I agree with the other sentiments posted. I have posted rebuttals on SA regarding tesla and I guess they were too harsh as I have been asked not to post in the 'reply' section anymore.
I actually am proud of that!:wink:
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I agree with the other sentiments posted. I have posted rebuttals on SA regarding tesla and I guess they were too harsh as I have been asked not to post in the 'reply' section anymore.
I actually am proud of that!:wink:
Elon has been surprisingly quiet this week, and we still haven't seen the blog post about the Bloomberg article. We also haven't heard any information about Tesla's partners for Gigafactory, data about demand for the Model S in China, or confirmation that the Model X is sold out through late 2015. We still haven't seen the final version of the Model X. Not to mention, we still haven't heard anything from the NHTSA. I think some big news will
be released soon.
be released soon.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
He's made his way into my John Petersen bucket (which means I don't click on his articles at all). Better than JP - I didn't name the bucket after him. That's the discount factor I apply to his articles.
On the topic of continuing to test one's investment hypothesis, my expectation is that I'll get a higher signal reading people that are unknown to me. If something starts to develop that would change my investment thesis, it'll show up in a variety of places, not in just one. I'm also investing under the belief today that I'll be holding for at least 5 years, and still waiting for a signal that I should be thinking differently.
The primary idea I'm looking for is somebody that clearly understands the paradigm shift that comes with driving electric AND they have a bear case AND it's a long term (5+ years) view of how Tesla is plateauing, stagnating, or going backwards. I ignore bulls and bears alike that demonstrate they don't understand the paradigm shift (fundamental to my analysis of the company), and I ignore the quarter to quarter noise (though it does make for good entertainment), so that's your grain of salt if you're trading weekly options
I believe the Norway numbers between last month and this month should provide some level of catalyst, especially as some loud mouthed bears are getting comfortable with their peaked delivery/demand thesis. However, I certainly hope that Tesla provide more fundamental excitement including a re-ramp of Supercharger rollouts, firmware 6.0 features, and past due items (14-50 adapter fix, CHAdeMO adapter, etc.) to get the current base and prospective customers all juiced up. A Model X final reveal would be nice, but I'm thinking that is further off.
chickensevil
Active Member
So no one has touched on the 100 cars just sitting in Germany. I understand the idea of having orphaned cars, but 100 of them? And to have them orphaned between the time of production complete and actually receiving the car (which for them I believe is a 2 month window) is rather small, compared to the already 3 month wait you are putting in.
Now I don't think that it is at all a sign of demand being dropped, but where did these cars come from... Also, why are they all 0 miles (I didn't even think the cars came with 0 miles since I thought they put about 15-30 on them at the factory, and then as they are in transit tends to put a few miles on them right?)
These are certainly weird cases...
Now I don't think that it is at all a sign of demand being dropped, but where did these cars come from... Also, why are they all 0 miles (I didn't even think the cars came with 0 miles since I thought they put about 15-30 on them at the factory, and then as they are in transit tends to put a few miles on them right?)
These are certainly weird cases...
Goodness, all these ridiculous articles like Musk wanting to keep profits to himself and the demand dropping because there's 100 Model S' in stock in Germany is telling me one thing: we are going to make money off hard heads refusing to look at the big picture or just flat out not doing their DD.
I think it's clear Elon, isn't driven by profits in the direct to sales model, so I won't even go over it here. The 100 Model S' while interesting is such a silly way to draw an assumption. I have a theory and correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there an Autobahn package in the works? For all we know it could be getting fine tuned and awaiting adjustments before shipping to customers or going to be offered. Or it could simply be some missing part or just awaiting final inspection.
I think it's clear Elon, isn't driven by profits in the direct to sales model, so I won't even go over it here. The 100 Model S' while interesting is such a silly way to draw an assumption. I have a theory and correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there an Autobahn package in the works? For all we know it could be getting fine tuned and awaiting adjustments before shipping to customers or going to be offered. Or it could simply be some missing part or just awaiting final inspection.
I live in a blind street area in Norway, and in my neighborhood there are 46 houses, and so far I have seen 4 different colored Tesla Model S, there might be several in some colors. All of the people living here could afford a Tesla Model S, so I am quite interested to see the development in numbers of cars. I will expect every second house to have one in a year or two
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There are some oddities in that list of 100 cars. I think the "0" miles thing is just a place holder for one, not an actual representation of the mileage, since I thought the cars were assembled and tested in the US, then the packs removed for shipping. I suppose they could reset the odometer since the car isn't officially "built" yet? Also one poster claimed the cars were extra US cars that were sent to Europe, except Euro spec cars have some different components. Maybe they are building a loaner fleet but willing to let some go early.
chickensevil
Active Member
No there was a link somewhere in there with all the cars, their prices, and that they were sitting a 0KM. They were all clearly new cars, for sale... As opposed to waiting for delivery/already sold. However I am neither familiar enough with the price markups for Europe nor am I great at the price conversions to Euros to tell if they were being discounted or sold at full "new" price value.
again, I want it to be clear, I personally do not think this has any correlation to demand (neither demand overall or even the German/EU demand). However, it is a strange anomaly, and it would be nice to figure out the real reason for why they are sitting there and where they came from. If for no other reason, than to stick it back into the shorts faces. But also, if for some reason there is some real substance to this, as investors it would be nice to know what is happening so you can better make decisions. This wasn't even brought up by Paulo, and I saw it mentioned somewhere else before it ever hit SA (comments or otherwise) so I think it is something worth looking in to, since this could be a potential change in how Tesla operates.
considering here in the US we are still getting reports of Tesla letting go of both their loaner inventory and their floor models and test drive cars (including 60kw cars) it cannot be a demand issue that even touches on US sales.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Now the link is only showing 13 cars, and a few of them have some miles on them. http://haendler.autoscout24.de/tesl...418&ustate=U,N,A&sort=price&results=40&page=1
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
In fact, I haven't seen any evidence yet that there were ever more than 13 cars listed. The links at the bottom suggest 4 pages of 20 items each, but there are only the 13 repeated 4 times.
Paulo, however, now has a new article screaming "100 cars for sale in Germany".
I don't get it, those are from a reseller. What does that have to do with demand? It just shows that Germans don't like buying from dealers, either.
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As far as Paulo, he wrote "Time to Leave Tesla" on May 7, 2013.
When the stock was at $57.10, he had just made a "massive 490% gain" in an options trade. Based on his statement that NUMMI was "designed for 20,000 vehicles/year", he concluded:
"I now believe chances are that the stock will stagnate or reverse part of the gains. The valuation is demanding at this point, most of the catalysts have already produced their effects, and growth has a strong chance of plateauing for at least one year, due both to production constraints and ultimately demand for the Model S."
Looks like a steady stream of FUD-titled articles since then. Probably getting more bitter as time goes on and he realizes how much money he is missing out on.
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As far as Paulo, he wrote "Time to Leave Tesla" on May 7, 2013.
When the stock was at $57.10, he had just made a "massive 490% gain" in an options trade. Based on his statement that NUMMI was "designed for 20,000 vehicles/year", he concluded:
"I now believe chances are that the stock will stagnate or reverse part of the gains. The valuation is demanding at this point, most of the catalysts have already produced their effects, and growth has a strong chance of plateauing for at least one year, due both to production constraints and ultimately demand for the Model S."
Looks like a steady stream of FUD-titled articles since then. Probably getting more bitter as time goes on and he realizes how much money he is missing out on.
I find the website with car listings a bit fishy... Tesla does not list their inventory cars for sale on a website in the US (aside from a couple CPO Roadsters). Has anyone contacted the person to find out if these are legitimate listings, and that they are in fact affiliated with Tesla?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Maybe it's some of the Athlon car lease cars? Those were for Belgia and I think there was talk of an order of around 100 cars? Maybe they only had 87 customers and now are selling the rest?
Several reputable posters in the Dutch language section of the forum reported were contacted by the Brussels sales centre on 14/3 with an offer to buy an inventory car (new). Two people called the service centre which confirmed the availability of between 40 and 50 new cars. Only a loaner fleet or a leasing company that gave a contract back makes sense. Both possibilities can be spun as a positive or a negative : a bigger loaner fleet means better service for customers (positive) but selling them means Tesla overestimated the need for loaners or is willing to reduce service levels temporarily just to boost delivery numbers for the quarter (negative). Same with a lease contract that came back : Tesla is confident in being able to sell the cars themselves to individual buyers, likely at a better price (positive) or a lease company sees continuing weak demand in its European markets (negative).
One last possibility of which I am a little bit skeptical is that the European sale force reported that delivery time is a major hurdle in closing a sale and that this buffer of 100 cars is there to catch potential customers who end up buying a different car instead. I am skeptical because comparable cars also have delivery windows of multiple months.
While we are reporting on Dutch language news : one poster spotted over 30 cars at the Amsterdam service centre alone ready for delivery this month. That's good news for the Dutch delivery numbers which were extremely weak in the first two months of the year (17 in total).
One last possibility of which I am a little bit skeptical is that the European sale force reported that delivery time is a major hurdle in closing a sale and that this buffer of 100 cars is there to catch potential customers who end up buying a different car instead. I am skeptical because comparable cars also have delivery windows of multiple months.
While we are reporting on Dutch language news : one poster spotted over 30 cars at the Amsterdam service centre alone ready for delivery this month. That's good news for the Dutch delivery numbers which were extremely weak in the first two months of the year (17 in total).
Runarbt
Active Member
I do think I ready earlier this week/last week somewhere, that due to slow sales in Germany they did in fact plan to ship a bunch of cars over there to cut down delivery time and boost availability and awarness.
As soon as cars get on the read the virus effect takes place, one sale generates talk-private test drives-more sales.
Nothing wrong admitting that sales in Germany are slow at the moment, germans usually stick to german car brands. Will take some effort to introduce an American brand which also is electric.
Norway and a few other european countries more than make up for this in the short term. 600 cars delivered so far in March alone.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Chickenlittle
Banned
The strongest points against decreasing demand are:
1. Musk appears to be a straight shooter
2. They would be advertising if it were true on real media
3. The guidance was provided only a month ago with cars already sold known an cars to be delivered in the next month already known since there is probably an average of a month from sourcing parts to build to delivery
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