Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[anticitizen13.7]

No I think Goldman is still being conservative, they are saying too much is CURRENTLY priced in. Truthfully, if everything was fairly priced, the stock market would be the bond market. There's fair value and then then the dimension of buyers and sellers. Right now the real question is how many shorts are there that are really just wanting blood for what they lost or have gotten too emotional-- answer is way too many. The psychological aspect is too great. They will just continue to pile in.

What I thought is that even if their PT is lower than the current price or other analyst predictions, at least they are sort of in the same ballpark now. I think I remember their targets being much lower in the recent past.

Many people, perhaps even a majority of investors, do not yet seem to grasp the significance of what Tesla has accomplished, so I agree that many shorts will try to hold their ground.

that's an excellent ?. my own view is they will continue until GenIII is a given, Giga-Factory no longer in question, which will correlate to SC network completion- thus I see the bulk of shorts exiting next year throughout the year. I believe 2015 will be a very transformational year for TSLA investing

Interesting take. I hope you are correct, although I can see some people denying the obvious through 2015. Best case is that by end of 2015, the Supercharger North America network is complete, and Model S and X are shipping in the high tens of thousands annually around the world. But that's still low volume for a car manufacturer. Some people will point to this and the high price and say BEVs are still niche confined.

G3/Model E looks like it will hit the street around 2017-2018. If that car starts picking off Accord, Camry, and compact-SUV buyers I think only then will the naysayers admit they bet wrong. If 2015 doesn't result in mass short exits, I expect a rocket upward trajectory late this decade if Tesla cars become as iconic as iPhone.

 

[TSLAopt]

At what point do the shorts have nowhere to hide as far as having some analyst reports on their side?

Goldman was skeptical and kept a low price target for a long time… and now they look convinced that TSLA is worth a high price. Is Bank of America the last major holdout?

Great question...Time will tell....there will be a lot of people wanting TSLA to fail for a long time...Kenliles could be right with 2015 however being the turning point to get shorts off our back for good...I think there will at least be mini short squeezes until that time happens...but with mini short squeezes comes volatility of new shorts then piling back in at the next price point from the next mini short squeeze. Let's say it causes the stock to go up to 300 then that stock could easily come right back down to 250 to consolidate combined with new shorts that piled in at 300 driving the price down (or existing short doubling down at 300ish)....

to me TSLA seems like very easy money for the long term...short term is very hard to time ups and downs though.

 

[DaveT]

Just posted a summary and my thoughts on Goldman Sachs report from today.
Today the shorts have lost a friend named GS - 3/18/14

 

[Monsoon]

G3/Model E looks like it will hit the street around 2017-2018. If that car starts picking off Accord, Camry, and compact-SUV buyers I think only then will the naysayers admit they bet wrong.

In my experience, most naysayers never admit they were wrong. They more often re-frame their opposition, or otherwise rationalize their position, regardless of the facts.

"Yeah, Tesla sold a lot of cars, but it wasn't fair," or some such nonsense.

 

[kenliles]

G3/Model E looks like it will hit the street around 2017-2018.

Very true; Keep in mind though of the strong indications Tesla will unveil ModE at the Jan15 Auto show or if not, certainly sometime in 2015. That physical unveiling will put extreme pressure on shorts' non-existence thesis.
At that point in time, their denial suddenly becomes the virtual side of the argument. Combined with Giga-Factory models and site plans, ModS-X, China, SC network complete- the virtual arguments against so much physical contrarian makes 'short' work of the bull case (sorry for the punn-fun)

 

[FANGO]

Very true; Keep in mind though of the strong indications Tesla will unveil ModE at the Jan15 Auto show or if not, certainly sometime in 2015. That physical unveiling will put extreme pressure on shorts' non-existence thesis.
At that point in time, their denial suddenly becomes the virtual side of the argument. Combined with Giga-Factory models and site plans, ModS-X, China, SC network complete- the virtual arguments against so much physical contrarian makes 'short' work of the bull case (sorry for the punn-fun)

I wouldn't say strong indication. Franz was quoted as saying it once, and that was immediately backtracked on. People went out and reported that the car would be out in 2015, which of course we all know it won't, but then figured that it would at least be shown at the auto show, but that wasn't really ever officially stated either. It was just an offhand remark by Franz.

I think it's possible, but I wouldn't say it's been strongly indicated.

 

[Julian Cox]

I wouldn't say strong indication. Franz was quoted as saying it once, and that was immediately backtracked on. People went out and reported that the car would be out in 2015, which of course we all know it won't, but then figured that it would at least be shown at the auto show, but that wasn't really ever officially stated either. It was just an offhand remark by Franz.

I think it's possible, but I wouldn't say it's been strongly indicated.

By way of cross reference:

2015 unveiling of Gen III also at least vaguely indicated by VP of Business development recently in this video: Diarmuid OConnell VP buss. Dev. Tesla on everything from Roadster to G3 - YouTube

Around minute 18 - "hopefully something to show for it the year after next".

Interview taken 2013 year after next in that context 2015.

 

[FluxCap]

FYI, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will begin speaking in one minute. CNBC has a livestream link from their home page if anyone is interested.

 

[SteveG3]

I wouldn't say strong indication. Franz was quoted as saying it once, and that was immediately backtracked on. People went out and reported that the car would be out in 2015, which of course we all know it won't, but then figured that it would at least be shown at the auto show, but that wasn't really ever officially stated either. It was just an offhand remark by Franz.

I think it's possible, but I wouldn't say it's been strongly indicated.

