Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[hockeythug]

Analyst is stunned by the answer. haha

 

[Bgarret]

I'm confused how they are saying "production will exceed deliveries" in Q4 when they have to deliver at least 13K to hit their target, and at 1K/week they will only be able 12K in Q4.

I think it means they will have 3-4000 they will produce in September that will be delivered in Q4. Sequence late Q3 production to Asia and Europe and end of Q4 production to US. I'm betting they will beat Q3 fairly handily.

 

[hershey101]

EM - I'd be disappointed if it takes 10 years to reach a cost of $100/kWh per pack.

Stupid question, but what's the cost for the Model S? $500/kWh?

 

[hobbes]

Thanks. GF will probably have new battery chemistry and 10% longer, 10% wider cell size.

Hm, if its 10% longer and the energy density goes up 10%, a pack of the same size (area) would carry 20% more energy. Model 3 is expected to be 20% smaller than Model S... It should get a lower kWh/mile also (because it is smaller)- so it should be possible to build the 3 with the same or even greater range than the S, not?

 

[austinEV]

goodbye 18650 cell, hello 20715

r	h	volume
18	650	661619	V=pi*r^2*h
20	715	898495
		35.8%

 

[Bgarret]

Elon basically just said the internal combustion engine is doomed. Scoreboard.

 

[JRP3]

Stupid question, but what's the cost for the Model S? $500/kWh?

Probably closer to $200

 

[Bgarret]

Wondering if some of the "cards" the aren't showing vis a vis Capex are ZEV.

 

[hobbes]

goodbye 18650 cell, hello 20715

r	h	volume
18	650	661619	V=pi*r^2*h
20	715	898495
		35.8%

That is per cell - but for the larger diameter cells you get less of them into the pack, so the diameter doesn´t help for the range. The length does help carry more energy but it does make the car heavier.

 

[Cattledog]

EM - In the past people have gotten used to us showing all our cards. We're not showing all our cards.

They are really having fun with this. Going from 600 cars/week to 1,000 cars/week is so not the issue that creates TSLA's long-term value. Sure, gotta run the factory, but that's just turning the lights on for these guys compared to the overall vision.

 

[hershey101]

Probably closer to $200

Oh... Okay... I thought the cost of the pack was ~35K for 85kWh or ~$400/kWh.... If it's only $200, then I would gladly pay an extra 15K to have my car go 500 miles instead of 250.

 

[Cattledog]

Elon basically just said the internal combustion engine is doomed. Scoreboard.

Yup.

EM - We can drive demand up at will.

EM - Sales/sf on our stores - our sales/sf are double that of Apple's.

 

[JRP3]

"We can drive demand up at will" :biggrin:

 

[austinEV]

about $20k for a battery back.

Everything you ever wanted to know, everyone read this thread:
Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

 

[JRP3]

Oh... Okay... I thought the cost of the pack was ~35K for 85kWh or ~$400/kWh.... If it's only $200, then I would gladly pay an extra 15K to have my car go 500 miles instead of 250.

I'm talking Tesla's cost. Retail cost difference between the 60 and 85, minus included SC access and tire/wheel upgrade works out to $280/kWh.

 

[hockeythug]

Don't see people buying $100k computers at Apple stores.

 

[Cattledog]

EM - Capex and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there's a lot of stuff you don't know about.

Elon brought a full suitcase of mojo today.

 

[Bgarret]

You just want them to say John (from Merrill/B of A)you are an idiot. You are wrong about China...wrong about the Model S....and wrong about Tesla....good luck in your next career.

 

[Cattledog]

EM - We're going to be at it until our car is 10x better than any other car on the road (re: servicing).

 

[RobStark]

I'm talking Tesla's cost. Retail cost difference between the 60 and 85, minus included SC access and tire/wheel upgrade works out to $280/kWh.

There is also a 362 hp motor in the S 85 vs 302 hp motor in the S 60.
Unlimited miles 8 year warranty vs 125k mile or 8 year warranty which ever comes first S 60 warranty.