Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[vgrinshpun]

Panasonic isn't the only battery manufacturer in the world. Tesla stated it may (will?) partner with multiple companies. (Maxell, Simplo, Desay, LG, Apple, Google?)

Apple would be a logical partner, since $2 Billion or heck, even $5 Billion is a drop in the bucket for it. Apple would directly benefit from a gigantic environmentally friendly battery factory in the United States.

If you are trying to say that this is NOT the end of the Giga-Factory as we came to know it, I totally agree.

However, as much as I hate this fact (hold 400 June 21 contracts that are VERY red now), I think this wavering by Panasonic will drive TSLA down.

 

[Twiddler]

If you are trying to say that this is NOT the end of the Giga-Factory as we came to know it, I totally agree.

However, as much as I hate this fact (hold 400 June 21 contracts that are VERY red now), I think this wavering by Panasonic will drive TSLA down.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out though. I argue that it will help to pin it down in this area, but with an RSI of 25 and such a steep drop, is it really likely to keep moving in that direction? If we were still in the 260s, then yes. I believe that this will lead to a test of 200 tomorrow, but not much lower.

 

[FluxCap]

If you are trying to say that this is NOT the end of the Giga-Factory as we came to know it, I totally agree.

However, as much as I hate this fact (hold 400 June 21 contracts that are VERY red now), I think this wavering by Panasonic will drive TSLA down.

Thanks for this analysis and comment, vgrin. I'm hoping this is "posturing" by Panasonic to negotiate a better position, but agree that it could present a short-term negative catalyst.

Anyone who didn't watch should definitely check out CapOp's excellent commentary and research on Gigafactory partnership status and battery tech in general from our last Google Hangout.

 

[ckessel]

The odd thing to me about Panasonic hesitating is do they not believe in their own battery technology? Do they not believe Tesla is going to have much future demand? Do they not believe there will be demand from folks other than Tesla?

 

[Curt Renz]

A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement of approximately 38.2% from a recent high (February) toward the previous low (November) is rather common. Based on intraday figures, this would place TSLA support at 208.13. Based on closing figures, support would come at 202.39.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The odd thing to me about Panasonic hesitating is do they not believe in their own battery technology? Do they not believe Tesla is going to have much future demand? Do they not believe there will be demand from folks other than Tesla?

They just have a different corporate culture: risk averse. The risk is that they will co-invest into the Giga Factory, but TM will not be able to sell cars/storage worth of 50GWh of batteries. As a result they will increase their company's investment risk as a whole

- - - Updated - - -

A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement of approximately 38.2% from a recent high (February) toward the previous low (November) is rather common. Based on intraday figures, this would place TSLA support at 208.13. Based on closing figures, support would come at 202.39.

Also it is worth noting that duration of the last Fall slide, ignoring the period after the fires, was about one month. The current slide will be about month old during the first week of April. Also, at about $202, TSLA might get into one of previously established upward trading channels. Let's hope that we are nearing the point of inflection.

 

[FANGO]

All Tsuga is saying is, they haven't signed the contract to build the factory yet. They are still working out where it's going to be. That plays into the financing of the project. Once the location is known (down to the street address, probably) all parties will sign a gigantic contract, and at that point they are "committed."

I am sure they are very interested in committing... they are just working out the last details of the contract.

Right, it would certainly not be proper for him to just say they've committed to it when details have not yet been hammered out, and when Tesla said partner negotiations will last for the next several months in the slides they posted online.

Everyone also keep in mind that Panasonic is a relatively conservative company. This is true of many Japanese companies, but Panasonic in particular I think is one of the more conservative, in my knowledge. So it is in keeping with that culture that they would take their time with a big commitment such as this.

 

[Bgarret]

Panasonic isn't the only battery manufacturer in the world. Tesla stated it may (will?) partner with multiple companies. (Maxell, Simplo, Desay, LG, Apple, Google?)

Apple would be a logical partner, since $2 Billion or heck, even $5 Billion is a drop in the bucket for it. Apple would directly benefit from a gigantic environmentally friendly battery factory in the United States.

To me, the MOST interesting potential partner is China. Partner in the first, lead in the second (and more) located in China, and if you think Apple has deep pockets ??? It would send an amazing message to markets about Teslas long term viability and position China to start going to scale with rooftop solar with battery backup and transition to EV transport to begin to address their air pollution. It also wouldn't hurt if they adopted Tesla as the charging standard at the same time. I know this sounds like I've been having some of that koolaid, but it could explain some of the gigafactory announcement delays. Elon flies over to China, delivers some P85+s, including 1 to the leading technologist in China, announces some mega deals, hops his jet, delivers the Prince of England a Tesla then wings on over to London and Jams with the Stones!

Maybe be no more hard cider with lunch..but at least I'm drinking and dreaming rather than drinking and trading.

See everyone with Elon and Mick in London. First round is on me, since we will all be gazillionaires.

