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jhm
Well-Known Member
I suspect that the way to reduce the most CO2 is to replace ICE vehicle with the worst fuel efficiency with highly efficient EVs. It's amount of fuel that is displaced, not the number of cars, that matters. Coincidentally, given CAFE standards, the the low MPG models are among the highest margin products for automakers, so this hits competitors where they are most profitable. From a consumer point of view, displacing the most inefficient vehicles creates the best TCO improvements. Once we get gas guzzlers off the road, then it will make sense to move into low margin, high efficiency segments such as small metro cars.
chickensevil
Active Member
Seems like there are two more articles that should likely be corrected:
Tesla Announces Plans to Deliver 100,000 Electric Cars in 2015 | Inhabitat - Sustainable Design Innovation, Eco Architecture, Green Building
Elon Musk's Tesla Game Plan: Pump Out 100,000 Cars Per Year by 2015 - Businessweek
The Inhabitat article is directly misinterpreting the information and is definitely worded wrong.
The business week article while not necessarily wrong, has misleading wording which could cause other people to misunderstand the figure and should likely issue a clarification.
Tesla Announces Plans to Deliver 100,000 Electric Cars in 2015 | Inhabitat - Sustainable Design Innovation, Eco Architecture, Green Building
Elon Musk's Tesla Game Plan: Pump Out 100,000 Cars Per Year by 2015 - Businessweek
The Inhabitat article is directly misinterpreting the information and is definitely worded wrong.
The business week article while not necessarily wrong, has misleading wording which could cause other people to misunderstand the figure and should likely issue a clarification.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Since Model 3 is a direct competitor to BMWs three-series, I suspect that tesla would next built a competitor to BMWs one-series. A premium compact car. This would be the next logical step downmarket.
After reaching the previous top of $240 we fell down to $215ish. So it's nice to see us breaking $240. Hopefully we can hold and it will be on a bit more volume. But what I'm really looking for is if we can break the previous ATH. We are almost there and it will be huge if we can (with some decent volume).
Can't blame you. Good luck moving forward! Al
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Dave, What are your thoughts on the jump today: China settlement; New analysts PT of $316; mini short squeeze? All of the above??
Q2 earnings (2015 guidance of 100k production run rate by end of 2015) effectively put a type of bottom in place (ie, now tough to go under $200), and it's emboldened funds/investors (both short term and long term). When a stock can't go down it tests how far it can go up. That's why on the google hangout I said I thought we'd see all-time-highs broken in the next few months.
The poor market sentiment put a brief hold in Tesla's rise after earnings, but now today sentiment's turned positive and it's allowed Tesla to continue its post-Q2 move.
Technically as well, TSLA's been consolidating in the 200-230 range for a while so has a good base to make another run.
pz1975
Active Member
Anyone else expecting some day traders to take profits and we likely close under 250?
I sold the majority of my Jan15 calls (cant call them LEAPS anymore!) between 248-250 today (250 was the trigger-point I decided on 6 weeks ago and I didn't want to get greedy like I have before hoping for more). Now I need to decide when to use the proceeds to roll into JAN16 LEAPS. I was going to do it right away but figured i would wait and see. By waiting I have time decay working for me (for once) as sideways movement or dips (which we all know will happen again at some point) will allow me to buy them in the future at lower prices than right now (not sideways if IV goes up more than time decay brings them down). I do run the risk of the stock getting away from me but that is a risk I am willing to take as 75% of my holdings are in Jan16LEAPS already so overall I would still benefit, and then would likely just wait to use the $ on Jan17 LEAPS instead in November.
I sold the majority of my Jan15 calls (cant call them LEAPS anymore!) between 248-250 today (250 was the trigger-point I decided on 6 weeks ago and I didn't want to get greedy like I have before hoping for more). Now I need to decide when to use the proceeds to roll into JAN16 LEAPS. I was going to do it right away but figured i would wait and see. By waiting I have time decay working for me (for once) as sideways movement or dips (which we all know will happen again at some point) will allow me to buy them in the future at lower prices than right now (not sideways if IV goes up more than time decay brings them down). I do run the risk of the stock getting away from me but that is a risk I am willing to take as 75% of my holdings are in Jan16LEAPS already so overall I would still benefit, and then would likely just wait to use the $ on Jan17 LEAPS instead in November.
Tesla Gets More Love From Morgan Stanley - Yahoo Finance
They got the name spelled wrong again, but if they got the rest right, this sounds very bullish to me. Almost as if Jonas has seen the alpha which was supposed to be there this week.
