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Again that is the future of the company, that is what was promised. If you subscribe to the school of thought that TSLA is valued correctly based on the execution of these strategies 2-3 years down the line, then the future obviously counts.
I don't. TSLA currently makes 1 product, and 1 product only. They promise they will have more in 1-4 years, but I'm not concerned with that, if you are a short term trader (short term discussions), then you shouldn't be concerned with those things either.
What I am concerned with, is numbers and expectations, what I am concerned with is how the stock has reacted given when given a stimulus (ER's).
Here were my expectations of this ER
So the results we got were the worst case out of those three. And my expectations, even in the BEST case were conservative compared to many on this forum.
And yeah, we did see the gigafactory coming, most people actually expected a location by now, and pretty much everyone guessed Panasonic had to be a partner since they are already TSLA battery supplier. The news we got in the call was MEDIOCRE, except for maybe China, but no one seems to care anyways.
So we've got a mediocre call, and worst case numbers. Why should the price go up? This is almost exactly like Q3.
Please read the rest of the post. You seem to be saying that nothing at all has changed since Q3. We didn't know at all about the gigafactory in Q3, so that has changed. Deliveries to China had not started, so that has changed. There wasn't a job fair to hire thousands of people. There wasn't a facility in Lathrop. Demand has continued to increase. There are still zero competitors.
Not only do we have more view of the future of the company now than we did then, we also have more information of what has happened in the last 6 months. If you really think nothing is changed, then you have had your eyes closed and your fingers in your ears.
Or, if what you think is that companies should only ever be valued on what has happened in the past, and never take into account the future of the company whatsoever, then I think perhaps that the stock market is not your thing.
I really don't think you listened to the call.
My apologies. However, even without the fires it would seem like we are seeing similar results. I have no doubt that the people that want to see this stock lower will have similar misleading stories to throw out this week and next.
Well then, everyone trading today has really bad ears.
Again the changes to the company have been in the promises, goals, and foresight. NOT in what the company was presently doing at the time.
True.
One of the first articles I saw yesterday said that Tesla missed analyst consensus, because they mixed up consensus 699m non-gaap revenue with actual 624m gaap revenue. So they called it a 75million miss. This is, of course, not the case. But that's an example of people trading with bad ears. That sort of thing has been all over the place, tons of headlines of Tesla posting a loss, which didn't happen.
So this is exactly what you said two comments up, about misleading stories to throw out this week and next. The company is brighter than it was 6 months ago and brighter than it was 3 months ago, so either the stock price was too high 3 months ago, or it's depressed now. Or both.
"Brighter" in promises, which I have no doubt that Elon can fulfill, I just don't think TSLA's value should reflect promises. At least in the short term.
So I do think the price was too high 3 months ago. I still think its too high now until the Model X's are actually being made and the GF is actually being built.
Okay, so, you said you wanted a discussion, in a discussion what we do is read what the other person says, instead of just saying the same thing over and over. I already responded to this promises thing at least twice. You're saying that the only thing that has changed is promises, which is both not true since many things have changed, but also wholly material to the stock price, because the stock price is about the future of the company, always and forever, for every company, as that is the nature and entire purpose of the stock market's existence.
And if not, then I would like to buy some AMZN stock from you for 64 cents a share, since that's their current EPS and they've never produced much significant profit so clearly their company is worth nothing and has no future, correct?
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I've said it before that this is mostly related to rotation out of momentum stocks and a correction in the Nasdaq. TSLA benefited from the run up and is affected on the way down. Things will not change until we see a sentiment shift in the Nasdaq.
Apple was doing very well in 2008 but AAPL was affected by the crash just like everyone else.
Apple was doing very well in 2008 but AAPL was affected by the crash just like everyone else.
sub
Active Member
I've been long TSLA for about a year, this was the first ER that I was short options (sold calls, bought puts) but was still long shares. I closed out options at market open this morning and watched the price action before selling my shares at what turns out to be a decent short term price. I have full faith in TSLA long term, but I have no problem trying to increase my returns when I see an opportunity. I felt a mediocre ER coming and took precaution's, no guilt here. On the pro Tesla side, the better my returns the sooner I can buy a Tesla and help the company directly. I do not enjoy seeing all the longs here taking this short term hit, i have benefited from the group think on this forum and I appreciate it.
