Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[AlMc]

P. Santos, of SA fame, is at it again which may be contributing some to the small downturn today. The title of his newest article indicates a deep decline in Norwegian deliveries Q over Q and still fails to see that it is total deliveries that matter for a supply constrained company, not changes in deliveries in any particular region or country. I did not post the link as it just puts more money in his pocket with each 'hit'.
Curt is taking on his arguments quite well.

oops: Chicken types faster than I!!! :wink:

 

[jhm]

Call it the Paul Santos Big Dummy Discount good through next earnings report.

 

[TSLAopt]

Down on another santos seeking alpha article claims Norwegian sales down 47 % last month secondary to decreased demand! his constant theme for a year. Ignores increased wait time for car and production limitation with more cars going to England and china. He always claims not to be short and can't help but wonder why he isn't if he believes his own FUD

if anyone is selling on that silly article then those sellers do not understand the company and business very well and are mainly momentum traders/investors that are ready to get out at any FUD spread. This just helps strengthen our base if anything by getting rid of these weak longs now instead of later.
However, todays movement I believe is just from normal consolidation and would happen even without that article. We just rose from a 205 base to 240 in a couple weeks so I think this is healthy consolidation to help create a new base before our next leg up.
when that will be? I will guess it will be when the Factory opens back up later in the month and it becomes evident that production is really ramping up to 1000 week+ (From a 2nd line and/or major enhancement to the first line)

 

[ClownMouth]

if anyone is selling on that silly article then those sellers do not understand the company and business very well and are mainly momentum traders/investors that are ready to get out at any FUD spread. This just helps strengthen our base if anything by getting rid of these weak longs now instead of later.
However, todays movement I believe is just from normal consolidation and would happen even without that article. We just rose from a 205 base to 240 in a couple weeks so I think this is healthy consolidation to help create a new base before our next leg up.
when that will be? I will guess it will be when the Factory opens back up later in the month and it becomes evident that production is really ramping up to 1000 week+ (From a 2nd line and/or major enhancement to the first line)

Seems to me there are a few possible catalysts for our next leg up. Factory opening up at 1000+ per week, GF groundbreaking, any kind of announcement on TSLA/BMW/Nissan/etc reaching standard protocol for charging, and possibly whisper of Q2 deliveries being closer to 8,000 than 7,500 (I don't have these numbers but it seems even recent bear articles thought Q2 deliveries would be met with 1,000 from China and we're closer to 1,500 apparently). Elon's twitter (not the best gauge, I admit) has been quiet lately after a string of activity. Might just be overly optimistic, but when weeks go by without any real news/announcements it makes me excited that they are getting closer to the NEXT announcement(s).

 

[Curt Renz]

Seems to me there are a few possible catalysts for our next leg up. Factory opening up at 1000+ per week, GF groundbreaking, any kind of announcement on TSLA/BMW/Nissan/etc reaching standard protocol for charging, and possibly whisper of Q2 deliveries being closer to 8,000 than 7,500 (I don't have these numbers but it seems even recent bear articles thought Q2 deliveries would be met with 1,000 from China and we're closer to 1,500 apparently). Elon's twitter (not the best gauge, I admit) has been quiet lately after a string of activity. Might just be overly optimistic, but when weeks go by without any real news/announcements it makes me excited that they are getting closer to the NEXT announcement(s).

In response to a question during the May 7 conference call about groundbreaking for a Gigafactory, Elon answered in a less than firm tone,“…probably next month.” I did not look upon that as a June 30 deadline set in stone, but some people took it that way. He then said that a second groundbreaking would follow a month or two later, and there may even be a third. The announcement regarding which would be the first site to move into a full construction phase will be made later this year.

The company has been negotiating for concessions from several states hoping to contain a Gigafactory. Such gamesmanship does not follow precise schedules. I would have been surprised if groundbreaking began during this holiday shortened week. But the market may be getting impatient, and that could account for today’s pullback. However, I would not be surprised if a groundbreaking commences shortly after the upcoming holiday weekend. That could inspire an upward jolt to the share price.

 

[sleepyhead]

Paolo Santos has absolutely no moving power on a stock such as TSLA. Absolutely none.

The stock is down for other reasons than his article. I don't know what the reason is, but I don't have time to research either. Most likely there is no reason and people are simply taking profits. TSLA has gone up over 35% in the past month or two for no reason and is running a little hot. A pull back was bound to happen at any time for no apparent reason. No buyers left here, so there is nothing but selling pressure after the stock failed to break out above $240 for the past week.

TSLA was looking a little toppy over the past week.

 

[joefee]

I think production numbers are a better metric than deliveries right now:

1. Since the company does not give us real time delivery data but owners do

2. Until there are factories in Europe and Asia (5yrs?) cars have to be shipped which delays reporting as a limited number of cars are shifted around the world to fend off long wait times.

Also, variations of 1000 deliveries (eg 7000-8000 for Q2) are immaterial for the long term growth story which remains intact.

I would view any further weakness a long term buying opportunity.

