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Zzzz...
Member
I still amazed how Tesla managed to raise 2 billion on that day, perfectly catching peak price/ATH.
It's well coordinated between Elon and MS. To some sense, Elon is the biggest market maker behide TSLA.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Twice tesla has done secondary offerings. Carefully managed price with continued tweets prerelease data etc. once done each time held price for week or so then dropped significantly. This is not a guarantee of the future but it would have to be a consideration if another secondary done. Maybe buy puts after it or sell covered calls
CyberDutchie
Active Member
A secondary offer paired with an announcement to build a second Giga Factory at the same time as the first, to satisfy increasing demand for their products will surely push the price up further versus a significant drop IMO.
I definitely agree. I think they still have a lot of cash in the bank though, so it's not going to happen in the near term. But once Tesla hits their 100k production run rate by end of next year, they will be a different company (in terms of revenue, margin, etc). It might be a good idea at that time (late 2015 to late 2016) to announce a secondary and plans for a second gigafactory and second car factory... in China.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
The previous bubble and the subsequent crash caused the stock to rise past the 161% retracement. Which sits at the $260 level.
$319 is the 161%fib retracement of the current bubble crash cycle AND at the same time represent the 291% retracement of the previous bubble. I think we are headed there and will realize the price in Q3. My guess is There will be media events linked to it as Goldman advises Elon on the timing to best take advantage of the technicals. What will most likely happen in my point of view, is that the events will begin before the price pierces $300 to take advantage of the first time crossing rise. The excuses used to raise the money will be to start a factory in China.
To clarify, are you saying you think Tesla's going to raise a secondary in this quarter?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
My projection is for after Q3 release. But really, the technicals only says once it approaches 300 for the piercing. So for this one, I am not watching the time, but rather the price.
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Ah just realized in my first post I said in Q3. Sorry, I am a bit jet lagged. By Q3 I sort of included anytime frome up and including after Q3 earnings release.
Why would Tesla raise another secondary so soon when they've got $2.7 billion in the bank?
This is an interesting thought. I was wondering what is the real reason that TM over a sudden gave specific delivery rate projection six quarters into the future (100K), for the first time ever, as far as I can remember. It might make sense in the context of your speculation: next will come guidance on demand exceeding this newly developed manufacturing capacity. At that point it will not make sense to take further space in Fremont for the additional Model S/X production, as remaining space might not be adequate to accommodate planned Model III production goals. Building of the second factory (in China or any other place) would be a logical announcement to make at that time...
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Expansion. Anything that can speed up electric car adoption is worth raising money for in Elon's mind. Including another 5B to build out production in China or anohter 5B for the second or 3rd giga factory.
I don't think it makes sense to start talking about building a 2nd gigafactory when they haven't even picked a location for the first let alone started building. I'd hope that they'd want to build out the first, which would take care of battery supply issues for Model 3 launch, and then learn from that experience to build an even better 2nd and 3rd gigafactory. This is such a new project where it doesn't make sense to start talking about building multiple GF's if you haven't even started building one yet.
A factory in China, however, is a different story.
A factory in China, however, is a different story.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Plus... Elon is a big believer in not using up a bunch of energy transporting things around to their destination, and this includes finished cars on boats as well as raw materials going to the battery factory.
Therefore, the moment it makes sense for battery+car production to begin in China (world's largest car market), it will.
The Chinese Government will likely provide a lot of cooperation, because:
Tesla cars will help solve their pollution problems
Cars manufactured in China are good for jobs & morale there (vs. importing Mercedes, BMWs etc.)
Will use as much Chinese raw materials as possible, e.g. Chinese aluminium for the car, all the various other elements for the batteries etc.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I remember when they were thinking of going to china, Musk commented on how cheap it was to ship cars to china. All the containers were going back empty because of the trade imbalance. So not much cost in terms of money or energy to ship there. The real reason is tariffs and benefits to producing locally
Without knowing anything other than what I read on TMC (!), perhaps the settlement of the recent trademark dispute, which reportedly came with some help from the Chinese government, signals that the government sees a lot of benefit to cooperating with Tesla. That 'a lot of benefit' may be in the form of ongoing discussions about a factory/Gigafactory that will mean jobs, material sales, addressing the pollution issues, signaling that China can make high quality things and not just a lot of things, etc.. I keep going back to the '100 service centers in China by the end of 2015'. That's nuts. I think when they announce the factory/Gigafactory we'll slap our foreheads and say, 'oh yeah, adding 100 service centers in 18 months (they have 6 right now) should have been the sign that a really, really big ramp up in China is coming.' But I've been wrong a lot before.
On another note, how soon until gigafactory becomes a word in standard dictionaries?
A factory in China also reduces Tesla's foreign exchange risk. If Elon expects to sell 40% of Tesla's production in China, it makes tremendous sense to build those cars in China.
Moreover, a second factory is going to have to happen sometime. Although Toyota produced 500k cars/year at the factory, it didn't produce all of the major subsystems at that factory (I believe). Looking at the factory diagrams from TMC Connect, I'd be surprised if Tesla can produce even 250k cars/year there.
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But, back on topic -- looks like TSLA is taking a little breather this morning. Catching its breath before a mid-morning climb?
Moreover, a second factory is going to have to happen sometime. Although Toyota produced 500k cars/year at the factory, it didn't produce all of the major subsystems at that factory (I believe). Looking at the factory diagrams from TMC Connect, I'd be surprised if Tesla can produce even 250k cars/year there.
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But, back on topic -- looks like TSLA is taking a little breather this morning. Catching its breath before a mid-morning climb?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
china wants Tesla's technology. That is part of why they want it so badly. Factory means that Tesla's manufacturing skills will be up for further integration into the other local factories. At the dame time, China is trying to get out of the stigma of being just a copier. If Elon can allow them A way NOT to lose face on that front. It'd help. Opening up the patent is the first step.
I am assuming that the China industry of today is stepping to be a net innovator instead of net immitAtion. Judging from the manufacturing machineries that they've came up with recently.
I am assuming that the China industry of today is stepping to be a net innovator instead of net immitAtion. Judging from the manufacturing machineries that they've came up with recently.
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