I'll admit China is new. But it doesn't seem to be affecting things much anyways. We still sold similar amount of cars just in different places.
Lathrop wasn't mentioned in the call at all, so either they are keeping it hush hush, or a simpler explanation would be that nothing important is going on there.
The job fair didn't affect anything in Q1, just Q2, and it was announced publicly well enough before the report, and in the end doesn't generate revenues yet, not until they actually hire people, just like the GF. They both reflect what the company WILL be doing, not what they are currently doing.
No doubt the stock reflects the future, but 2-3 years in the future? With TSLA that also reflects perfect execution. Is that justified? Are other ALL companies given the same leeway? No, TSLA must be unique.
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I will buy your shares for 12 cents then, since that is the EPS for this quarter, and current performance is the only thing that matters. Heck, I'll even pay you double, 24 cents a share. And you should take it, because you'll be getting 6 months worth of earnings now, instead of having to wait 6 months for it...because you never know what might happen in the future.
Fine, then wait to buy shares (or cover shorts) until those events occur and pay the going price at that time. I'll bet that will be a significantly higher price than today. Investors really do pay for future prospects, and not just what can be gleaned from data of a completed quarter.
I think Cwin has a point. Basically meeting expectations in a negative market environment was not good enough. To longs, the on-track message was great to hear because we know as long as TM can execute the plan we will win big in the end. But yesterday there were no upside surprises - no huge beat, still production constrained this quarter and next, no ZEV cashed in, no concrete data about GF, Model X, China - nothing to make people buy today as opposed to pre-q3 2014. Sure, some FUD about plateauing demand and Panasonic was dispelled, but no one really believed that anyway.
To me, this is an opportunity. The long-term picture now looks better but the short-term doesn't, and the price is reflecting that. I'm buying now and I'll keep buying all the way down. We will see the price increase as things actually start to materialize: gigafactory breaking ground, Model X reveal, longer-term China data quantified, etc.
To me, this is an opportunity. The long-term picture now looks better but the short-term doesn't, and the price is reflecting that. I'm buying now and I'll keep buying all the way down. We will see the price increase as things actually start to materialize: gigafactory breaking ground, Model X reveal, longer-term China data quantified, etc.
They beat expectations. And the call was full of new things. Including the Panasonic and demand things, which were obviously FUD all along, but must have been somewhat responsible for 265->here
But like you said, obviously it's an opportunity, because there wasn't any actual bad news except a couple month delay for something which was really always going to be delayed from the get-go and shouldn't affect sales since we're already selling all the batteries we can get.
Not doubt. I wont argue that TSLA's value will increase in the future. And yeah, there is SOME future value included in the price. But just because you promise a new factory that wont begin to produce anything in 3-4 more years your stock shouldn't reflect a 25% increase.
Yeah, but not by much and not enough that it couldn't be spun negative in the headlines. And the new things were mostly long-term things that are awesome, but won't affect Q2 performance.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Just checking in. I hope you are all doing fine during this onslaught. I am in Vietnam now and will enter China shirtly.
My belief about tesla's future remains strong. When all is said and done, the demand in China will just overwhelm the rest of the world. Tesla is a new carmaker, so it doesn't have the jaded history of other carmakers in ripping the Chinese off. From all the extra investment going on, i gathered that Elon is seriously ramping up to this reality. Either from what he is seeing in the order book or from the tesla store. Something that is becoming more urgent for me to confirm.
The one thing I do not like in the conference call is the Panasonic letter of intent. If I remember my board room 101 correctly. Panasonic now holds the position of power. It was Elon's mistake in using an announcement that the gigafactory will have multiple partners to try and force Panasonic to sign on. Now that the dust has cleared and there's only Panasonic. They state the terms. This letter of intent is an asian's way of saying. Yes you have permission to go ahead and announce whatever you want. BUT, nothing is real until we say so.
