Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Muskol]

This is definitely a squeeze.

A new PT from Adam Jonas would be cool right about now. Then we could all watch TSLA lifting off for quite a while longer.

Nice setup for Gigafactory groundbreaking as well.

 

[mershaw2001]

This is definitely a squeeze.

A new PT from Adam Jonas would be cool right about now. Then we could all watch TSLA lifting off for quite a while longer.

Honestly, i think it's quite likely that price target was set to squeeze the shorts so that tesla could pick up 2 billion in funding for the gigafactory. I don't think there's the same incentive now to blow the shorts away and raise some cash.

 

[Johan]

Honestly, i think it's quite likely that price target was set to squeeze the shorts so that tesla could pick up 2 billion in funding for the gigafactory. I don't think there's the same incentive now to blow the shorts away and raise some cash.

While it could be true, it's quite an accusation towards Morgan Stanley to say what you're saying... But hey on Wall Street anything is possible.

 

[AlMc]

This has short squeeze written all over it....we settled into a normal trading volume range of 3-4mm shares per day, half of which was probably HFT volume (conservatively half, probably more)...and 25mm+ shares held short still.
If a big short wants to close out of 1-2mm of shares held short then it will drive the price up sharply for a move like we see today.
even though there are 11mm shares volume today....you can bet when an institutional HF needs to close out of a large position they will do so by using Algos that try to fight off HFT leaches but in doing so creates excessive volume so to close out of 1-2mm shares it may really take that billion dollar hedge fund's algos to trade 3-4mm shares in gross but really only be 1-2mm net buying volume of covering their short position.

if there are not enough new shorts to take on the position from the short trying to get out then there really isn't much liquidity out there to get out of the large short position....I don't know any investors willing to sell their long term holdings anytime soon so that is what is ultimately driving this price up so much in my opinion....a mini short squeeze. Perhaps more to come if it turns into a larger short squeeze, but at some point new shorts will jump in to take their place I would think...whether it's at the open tomorrow driving the price back down a bit or not until we reach 300 is anyone's guess.

The initial surge to 215 early was probably due to Iraq, the X and patent news, but I agree that caused the shorts to come in leading to the blast back up to the 225 range. The next few days could be quite interesting, especially if more positive news comes out about the Gigafactory.

Congrats to all the longs and call buyers. GasDoc: Nice!! Happy for you

 

[The Blue Owl]

I think ICE car makers are now in a Prisoner's Dilemma. They may not all realize it yet, but I'm sure BMW and Nissan know it.

To a traditional manufacturer, betting on the status quo looked like a reasonable choice before the patent announcement. It must have seemed too expensive and risky for most of them to make large investments in R&D only for the hope to get, in a few years, to where Tesla already is today. Not to mention the commitment to the huge capex required for battery production at scale and for building their own charging networks.

Now, with the open call from Tesla for technology and infrastructure sharing (including sharing of the costs), it is suddenly more risky to NOT join Tesla in the electric revolution, because their competitors just might, leaving non-participants behind.

Tesla's move could prove to be very destabilizing, in a good way.

 

[sleepyhead]

The reason that TSLA went up as much as it did today had to do with the rumor that Nissan and BMW are interested in coming up with, and possibly collaborating, a charging standard with Tesla; most certainly using Tesla's supercharger technology.

Probably good for a one day pop. but I am not expecting more upside without any new significant news for the rest of the week.

 

[hockeythug]

Was CNBC pimping the stock all day today?

 

[jhm]

I think ICE car makers are now in a Prisoner's Dilemma. They may not all realize it yet, but I'm sure BMW and Nissan know it.

To a traditional manufacturer, betting on the status quo looked like a reasonable choice before the patent announcement. It must have seemed too expensive and risky for most of them to make large investments in R&D only for the hope to get, in a few years, to where Tesla already is today. Not to mention the commitment to the huge capex required for battery production at scale and for building their own charging networks.

Now, with the open call from Tesla for technology and infrastructure sharing (including sharing of the costs), it is suddenly more risky to NOT join Tesla in the electric revolution, because their competitors just might, leaving non-participants behind.

Tesla's move could prove to be very destabilizing, in a good way.

This is spot on. Sharing the Supercharger network is just the beginning and not such a big deal. The market is starting to price this in. What very few understand is that the real race is to build out the first 20 gigafactories. Patents sharing will derisk this investment. Those who clone themselves after Tesla will share in controlling the global productive capacity in perpetuity. Each gigafactory is worth 5% of the future auto market. Few people comprehend the implications.

