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NigelM
Recovering Member
We got the point first time around. Repetitive posts are not appreciated.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Moderator's Note: An excellent discussion about the core positives of Tesla was moved to Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
MartinAustin
Active Member
Trying to theorise why TSLA is falling... TSLA is very much news-driven, and while there are lots of investors holding it that are willing to ride it upwards, there are a lot of conservative investors whose hunch says take profits. A large number of the buyers of TSLA pick it up because there has been some awesome news circulating. Right now we are in the aftermath of the gigafactory annnouncements, and Tesla the company are going to be very quiet while they negotiate with the states they have mentioned (or rather IMO, hold Nevada over a barrel to get a better deal, while they pretend they're interested in New Mexico and Arizona). It won't be like this time last year when Elon tweeted everything a day or two before the company went to mention it. (Tesla was only a $4billion company back then... lots more at stake now)
There really isn't any news, and that is what brings new buyers in at an accelerated rate. The NHTSA, re-launch of Model X and gigafactory news could be a while away... China+UK deliveries are coming up I guess... nothing gigantic is really in the short-term horizon though. By the time we have gotten any new news out of those areas, the next earnings release may be imminent.
The New Jersey thing I think is having no net effect - buyers on the news are cancelling out sellers who are afraid of doom (the latter being ridiculous).
SO I'm not worried that it is falling. 2014 is going to be an awesome year for Tesla - and TSLA.
There really isn't any news, and that is what brings new buyers in at an accelerated rate. The NHTSA, re-launch of Model X and gigafactory news could be a while away... China+UK deliveries are coming up I guess... nothing gigantic is really in the short-term horizon though. By the time we have gotten any new news out of those areas, the next earnings release may be imminent.
The New Jersey thing I think is having no net effect - buyers on the news are cancelling out sellers who are afraid of doom (the latter being ridiculous).
SO I'm not worried that it is falling. 2014 is going to be an awesome year for Tesla - and TSLA.
Today was what is called a "risk-off," in which investors across the board flee to perceived safe havens like cash, treasuries and commodities (I like to track GLD and TIPS), when economic turmoil is expected. It was almost entirely a macroeconomic day, i.e. forces that affect the whole market moved TSLA, not forces that affect TSLA alone. Today happened to be about about Chinese economic data and the possibly deteriorating situation in the Ukraine.
It is useful if you are wondering why a particular stock moves on a day with seemingly little stock-specific news to compare that stock's trendline with other stocks. If the trendlines match closely, then you are seeing macroeconomic forces at work on the whole market, or perhaps a whole sector within the market. Plot NASDAQ, plot growth stocks, plot tech/auto stocks, plot anything you want against TSLA and you begin to see patterns. Tesla is also considered a growth stock and at times a momentum stock, so more minor movements in the market can get magnified, both up and down, which is why TSLA can move in a 2:1 ratio or more, up or down with the NASDAQ on a percentage level, for example.
I can't recommend highly enough taking 5-10 minutes every day to read economic news via the source of your choice, and begin to learn how economic news and data (including Economic Indicators) affect stocks in the public markets. I use a variety of sources, but I like Yahoo's free Briefing.com updates if pressed for time.
Happy trading, folks.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Perhaps it's good to know how soon tesla will go to zero in this constantly changing environment. If it was zero, I could buy the entire company then and make them put an internal combustion engine in their frunk, extending the range and fixing the problem with these silly cars!
That is almost certainly true. In addition to fallout from the overall market (S&P 500 -1.2%, DJIA -1.4%, Nasdaq -1.5%), today we again had General Motors (GM -2.2%) leading Ford (F -1.4%) and Tesla Motors (TSLA -1.5%) downward. The latter two were more in line with the overall market. However, GM has a serious recall problem following a dozen related deaths (I received my official notice from GM today.) Congress is concerned that the NHTSA may have been derelict in its oversight duty.
I fully expect that the relatively minor concern with Model S batteries to result in an all-clear from the NHTSA. Nevertheless, that may be delayed until the GM fiasco is out of the news.
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Bloomberg alarmism about graphite:
Graphite Might Be the Source of Tesla’s Next Headache
Denied by Elon:
Twitter / elonmusk: @TeamAizek Not true. The amount ...
Graphite Might Be the Source of Tesla’s Next Headache
Denied by Elon:
Twitter / elonmusk: @TeamAizek Not true. The amount ...
indeed Bunky. I also find it a bit suspicious, that the same single Bloomberg article is repeated 3 times over several hours in the news feed of Yahoo's quote for TSLA, and suspicious that the article does not mention that the Chinese government itself is pushing hard for more EVs to protect the environment in China.
Not surprisingly Bloomberg's Cory Johnson came on Bloomberg TV to talk about it. for context, some Cory's past reporting on Tesla,
Tesla's Slow Lane: Selling Another $147M in Stock: Video - Bloomberg
follow up:
@Peter, awesome catch... mined in Japan!
This feels exactly like the decline from the high in September. A long slow steady decline off the high. Tons of enthusiasm and people saying at every off day that it's a buying opportunity. That lasted for a couple months before it started going back up steadily.
2014 guidance has been given, the ER is over, the gigafactory reveal is over (and sort of anticlimatic). Everything is in a holding pattern.
