Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[TSLAopt]

LOL, I remember seeing it at 69% when I bought my first position at $40. Hopefully history will repeat itself

Keep in mind this statistic is influenced by the amount of shorts there are out there too...it's not all weak retail investor longs who are selling to the institutions but a recent increase in shorts are also selling more shares to these new institutional longs.

That 69% stat is based off of if there were no shorts...but because there are about 30mm shares short per the last report then it really is about 55% of all shares sold are held by institutional long investors:

(121mm shares + 30mm shares)/(83mm shares held by institutions) = 55%

 

[The Blue Owl]

Keep in mind this statistic is influenced by the amount of shorts there are out there too...it's not all weak retail investor longs who are selling to the institutions but a recent increase in shorts are also selling more shares to these new institutional longs.

That 69% stat is based off of if there were no shorts...but because there are about 30mm shares short per the last report then it really is about 55% of all shares sold are held by institutional long investors:

(121mm shares + 30mm shares)/(83mm shares held by institutions) = 55%

Fair point, but it still seems that, on balance, institutions as a group are going "longer".

 

[Cwin]

looks like we're back to tracking the NASDAQ but with a high Beta

Is that a good thing after today? Especially if you believe that this is a peak.

 

[uselesslogin]

Keep in mind this statistic is influenced by the amount of shorts there are out there too...it's not all weak retail investor longs who are selling to the institutions but a recent increase in shorts are also selling more shares to these new institutional longs.

That 69% stat is based off of if there were no shorts...but because there are about 30mm shares short per the last report then it really is about 55% of all shares sold are held by institutional long investors:

(121mm shares + 30mm shares)/(83mm shares held by institutions) = 55%

There were of course more than 30mm shares short when I last saw it at 69% on Google Finance when the stock was at $40. Plus Elon's 32% isn't counted in that number, is it?

 

[kenliles]

Is that a good thing after today? Especially if you believe that this is a peak.

I'd say no- If you believe the market/NASDAQ is at a peak, you should be out or light of near all equities regardless. I hear tell there's a run on bonds

I'll say this though- 1st time in a long time the NASDAQ outperforming the DOW - albeit less loss. I think maybe the momo compression is coming nearer to and end than a beginning. If so, that will require all markets to recede from here.

 

[JRP3]

sorry, didn't get you. what do you mean with cumulative numbers?

That the April numbers also include the previous months numbers, so a cumulative total.

 

[Cwin]

So, today looks like it will be an alright day. I still hold my 200 june 06 calls, which are break even - theta.

I just don't know what to do about next week. I haven't done any research into possible catalysts, and with TSLA tracking the market so well I'll have to look into catalysts from the market as well.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

That the April numbers also include the previous months numbers, so a cumulative total.

is that true? I'll double check this with the publisher here. already sent out an email this morning.

 

[Cwin]

Does anyone know what just tanked everything?

 

[AlMc]

Does anyone know what just tanked everything?

One idea: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101680033 Consumer sentiment drop

 

[dmunjal]

Nice turnaround today. Probably related to the Nasdaq. Would like to test 200 soon to see if this move is real.

 

[Cwin]

Nice turnaround today. Probably related to the Nasdaq. Would like to test 200 soon to see if this move is real.

Yeah, its just moving with the market.

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to some "save the date" e-mails received by UK TMC members, it seems that UK "high profile" delivery event with EM is scheduled for June 7:

First RHD delivery in UK March 2014 - Elon Musk to delivery himself - Page 6

 

[uselesslogin]

OK guys, so we all know Q2 production was sold out by the conference call. I'm sure that is true but obviously they will put some US orders ahead so they can get in by the end of the quarter. Folks on the delivery tracker who confirmed May 9th are told they are getting their cars by the end of June. I think I went on the website not long after that and saw the date of July. Over on the order date thread someone else saw it go to August and then Late August. Well, when I checked now the standard cars are September and performance cars are late August.

Basically it would seem that in a matter of a week wait times have gone from less than 2 months to about 4 months. I suppose it could mean any number of things but I certainly don't think it means there is a demand problem.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Basically it would seem that in a matter of a week wait times have gone from less than 2 months to about 4 months. I suppose it could mean any number of things but I certainly don't think it means there is a demand problem.

It could mean one of the three things:

1. There was a rush of new US orders during the 9 days after the ER, but it could not possibly explain increasing wait time by two month. The math just does not work. Assuming that roughly half of current production is allocated for US, i.e. 350 cars/week, in order to extend wait time by 8 weeks (2 months) the additional order intake would need to be 8 x 350 = 2800, all within 9 days - just not possible in my opinion.
2. The future US allocation (beyond two month delivery ending in June) was significantly lowered, perhaps to increase allocation for deliveries in China. The reduction in US allocation to make this plausible would also need to be extreme.
3. Some kind of combination of 1 and 2.

Any way you slice this, the claims of diminishing demand are just preposterous.

 

[SteveG3]

sounds like the first week of June will have some nice news flow for Tesla, with the annual meeting followed by high profile UK delivery June 7th. perhaps Elon will make other stops in Europe, but if nothing else, some interviews in the UK, and perhaps a store Q&A session seem somewhat likely. clearly Elon has a tendency to pass out new information at these kinds of events.

one thing few seem aware of that might get reported on with this trip is Elon's position as an advisor to the UK's vehicle electrification push announced last fall by the nation's Deputy Prime Minister.

UKs Newest Advisor Is Elon Musk | CleanTechnica

 

[JRP3]

is that true? I'll double check this with the publisher here. already sent out an email this morning.

I don't know, I was just explaining what the other person was saying.

 

[TSLAopt]

It could mean one of the three things:

1. There was a rush of new US orders during the 9 days after the ER, but it could not possibly explain increasing wait time by two month. The math just does not work. Assuming that roughly half of current production is allocated for US, i.e. 350 cars/week, in order to extend wait time by 8 weeks (2 months) the additional order intake would need to be 8 x 350 = 2800, all within 9 days - just not possible in my opinion.
2. The future US allocation (beyond two month delivery ending in June) was significantly lowered, perhaps to increase allocation for deliveries in China. The reduction in US allocation to make this plausible would also need to be extreme.
3. Some kind of combination of 1 and 2.

Any way you slice this, the claims of diminishing demand are just preposterous.

or 4)they were anticipating ramping up in Q3 but now have to push the ramp up to Q4 bc Panasonic is further behind than they thought with the extra battery output.

i hope it is not (4) but it is a possibility we have to also consider

 

[uselesslogin]

or 4)they were anticipating ramping up in Q3 but now have to push the ramp up to Q4 bc Panasonic is further behind than they thought with the extra battery output.

i hope it is not (4) but it is a possibility we have to also consider

Oh, yeah, OK hoping that isn't it but there certainly is nothing to eliminate that as a possibility.

 

[vgrinshpun]

or 4)they were anticipating ramping up in Q3 but now have to push the ramp up to Q4 bc Panasonic is further behind than they thought with the extra battery output.

i hope it is not (4) but it is a possibility we have to also consider

Yes, this is another possibility, but if this would be true, why would they switch production to the new line in June? There seem to be no need to do that if the battery supply does not improve.

Or may be they switched to the new line so that the old one can be upgraded as well...