Panasonic called Tesla's buff and won. This is either because Panasonic's cells are reall that superior to others. Or Elon has a hard on for panasonic because it shouldn't take too much effort for tesla to sign on another battery manufacturer just to put more oomph in the bluff.. My guess is. Due to the fierce nature of the Koreans, Samsung think it is an insult to accept Tesla's terms. Which means Panasonic put a lot of goodwill in the contract due to 1. Japanese respect tech 2. Japanese likes americans 3. Panasonic's stock was in trouble before Tesla.
However, Panasonic is only in a position of power because Elon is rushing it with the gigafactory. This comes back to the overwhelming demand theory from China.
In most part of asia. The Chinese has now taken over as the main group of tourists. The languages offered by guides are English, Mandarin and French. With Mandarin guide making the most money and in short supply. This is because when the Chinese come, they come in 5 truckloads of people at a time and they are always on a guided tour meaning the highest paid price... And they buy a lot of trinkets. There's now a job I can do just from being born. Teach Mandarin in SE asia in high demand and pays $40k usd per year. Less than 60k for english in dubai, but it will get there eventually.
I didn't know how much they have taken over in importance within the tourism industry until I tried to bargain with a street vendor on food. English didn't work. French was soso ( Must be my quebec accent) And Mandarin just worked. From a 40 something guy who didn't bother to learn English while being born to French speaking parents. He was forced to learn Mandarin for a reason.
In any case, I will report more as find out more. If I sound like a propaganda machine for China, it is only because I am surprised by their spending power.
My belief about tesla's future remains strong. When all is said and done, the demand in China will just overwhelm the rest of the world. Tesla is a new carmaker, so it doesn't have the jaded history of other carmakers in ripping the Chinese off. From all the extra investment going on, i gathered that Elon is seriously ramping up to this reality. Either from what he is seeing in the order book or from the tesla store. Something that is becoming more urgent for me to confirm.
The one thing I do not like in the conference call is the Panasonic letter of intent. If I remember my board room 101 correctly. Panasonic now holds the position of power. It was Elon's mistake in using an announcement that the gigafactory will have multiple partners to try and force Panasonic to sign on. Now that the dust has cleared and there's only Panasonic. They state the terms. This letter of intent is an asian's way of saying. Yes you have permission to go ahead and announce whatever you want. BUT, nothing is real until we say so.
Panasonic called Tesla's buff and won. This is either because Panasonic's cells are reall that superior to others. Or Elon has a hard on for panasonic because it shouldn't take too much effort for tesla to sign on another battery manufacturer just to put more oomph in the bluff.. My guess is. Due to the fierce nature of the Koreans, Samsung think it is an insult to accept Tesla's terms. Which means Panasonic put a lot of goodwill in the contract due to 1. Japanese respect tech 2. Japanese likes americans 3. Panasonic's stock was in trouble before Tesla.
However, Panasonic is only in a position of power because Elon is rushing it with the gigafactory. This comes back to the overwhelming demand theory from China.
In most part of asia. The Chinese has now taken over as the main group of tourists. The languages offered by guides are English, Mandarin and French. With Mandarin guide making the most money and in short supply. This is because when the Chinese come, they come in 5 truckloads of people at a time and they are always on a guided tour meaning the highest paid price... And they buy a lot of trinkets. There's now a job I can do just from being born. Teach Mandarin in SE asia in high demand and pays $40k usd per year. Less than 60k for english in dubai, but it will get there eventually.
I didn't know how much they have taken over in importance within the tourism industry until I tried to bargain with a street vendor on food. English didn't work. French was soso ( Must be my quebec accent) And Mandarin just worked. From a 40 something guy who didn't bother to learn English while being born to French speaking parents. He was forced to learn Mandarin for a reason.
In any case, I will report more as find out more. If I sound like a propaganda machine for China, it is only because I am surprised by their spending power.
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