 

[MikeC]

In response to a question during the May 7 conference call about groundbreaking for a Gigafactory, Elon answered in a less than firm tone,“…probably next month.” I did not look upon that as a June 30 deadline set in stone, but some people took it that way. He then said that a second groundbreaking would follow a month or two later, and there may even be a third. The announcement regarding which would be the first site to move into a full construction phase will be made later this year.

The company has been negotiating for concessions from several states hoping to contain a Gigafactory. Such gamesmanship does not follow precise schedules. I would have been surprised if groundbreaking began during this holiday shortened week. But the market may be getting impatient, and that could account for today’s pullback. However, I would not be surprised if a groundbreaking commences shortly after the upcoming holiday weekend. That could inspire an upward jolt to the share price.

JB also said they would break ground "in a few weeks" in late May. I think it's possible they may already have started but don't consider moving dirt around worthy of a press release.

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Apparently Zacks Downgraded TSLA to $218/share today. Tesla Motors Analyst Ratings, Earnings, Dividends and Insider Trades | $TSLA | NASDAQ:TSLA | Analyst Ratings Network


July 19th $280 Calls are just 33 cents...... I might play some lottery tomorrow if it goes down any more. Too good to pass up with Holiday weekend, and no news in June.

 

[Curt Renz]

JB also said they would break ground "in a few weeks" in late May. I think it's possible they may already have started but don't consider moving dirt around worthy of a press release.

You may be right. It might require someone noticing ground being prepared and deducing ownership by Tesla Motors. If that were to reach the local media, then the “announcement” could come in the form of an answer to a question.

 

[mershaw2001]

Down on another santos seeking alpha article claims Norwegian sales down 47 % last month secondary to decreased demand! his constant theme for a year. Ignores increased wait time for car and production limitation with more cars going to England and china. He always claims not to be short and can't help but wonder why he isn't if he believes his own FUD

he is prob at home feeling all proud, "look mom, look what I did, I took it down 10 dollars!"

 

[v12 to 12v]

You may be right. It might require someone noticing ground being prepared and deducing ownership by Tesla Motors. If that were to reach the local media, then the “announcement” could come in the form of an answer to a question.

Remember the days of the golden shovel ceremonies and the first scoop of dirt moved by a company rep and the local mayor?
Maybe pomp and circumstance is in the works.

Although, California throwing their hat in the ring at the last minute could have impacted the process. No word from partners either that I have heard.

 

[Hogfighter]

Apparently Zacks Downgraded TSLA to $218/share today. Tesla Motors Analyst Ratings, Earnings, Dividends and Insider Trades | $TSLA | NASDAQ:TSLA | Analyst Ratings Network


July 19th $280 Calls are just 33 cents...... I might play some lottery tomorrow if it goes down any more. Too good to pass up with Holiday weekend, and no news in June.

This is the best explanation. Paul Santo is incapable of comprehending logic, much less moving markets. The stock got a little ahead of itself, and momentum is swinging the other way. It looks as if another buying opportunity is here, with the GF announcement imminent.

 

[uselesslogin]

Apparently Zacks Downgraded TSLA to $218/share today. Tesla Motors Analyst Ratings, Earnings, Dividends and Insider Trades | $TSLA | NASDAQ:TSLA | Analyst Ratings Network


July 19th $280 Calls are just 33 cents...... I might play some lottery tomorrow if it goes down any more. Too good to pass up with Holiday weekend, and no news in June.

Zacks Downgrades Tesla Motors to Underperform (TSLA) | Ticker Report
A bit more info in this link. The arguments there are not as bad as the SA article.

 

[Hogfighter]

Zacks Downgrades Tesla Motors to Underperform (TSLA) | Ticker Report
A bit more info in this link. The arguments there are not as bad as the SA article.

TSLA investors have to get accustomed to GAAP earnings losses for the foreseeable future. Revenue growth and gross margins are the real story. Does anyone seriously want TSLA to stop growth, show a profit, and issue dividends? The bullet points in this article are not new, nor do they detract from the continuing story. It's a buying opportunity, IMHO.

 

[Curt Renz]

It appears that weak longs with stop loss limits in the vicinity of $230 may have been targeted today by hedge fund bots. That can produce a cascading domino effect. Once that subsides, an opportunity could arise.

 

[DaveT]

I've noticed TSLA and FB have moved in similar directions over the past 3 months, although not perfectly together still the general direction of the moves are similar. Here's the TSLA and FB over the past 3 months.

 

[pGo]

TD says the LG Chem battery plant in China may be the reason.

 

[sleepyhead]

TD says the LG Chem battery plant in China may be the reason.

This could be it.

Zack's research has absolutely no power to move stocks either. Their research is garbage and written by computer algorithms.

Zack's has been a good contrarian indicator if anything, and stocks have tended to do the exact opposite of what Zack's would recommend.

 

[Curt Renz]

TD says the LG Chem battery plant in China may be the reason.

Indeed, it could. To counteract that news, Elon needs to soon announce a Gigafactory groundbreaking.

This could be it.

Zack's research has absolutely no power to move stocks either. Their research is garbage and written by computer algorithms.

Zack's has been a good contrarian indicator if anything, and stocks have tended to do the exact opposite of what Zack's would recommend.

How true. Zacks bounces around in its opinion of TSLA. They almost always switch at the wrong time.