I've created my own price forecasts with super low, low-mid, mid-high and super high trading ranges from now until 2020. I've been hesitant on sharing the details since I'd much rather people create their own forecasts that are different than mine because everyone's assumptions are different. But I probably will eventually share the trading ranges and their calculations in the series I'm doing on my thread. I just want to lay out the foundation so people know how to use it and how to adjust it to make it their own.
But according to my own trading ranges, I see TSLA at the mid-high range right now. (btw, with a growth stock like TSLA, I think a mid-high trading range is a healthy zone.)
chickensevil
Active Member
Just to clarify your interpretation of those terms how much of a one year move would you expect if the stock was in those values assuming everything was going swimmingly with Tesla?
Would the interpretation be something like:
Super high -> hold wait for a pull back
Mid - high -> buy/hold
low - mid -> buy
super low -> buy like crazy
Again, that is assuming that what is causing the stock to be in those values is not long term related to the overall movement and goals of the company. Like when the market itself goes down but Tesla is great, or when someone blows some FUD out that causes the stock to take a dip, or maybe even when short term guidance seems to be making the price drop, but long term the overall path is still good/positive.
So, this is how I approach it with my long-term investments (short-term trading is vastly more complicated):
Super high range - hold stock
Mid-high range - hold stock
Low-mid range - buy stock. if approaches super low range, buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
Super low range - buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
This would apply for a taxable account. In a tax-deferred account, things are vastly different because taxes are deferred. In a tax-deferred account, I would consider the following:
Super high range - hold stock (if range goes over super-high range, then start selling stock to raise cash for correction)
Mid-high range - hold stock and LEAPs (if LEAPs purchased in low range and still has around 1 year left. if less than 1 year left, convert to stock.)
Low-mid range - buy stock. if approaches super low range, buy LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
Super low range - sell stock, buy all LEAPs (preferably 1.5-2 years out)
But again, there's a lot of assumptions here. First, the long-term story of the company remains unchanged and has super growth potential. Second, one's price forecasts are accurate.
Regarding price forecast, for the super low range I calculate what a bargain investor like Warren Buffet would pay for Tesla in a time when the long-term story is in tact but the sentiment has turned extremely poor. This is the super low range and I don't expect it to enter this range for long because deep-pocketed bargain investors will sweep up the stock at this price. This is why I was able to recommend buying TSLA so strongly sub $135 last November since it was approaching super low trading range but the long-term story was in tact (I strongly believed they would overcome the fire issues).
For the super high range I calculate at what point will lots of institutions sell their TSLA holdings because the stock price is too high to justify (ie., the multiple of future projected potential earnings is just way too high for new institutional buyers to come in). In other words, the super high range is when TSLA doesn't make sense in terms of the multiples that investors are giving. Oftentimes, this multiple is roughly about double that of what the bargain investor would pay for potential earnings. I use "potential earnings" as the profit the company would have if they stopped invested and that money was turned into profit instead. Take that profit number 1-2 years out or so (that's what is visible to most investors) and figure a bargain investor would give 15-20x multiple, while the enthusiastic investor (hyped up) will give 35-40x multiple. This establishes the super low range and the super high range. Then, you can fill out the low-mid and the mid-high ranges from that.
Anyway, I probably need to go on in more detail for all this to make sense since there's a lot of numbers involved. But I think my point is that I believe that you can actually calculate the trading ranges investors are willing to give (albeit it takes a lot of numbers/calculations/etc), and those ranges can help make investment decisions.
IBD Leaderboard comment today
Among the highlights, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) cleared a cup-shaped base, rising more than 4%. Volume at the close was 68% above average, a strong level for the breakout and especially for a large-cap play. Tesla is now nearly 2% above a 244.59 buy point, so it's still in buy range.
Among the highlights, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) cleared a cup-shaped base, rising more than 4%. Volume at the close was 68% above average, a strong level for the breakout and especially for a large-cap play. Tesla is now nearly 2% above a 244.59 buy point, so it's still in buy range.
Moderator's Note
The very interesting but lengthy discussions on LEAPs as stock replacement is now over here: Advanced TSLA Options Trading
The very interesting but lengthy discussions on LEAPs as stock replacement is now over here: Advanced TSLA Options Trading
I was thinking the same today and because of this resisted the urge to sell.
What is even more interesting is that a break-out of this "1 month" cup (smaller rectangle below) could possibly take us right into the area of the breakout for the "5+ month" cup so there is potential for yet bigger movement this/next week. The large cup is not as well defined as a smaller one, but I still think that we can possibly break through the ATH next week...
DaveT,
A big THANK YOU for sharing your long-term investing methodology. Most of my Tesla investing is tax-deferred, and I have been moving towards a philosophy similar to what you just stated. Just wish I could have read this post a year ago. Oh well, plenty of opportunities still ahead.
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