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The "Osborne" effect. Announce a new model too early, and people cancel an existing reservation, or "keep waiting" for the next, newest model. Plus, they don't even have mock ups much less alphas to show. Once the Model X launches and is in production, I'm sure they'll turn their full attention to the GenIII, they are probably already on the design... Remember, they need time for the battery pricing to come down to more affordable levels.. It doesnt do them any good to have a massive waiting list, that they can't begin to deliver for 3 years or longer.
Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm glad Tesla is not taking Gen3 reservations right now. I'd rather not have to lock up $5000 cash for 4 years just to hold a place in line. I'd rather hold 25 more shares of Tesla stock.
Gen 3 pre-orders is a point that I struggle with. How are people seeing this playing out??
I could foresee a situation that after all the positive press from the MS and MX that we could go into the Gen 3 pre-order red hot. We will only have one Gigafactory online at that point, not even at full capacity. What happens if there is an absurd amount of pre-orders? That could be both amazing and disastrous at the same time. The money from the pre-orders alone could start funding another Gigafactory, but conversely, reservation holders could be sitting on their pre-orders for several years causing a PR nightmare.
During my thought experiments, one potential solution that I came up with, in order to avoid a long wait-list, would be to control the demand by having a pretty high deposit price for pre-orders. However, this is a double edged sword because they can't make it appear that demand is too low either. They could then drop the deposit price when they can handle more demand.
In an ideal situation, battery supply will ramp up quick enough to tackle a long wait-list. Unfortunately, the only way that can happen is to start breaking ground on a second Gigafactory soon.
This is an interesting thing to think about, and I believe pretty strongly that people are going to be shocked at how strong the demand will be!
It would surprise me a lot if Tesla would go that way. I never saw the reservation fee as a hurdle to prevent people from buying or reducing the number of res. holders, but as a way to finance production up front. I suspect the fee being much lower then the Model S and X. Seeing how EM sticks to his words i would not be surprised if the reservation fee would be below USD 1'000 (after all Gen II is supposed to be affordable for the masses).
I am also convinced, that the demand for Gen III will be mind boggling. Too much demand can't really be a problem.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
What do the more experienced guys here think about opt exp later today?
To me it looks like MMs are trying to hold sp a bit down because of opt exp.
I am thinking about buying some short term calls for next week on any dip today hoping for some upside beginning next week.
Any thoughts (good idea - bad idea - stupid idea)?!
Any comments highly appreciated!
To me it looks like MMs are trying to hold sp a bit down because of opt exp.
I am thinking about buying some short term calls for next week on any dip today hoping for some upside beginning next week.
Any thoughts (good idea - bad idea - stupid idea)?!
Any comments highly appreciated!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sitting on pre-orders for several years like the MX? (too soon?
) I don't think having too many pre-orders is a problem, and they are in fact planning some contingencies if that's the case, i.e. breaking ground on 2-3 GF this year. If they receive a huge injection of capital Gen3 preorders, they can speed schedules for GF2 and GF3 aggressively with a clear picture of demand.Lowering the pre-order price does not work, as you either have to partially refund or really piss off early reservation holders. Honestly all things considered, setting a reasonable price like $2k and having a lot of preorders is fine. Customers wouldn't blame them if they have 300k pre-orders and it takes till 2018 to get to your spot in line.. in fact as I assume the queue will only grow, makes them treasure their reservation more.
The first level of Fibonacci retracement -23.6% $226 looks like strong support. I am really surprised that it holds it as initially I was expecting to hit at least $222 level (-32.8%) after the run. If the stock doesn’t break below today the chart will be really bullish. Furthermore even small not so significant news next week may send the stock to the next high around 245. By the way I have the feeling that a lot of new people are jumping in, buying TSLA after the patent announcement.
I wouldn't count on the charts today. I noticed someone has been playing with the prices on both sides over the past several days. Volume has been low enough to do it.
I also saw few strange moves yesterday but I do not think they are strong enough to overcome the market and give the direction. Also I think there are many technical traders how do not look even the news feed they are just trading the charts, also they trade with higher volumes as they are only seeking short term profit with high margin. When they see the good technical indications for buy they will buy the stock regardless of the fundamentals, even if the valuation of tesla is 100B.
In my understanding bots and high frequency traders are only amplifying the overall sentiment. Even if they are able to move the price in different direction this is only in a short term.
Nevertheless I do see forming of momentum in TSLA once again. Tesla proved that can surprise not only the market but even us. If they are able to produce some more news soon the price will go once again to the roof.
In my understanding bots and high frequency traders are only amplifying the overall sentiment. Even if they are able to move the price in different direction this is only in a short term.
Nevertheless I do see forming of momentum in TSLA once again. Tesla proved that can surprise not only the market but even us. If they are able to produce some more news soon the price will go once again to the roof.
This should do the trick, as well as emplace AWD SUVs where they actually are a preferable vehicle to a luxury sedan:
1. ABS[Latitude].
And in order to keep those pesky Norwegians at bay, we can further refine that to
2. ABS[Lat+Long].
:tongue:
Sitting on pre-orders for several years like the MX? (too soon?
Lowering the pre-order price does not work, as you either have to partially refund or really piss off early reservation holders. Honestly all things considered, setting a reasonable price like $2k and having a lot of preorders is fine. Customers wouldn't blame them if they have 300k pre-orders and it takes till 2018 to get to your spot in line.. in fact as I assume the queue will only grow, makes them treasure their reservation moree.
I could see reservation prices levied by production window.
2017: $5000
2018: $2500
2019: $1000
That way you could still have a large demand and have the most committed people at the front of the line.
RationalOptimist
Member
Can't see Elon doing that. Would be perceived as the rich buying their way to the front of the line. Exactly what he'd want to avoid for his mass market car. Anyways... all of this at least a year premature. We know almost nothing of the car yet, and allowing pre-orders has to be at least 12 months away, probably more.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I don't see issue of rush to reserve. Sure many will but if you start taking reservation over a year before production starts many will wait to place deposit. After burst would guess 20 to 40 thousand first week it will slow until closer to production
With a modest gain on Friday and TSLA's correction after huge gain turned into horizontal movement, we're set for a nice pop Monday morning with the "Monday morning effect", particularly if some good news or commentary comes out this weekend.
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