as being the loaners etc that were actually being sold to customers, thus at that point being counted as deliveries.

Ugliest1, Thanks for the clarification. I too was confused by a deluge of chicken names. If chickensevil was referring to loaners that had been sold in the 4th quarter but won't be sold in a similar manner in the 1st quarter, then I understand his point.

 

[AlMc]

Ugliest1, Thanks for the clarification. I too was confused by a deluge of chicken names. If chickensevil was referring to loaners that had been sold in the 4th quarter but won't be sold in a similar manner in the 1st quarter, then I understand his point.

That is how I understood it. However, wouldn't it be nice for Elon to set expectations low.......then deliver high despite cars in transit (ie really ramp production)

 

[mitch672]

I'm getting a loaner next week, they only have s60's for loaners at my service center. I needed an 85 to get home when I went in last week and they told me they do not have any 85 loaners. Only 60's. This is making me think that the 60's they have are trade ins. IIRC all their loaners were to be p85+ cars.

Watertown told me they are only getting 60KW models now for loaners, hoping to curtail the quick sales of the loaner fleet, but it isn't working, they are still selling them very quickly. They offered me an Enterprise rent a car on Saturday, but I already have an old gas burner at home, so just took a ride home instead. Have to watch the bottom line and avoid any unneeded expenses as a shareholder, it all goes to the bottom line

 

[AlMc]

Agree with sleepy. In fact I'll punch a little further in that I believe there will be a force majeur over '15 and '16 that will transform both EV(TSLA) and Solar into predetermined conclusions

Kenliles and Sleepy.....:wink:

 

[pz1975]

I'm hoping Elon will release his promised response soon to the Bloomberg article claiming that graphite is a major polluter in China with specific mention of Tesla as a major culprit. I think he had said it would come out this weekend.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Watertown told me they are only getting 60KW models now for loaners, hoping to curtail the quick sales of the loaner fleet, but it isn't working, they are still selling them very quickly.

I've been to Houston a few weeks ago - stayed for 2 weeks. Like other people go to church, I visit the Tesla gallery every time I'm there. :tongue:
I've been twice during my stay and saw a different car on my second visit, so I asked. (When I was last there in November, the S on the floor had a signage saying it has been sold 2 days before, so I've been curious ever since).

They told me it is not only loaners they keep running out of, also showroom cars and that they barely have them for a few weeks before they are sold. They explained, that while they cannot sell cars in Texas, all the showroom cars nation wide are up for sale online, like the loaners, so even people out of state may odere that particular car in their gallery.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well as far as I know Tesla is also selling their showroom cars end of quarter now here in EU. I know a number of people who've gotten a deal with instant car delivery from a showroom. So I think they to some extent still do it, they're trying to reduce it somewhat, but the system's in place strongly so expect actually a strong March sale rate and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Q1 guidance turns out to be far too low.

Edit: ah, I think I didn't account for the new markets that are opening in Q2. Tesla is probably pipelining the RH drive cars in the thousands and those start selling in April so they would have to be in transit at end of Q1 and therefore production will be far above sales because of the pipeline to various places like UK, Japan, HK and China. Those wouldn't be part of the showroom sales and would be new pipelines that got filled in Q1 and didn't have spillover from prior quarters pipeline.

 

[Norse]

Baird raises target from $245 to $275. Rating "Outperform"

So annoying that I was 30 seconds to late in buying weekly calls on Friday.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well I think I still have some weekly calls that are deep in the red :/ Also some April ones, also in the red.

 

[Norse]

Well I think I still have some weekly calls that are deep in the red :/ Also some April ones, also in the red.

I only have two weekly, but then again I am not sure how big impact this upgrade will have. We should get some more info on it.

 

[jkliu47]

TSLA up 2% AH (235.60)