I agree with Fango on this. what's more, now that setting the Model X out into the world has been pushed out a few months and the X buildup/event will overlap that Detroit Auto show in January 2015 ( first deliveries probably about Janurary, volume deliveries probably about March/April), I think Tesla will want maximum impact for the Model X intro, and delay Gen III prototype reveal at least 6 months. they can try for a big Model X splash to get the public excited followed a few months later by a Gen III prototype to respond to the "yeah, what they make is great, but when will they have something I can afford" questions.

 

[Cattledog]

I agree with Fango on this. what's more, now that setting the Model X out into the world has been pushed out a few months and the X buildup/event will overlap that Detroit Auto show in January 2015 ( first deliveries probably about Janurary, volume deliveries probably about March/April), I think Tesla will want maximum impact for the Model X intro, and delay Gen III prototype reveal at least 6 months. they can try for a big Model X splash to get the public excited followed a few months later by a Gen III prototype to respond to the "yeah, what they make is great, but when will they have something I can afford" questions.

I imagine a Model X production reveal in mid 2014 (3-6 months from now), Model E alpha reveal 12-18 months later (mid 2015 to Feb 2016), and hope Tesla takes $1,000 reservations for Model E and we see them numbering 50,000-100,000 before release in mid-2017. Hoping.

 

[SteveG3]

I imagine a Model X production reveal in mid 2014 (3-6 months from now), Model E alpha reveal 12-18 months later (mid 2015 to Feb 2016), and hope Tesla takes $1,000 reservations for Model E and we see them numbering 50,000-100,000 before release in mid-2017. Hoping.

Cattledog, timeframe sounds right to me. Gen III reservations... I'd add a zero on those numbers

well, 300,000-500,000 anyway. look at all the people who've waited ~3 years from Model S reservation date. I think it will take Tesla 3-4 years from first Gen III delivery, to delivery #500,000.

 

[MartinAustin]

Today's trading volume was pretty light... 5million shares. Hopefully we can see the fall in the stock price reversed tomorrow.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well today TSLA pretty much tracked Nasdaq. The big dip was mostly FED.

 

[justthateasy]

Here's my latest chart.

TSLA appears to be staying in the current channel and is very much oversold. Volume was very light today and definitely does not support today's drop due to the FED news. In fact, I was expecting a reversal well above 240 today so we'll see if that happens in the coming days instead.

 

[mershaw2001]

Here's my latest chart.

TSLA appears to be staying in the current channel and is very much oversold. Volume was very light today and definitely does not support today's drop due to the FED news. In fact, I was expecting a reversal well above 240 today so we'll see if that happens in the coming days instead.


View attachment 45371

How do you get that it's oversold? What metric? I see that it is at the bottom of the channel you have drawn, but apart from an eyeball viewing that it's near the bottom of that channel an RSI (14) reading shows it somewhere in the 50 range, far away from 30 (oversold) and 70 (overbought). I can't make out the graph at the bottom of your chart. Are you using an rsi 7 day?

 

[InTheShadows]

I believe it is the stochrsi which is typically considered an oversold overbought indicator.

 

[mershaw2001]

I believe it is the stochrsi which is typically considered an oversold overbought indicator.

After watching a little on the stochrsi,
StochRSI indicator - YouTube
This video would lead me to believe that if the stochrsi is in the region below that threshold, "you should not be in the stock". It's not an oversold indicator. If it was the RSI, I would agree that it's an oversold region, but not if its an stochrsi.

edit--------
I'll take back that comment, i found the following:

When using Stoch RSI in technical analysis, a trader should be careful. By adding the Stochastic calculation to RSI, speed is greatly increased. This can generate many more signals and therefore more bad signals as well as the good ones. Stoch RSI needs to be combined with additional tools or indicators in order to be at its most effective. Using trend lines or basic chart pattern analysis can help to identify major, underlying trends and increase the Stoch RSI's accuracy. Using Stoch RSI to make trades that go against the underlying trend is a dangerous proposition.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Well today TSLA pretty much tracked Nasdaq. The big dip was mostly FED.

I don't have a great deal of expertise in monetary policy, but I don't see why investors would freak out about a gradual slowdown in government bond purchases, or a gradual increase in interest rates. I suspect that the markets will bounce back, but irrationality may rule the week.

 

[Causalien]

After watching a little on the stochrsi,
StochRSI indicator - YouTube
This video would lead me to believe that if the stochrsi is in the region below that threshold, "you should not be in the stock". It's not an oversold indicator. If it was the RSI, I would agree that it's an oversold region, but not if its an stochrsi.

edit--------
I'll take back that comment, i found the following:

When using Stoch RSI in technical analysis, a trader should be careful. By adding the Stochastic calculation to RSI, speed is greatly increased. This can generate many more signals and therefore more bad signals as well as the good ones. Stoch RSI needs to be combined with additional tools or indicators in order to be at its most effective. Using trend lines or basic chart pattern analysis can help to identify major, underlying trends and increase the Stoch RSI's accuracy. Using Stoch RSI to make trades that go against the underlying trend is a dangerous proposition.

Be careful about using Stoch without knowing when to use it. Anything stoch related is only useful in a trending channel as it has a higher probability of being accurate in a trending channel.

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't have a great deal of expertise in monetary policy, but I don't see why investors would freak out about a gradual slowdown in government bond purchases, or a gradual increase in interest rates. I suspect that the markets will bounce back, but irrationality may rule the week.

I think it is because Yellen said that interest rates may rise around six months from now, which is a lot sooner than the market expected.