 

[v12 to 12v]

If we are playing the time travel game, I would have put $100k into June 20 220 calls for $0.59 each this morning, and would have 1.1M right now. Oh well

Well, I didn't put THAT much in them. ;-)

- - - Updated - - -

Was CNBC pimping the stock all day today?

Not at all. All the chatter was pre-market.

 

[The Blue Owl]

And, right on cue, our old friend Paul Santos is back to doing his thing: desperately trying to talk the stock down. What's incredible is that he's still beating the same dead horse of plateauing demand. Now, that's some serious lack of imagination.

 

[mershaw2001]

And, right on cue, our old friend Paul Santos is back to doing his thing: desperately trying to talk the stock down. What's incredible is that he's still beating the same dead horse of plateauing demand. Now, that's some serious lack of imagination.

Wow, so predictable. Hopefully he was short at 200. I don't believe when they say they have no position.

 

[30seconds]

Was CNBC pimping the stock all day today?

I'm finding today's jump somewhat odd - although between patents, Model X mail and BMW discussions there is news.

May be more to come tomorrow.

 

[jhm]

Wow, so predictable. Hopefully he was short at 200. I don't believe when they say they have no position.

If they have no position, they're just a tool.

 

[Thumper]

Don't forget Iraq! What a long term mess.

 

[FredTMC]

If they have no position, they're just a tool.

Yeah, what a pathetic piece of FUD. Total BS about US demand declining. Didn't TM address this completely on last Earnings Call? I recall TM saying U.S. demand is INCREASING sequentially each month. Is Santos calling Elon a liar?!

BTW: As usual, congrats to all us Longs...

 

[Johan]

Marketwatch concludes today's 8% jump is because of a charger deal. Methinks that's a bogus explanation.

"Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA +8.81% rallied 8.3% on news that Marcus Hotels and Resorts, owned by Marcus Corp. MCS -0.52% , will install power charging stations for Tesla cars at its properties in the United States."

 

[sleepyhead]

Marketwatch concludes today's 8% jump is because of a charger deal. Methinks that's a bogus explanation.

"Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA +8.81% rallied 8.3% on news that Marcus Hotels and Resorts, owned by Marcus Corp. MCS -0.52% , will install power charging stations for Tesla cars at its properties in the United States."

And also because of a news article that talked about a possible collaboration from BMW, Nissan, and Tesla to standardize car charging, i.e. superchargers to become the VHS.

 

[Curt Renz]

Marketwatch concludes today's 8% jump is because of a charger deal. Methinks that's a bogus explanation.

"Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA +8.81% rallied 8.3% on news that Marcus Hotels and Resorts, owned by Marcus Corp. MCS -0.52% , will install power charging stations for Tesla cars at its properties in the United States."

Indeed, Johan, that was likely a very small part of the explanation for today's move, unless it is thought that it will inspire larger hotel chains to do the same. The confirmation of Model X deliveries early next year may have been a bigger factor, along with talk of charging collaboration with other companies.

And it may be dawning on more investors how positive the patent news was. At the very least it was a brilliant public relations move. Tesla Motors was being hailed across the social media over the weekend.

It may get Panasonic moving more quickly with participation in the Gigafactories. Elon expects it to attract visionary engineering talent. He also may have hoped to scare out weak longs last week, and leave only shareholders with vision for the long term. That would make it hard on short sellers hoping to cover at low prices.

 

[kenliles]

Indeed, Johan, that was likely a very small part of the explanation for today's move, unless it is thought that it will inspire larger hotel chains to do the same. The confirmation of Model X deliveries early next year may have been a bigger factor, along with talk of charging collaboration with other companies.

And it may be dawning on more investors how positive the patent news was. At the very least it was a brilliant public relations move. Tesla Motors was being hailed across the social media over the weekend.

It may get Panasonic moving more quickly with participation in the Gigafactories. Elon expects it to attract visionary engineering talent. He also may have hoped to scare out weak longs last week, and leave only shareholders with vision for the long term. That would make it hard on short sellers hoping to cover at low prices.

I'll add mid-east turmoil and and sky rocketing oil prices to that mix- Solars were all up today too, on a flat market

 

[Auzie]

I would much prefer spike on Nasdaq.:biggrin:

My trading Genie to me: Your wish is my command, wake up, wake up...:biggrin: