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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Seems to me as if Panasonic must invest in the GF. Tesla is currently their largest customer and will continue to be well into the future. Not going in on the GF with Tesla means Tesla will have to go with another partner who could eventually take over supplying the cells Tesla gets from Panasonic. Even after the GF is up and running Tesla will still require more cells than it can produce and Panasonic could miss out on that business.
 
Seems to me as if Panasonic must invest in the GF. Tesla is currently their largest customer and will continue to be well into the future. Not going in on the GF with Tesla means Tesla will have to go with another partner who could eventually take over supplying the cells Tesla gets from Panasonic. Even after the GF is up and running Tesla will still require more cells than it can produce and Panasonic could miss out on that business.

This is a typical cat and mouse game between TM and Panasonic. Both want the best deal for their company (and stockholders) and are posturing/trying to get that best deal. Both these companies can survive without the other, but both will grow quicker/more smoothly if they don't kill the proverbial 'golden goose' and get a deal done. This could be a great long term partnership with multiple battery factories.
I am not familiar with the geopolitics of China/Japan at all levels. Someone with more knowledge....please feel free to chime in. Will China accept a couple Panasonic/Tesla gigafactories in China or will there have to be a Chinese company/Tesla joint effort for factories there. Could this be a potential hold up...in that Tesla/Panasonic are trying to work out a short term agreement for the first gigafactory but Panasonic wants some assurance that it will be included in future ones??
 
Seems to me as if Panasonic must invest in the GF. Tesla is currently their largest customer and will continue to be well into the future. Not going in on the GF with Tesla means Tesla will have to go with another partner who could eventually take over supplying the cells Tesla gets from Panasonic. Even after the GF is up and running Tesla will still require more cells than it can produce and Panasonic could miss out on that business.

echo of my thoughts as well. Given Panasonic's pain in other businesses, I think tesla carries the bottom-line leverage here. It has to be economically fair to Pan of course, but once achieved, it's Tesla's advantage
 
Seems to me as if Panasonic must invest in the GF. Tesla is currently their largest customer and will continue to be well into the future. Not going in on the GF with Tesla means Tesla will have to go with another partner who could eventually take over supplying the cells Tesla gets from Panasonic. Even after the GF is up and running Tesla will still require more cells than it can produce and Panasonic could miss out on that business.

They'll just be waiting to see Tesla deliver this year.
- Q2 production increase.
- China
- Model X
- RHD markets
- Superchargers, especially Europe and the effect on sales there.
- Driver assist 1.0
New cell production facilities take less than 2 years. Panasonic has time and is undergoing major restructuring, so its not exactly rolling in cash a d I'm sure it'd prefer to wait a bit and see if Tesla can meet its 2014 targets before ljumping in.
 
If I was the CEO of Panasonic, I'd be having second thoughts too. Signing this agreement means the technology that makes Panasonic a leader in making LI batteries will slowly leak out, not to mention the fact that Tesla will have way too much sway due to their order book being > 50% of the total composition.

Eventually what will decide the outcome is the composition of their shareholders. If the insider vs public share ratio favors the public, greed will take over and eventually win. If it is a closely held by insider company like Tesla, it'll depend on who's in charge. Elon needs to insure them that technology will not leak and that they will not try to use their monopoly of their order book to dictate how Panasonic runs their company.

When an alliance like this is proposed, Panasonic stands to lose more, and the intention of Tesla cannot be gauged by mere talk. So it is up to the content of the contract that Panasonic can gauge whether or not Tesla intends to steal the technology and eventually replace Panasonic. Panasonic probably saw something that made them cautious.

One thing that nobody has mentioned is how Panasonic can continue this relationship once Tesla has learned all the information they can from suppliers to processes. Elon has a history of cutting out the middle man if the arrangement isn't to their liking so it is only natural for Panasonic to be wary. Address this worry and I think Panasonic will sign on after a delay.
 
Well, this is actually a recall. May be negative on the stock...

Good catch M.Shadows! I agree that this could look like a recall to the markets but I think they will look at it as TM being proactive in making the car even safer even though NO recall from NHTSA. We have been speculating forever when NHTSA will release their report/recommendations. Personally, I think if TM knows they are getting an 'all clear' today or early next week that they are saying...We know it is safe, NHSTA says it is safe but we want to make it even safer!
 
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Good catch M.Shadows! I agree that this could look like a recall to the markets but I think they will look at it as TM being proactive in making the car even safer even though NO recall from NHTSA. We have been speculating forever when NHTSA will release their report/recommendations. Personally, I think if TM knows they are getting an 'all clear' today or early next week that they are saying...We know it is safe, NHSTA says it is safe but we want to make it even safer!

This would be the best possible scenario. Elon's post didn't say anything like 'in joint agreement with the NHTSA' so perhaps it goes as you suggest. Hopeful.
 
Recalls are not voluntary. I want to know how much it weighs and how much it increases drag. Then I will decide, unless my wife insist on it.

Elon addressed that in his post.

In total, the shields only have a 0.1 percent impact on range and don’t affect ride or handling. Wind tunnel testing shows no discernible change in drag or lift on the car.

This is certainly not a recall, it's a free, optional upgrade.
 
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