2014 guidance has been given, the ER is over, the gigafactory reveal is over (and sort of anticlimatic). Everything is in a holding pattern.
i couldn't agree more. The only thing causing me to hesitate in going full hedge is the sky high short interest. Otherwise, I'm becoming pretty fearful of some greed I've seen on this board.
That should get us to the Supreme Court in the fast lane. Dealerships are digging their own grave.
Response to "Graphite"
(This post may be more appropriate in some other thread. Fine by me).
I'm going to go out on a rather small limb here, and suggest that neither the Bloomberg article NOR Mr Musk is correct wrt the graphite brouhaha.
My mining background does not include graphite/plumbago specifically, but I know something about the material generally.
China does produce a goodly amount of the world's graphite. Of the three types of primary sources, almost all Chinese graphite occurs as a difficult-to-work fine-grained (powdery) substance and, indeed, it is easy to envision its processing as being conducive to air pollution (as an aside, probably less than an asterisk in China's air pollution problems, but that's not the issue here).
Other sources of graphite - Brazilian, for example - mine occurrences of lump or flake graphite; the processing of which is a far, far less dusty process than working the powdered form. In the United States and in Japan, almost all graphite is formed from coke, a waste product from a varieties of smelting activities. So if Mr Musk is correct in citing Japan as its graphite source, it's very likely not to have been mined, but is synthetic graphite.
Now, China does produce most of the world's graphite - about two-thirds, or about ten times what the US now manufactures. Not all that graphite goes into your "lead" pencil - most assuredly, some goes into batteries. It's not a stretch to conjecture that if a battery is made in China, it's using Chinese graphite. But if the battery is Japanese - synthetic graphite is a likely component (thus my suggestion that Mr Musk may be wrong).
Lastly, and again as an aside, effectively all graphite began its cycle in the same way oil and coal did - as organic carbon (those famous "dinosaurs", donchaknow?
). Coal, subjected to intense pressures and temperatures, has its carbon reduced to graphite. If there were some way for a coal bed to be subducted to ridiculous depths in the earth - very unlikely - then not graphite, but diamond, might be the result. But now I really digress.
On edit: It is difficult - a euphemism for "impossible" - for any even moderately complex manufacturing process to ensure unequivocally that every last one of its materials, labor, and capital inputs are "green"/"socially acceptable"/"good". It doesn't take but a moment's thought to realize that your criteria differ from my criteria and are antithetical to the criteria of that guy over there. HOWEVER, one can set one's own criteria and attempt to meet them. The issue on the table here suggests that TMInc. may wish to ensure that the graphite used to create the anodes in its battery Gigafactory be definitively sourced from synthetic graphite (and, for chauvinistic sentiments, US or possibly Japanese-derived syn-graphite...but I'm not going to go there any more than that one line).
(This post may be more appropriate in some other thread. Fine by me).
I'm going to go out on a rather small limb here, and suggest that neither the Bloomberg article NOR Mr Musk is correct wrt the graphite brouhaha.
My mining background does not include graphite/plumbago specifically, but I know something about the material generally.
China does produce a goodly amount of the world's graphite. Of the three types of primary sources, almost all Chinese graphite occurs as a difficult-to-work fine-grained (powdery) substance and, indeed, it is easy to envision its processing as being conducive to air pollution (as an aside, probably less than an asterisk in China's air pollution problems, but that's not the issue here).
Other sources of graphite - Brazilian, for example - mine occurrences of lump or flake graphite; the processing of which is a far, far less dusty process than working the powdered form. In the United States and in Japan, almost all graphite is formed from coke, a waste product from a varieties of smelting activities. So if Mr Musk is correct in citing Japan as its graphite source, it's very likely not to have been mined, but is synthetic graphite.
Now, China does produce most of the world's graphite - about two-thirds, or about ten times what the US now manufactures. Not all that graphite goes into your "lead" pencil - most assuredly, some goes into batteries. It's not a stretch to conjecture that if a battery is made in China, it's using Chinese graphite. But if the battery is Japanese - synthetic graphite is a likely component (thus my suggestion that Mr Musk may be wrong).
Lastly, and again as an aside, effectively all graphite began its cycle in the same way oil and coal did - as organic carbon (those famous "dinosaurs", donchaknow?
). Coal, subjected to intense pressures and temperatures, has its carbon reduced to graphite. If there were some way for a coal bed to be subducted to ridiculous depths in the earth - very unlikely - then not graphite, but diamond, might be the result. But now I really digress.On edit: It is difficult - a euphemism for "impossible" - for any even moderately complex manufacturing process to ensure unequivocally that every last one of its materials, labor, and capital inputs are "green"/"socially acceptable"/"good". It doesn't take but a moment's thought to realize that your criteria differ from my criteria and are antithetical to the criteria of that guy over there. HOWEVER, one can set one's own criteria and attempt to meet them. The issue on the table here suggests that TMInc. may wish to ensure that the graphite used to create the anodes in its battery Gigafactory be definitively sourced from synthetic graphite (and, for chauvinistic sentiments, US or possibly Japanese-derived syn-graphite...but I'm not going to go there any more than that one line).
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