Cheers.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Situation in Drammen this morning, all of those cars are being delivered...

Tesla Motors Drammen - march 27th 7:30am - YouTube

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Just got IB big alert on my screen. Trading of TSLA has been halted!

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Hmm... TSLA is still traded, but it looks like Jan 2015 $275 option is halted (regulatory halt) I guess IB doesn't distinguish option and underlying ones in that alert (real popup that I had to discard).

 

[SteveG3]

To me, the MOST interesting potential partner is China. Partner in the first, lead in the second (and more) located in China, and if you think Apple has deep pockets ??? It would send an amazing message to markets about Teslas long term viability and position China to start going to scale with rooftop solar with battery backup and transition to EV transport to begin to address their air pollution. It also wouldn't hurt if they adopted Tesla as the charging standard at the same time. I know this sounds like I've been having some of that koolaid, but it could explain some of the gigafactory announcement delays. Elon flies over to China, delivers some P85+s, including 1 to the leading technologist in China, announces some mega deals, hops his jet, delivers the Prince of England a Tesla then wings on over to London and Jams with the Stones!

Maybe be no more hard cider with lunch..but at least I'm drinking and dreaming rather than drinking and trading.

See everyone with Elon and Mick in London. First round is on me, since we will all be gazillionaires.

Cheers.

Bgarret... who knows, so something worth thinking about, thanks for posting it. worth baring in mind Elon went to Russia to buy rockets, and talks about a Mar's colony, so I don't see him reflexively ruling out anything without thought.

 

[Lessmog]

Situation in Drammen this morning, all of those cars are being delivered...

Tesla Motors Drammen - march 27th 7:30am - YouTube

- - - Updated - - -

Just got IB big alert on my screen. Trading of TSLA has been halted!

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm... TSLA is still traded, but it looks like Jan 2015 $275 option is halted (regulatory halt) I guess IB doesn't distinguish option and underlying ones in that alert (real popup that I had to discard).

Fantastic! Fabelhaft! Sagolik! I lost count at 59, when they started to be dual parked and the camera shifted back and forth, but my estimate is between 100 and 150 right there. And as a final coda, in comes a truck with 6 more! All or most of these cars may well be delivered by Monday night, thus in Q1-14.

What a bootstrap. Thanks, Mario.

 

[dalalsid]

Situation in Drammen this morning, all of those cars are being delivered...

Tesla Motors Drammen - march 27th 7:30am - YouTube

- - - Updated - - -

Just got IB big alert on my screen. Trading of TSLA has been halted!

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm... TSLA is still traded, but it looks like Jan 2015 $275 option is halted (regulatory halt) I guess IB doesn't distinguish option and underlying ones in that alert (real popup that I had to discard).

That seems like it must be some kind of record for the number of Tesla's in one place other than a factory?

 

[Jack6591]

Panasonic isn't the only battery manufacturer in the world. Tesla stated it may (will?) partner with multiple companies. (Maxell, Simplo, Desay, LG, Apple, Google?)

Apple would be a logical partner, since $2 Billion or heck, even $5 Billion is a drop in the bucket for it. Apple would directly benefit from a gigantic environmentally friendly battery factory in the United States.

Elon Musk is one helluva negotiator, and an even bettor poker player. Get your cool factor on.

 

[clmason]

Elon is reportedly visiting Asia this weekend. Perhaps his mission is to meet with Panasonic and get the deal done.

 

[Twiddler]

Elon Musk is one helluva negotiator, and an even bettor poker player. Get your cool factor on.

I sure hope so. We need good news like the dealerships need a lobby.

 

[pz1975]

Elon is reportedly visiting Asia this weekend. Perhaps his mission is to meet with Panasonic and get the deal done.

Is this confirmed or just the ongoing rumor discussed the last few days?

 

[brysondad]

Tm is not going to confirm a trip to Asia to negotiate their future. You'll learn about the confirmed RESULT.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My news feed on TSLA is showing a lot of negative media sentiment: headlines saying there is Gigafactory "risk", that technicals are against the stock, and experts say the company is overvalued.

All of this says to me: shares are a buy in the 200-210 range. 10-bagger in 5-6 years.

 

[AlMc]

My news feed on TSLA is showing a lot of negative media sentiment: headlines saying there is Gigafactory "risk", that technicals are against the stock, and experts say the company is overvalued.

All of this says to me: shares are a buy in the 200-210 range. 10-bagger in 5-6 years.

:smile: So, AntiC; Calling aPT of $2,000/share in March 2020?!? Hope I live to long enough to see that!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

:smile: So, AntiC; Calling aPT of $2,000/share in March 2020?!? Hope I live to long enough to see that!

Haha, well, I wish I could be that precise. I probably should say that I believe the share price is likely to be multiples higher around 2020 than it is today, if Tesla is able to execute it's publicized roadmap.

I have a high degree of confidence in Elon and the Tesla management team because they have a superb track record of making great things happen.