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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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My earlier prediction was they'd come out first with the super car (the P85++, so to speak), AWD, and VERY very pricey (I'll put a guess out there of around $200k). That won't siphon off any X sales, will garner huge publicity for Tesla - and then expect to see the regular version launched around the same time as the Model X, near the end of the year.

I would not only be surprised if they did a supercar P85++, but frankly disappointed. Tesla had its day in the sun with a 1%er car, it was called the Roadster. More and more people I talk to are now familiar with the Tesla brand, but they remain grumpy because they view it as a rich person's car, and they tell me, they won't take Tesla seriously until the Gen III, which is so far away beyond the time horizon, they don't believe Tesla is an affordable brand.

To come out with an even higher-end Model S in 2014 would only confirm the impression many people have that Tesla is like Porsche or Maserati or Ferrari: a premium performance brand.

The Model X, which I suspect will be priced starting in the low 80s for the base model, is a necessary step for Tesla, don't get me wrong, but doesn't win over any of the millions of folks who are staying away until Gen III if and when it ever comes.
 
My earlier prediction was they'd come out first with the super car (the P85++, so to speak), AWD, and VERY very pricey (I'll put a guess out there of around $200k). That won't siphon off any X sales, will garner huge publicity for Tesla - and then expect to see the regular version launched around the same time as the Model X, near the end of the year.

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But to be clear, I don't think that has anything to do with the employee meeting next week. I'd expect the 'Super P85+ AWD' to be in Q2.

I hope it's not that pricy. I was thinking another $10k above the P+.

However if something else has to be done with the batteries to pull the current required it could be more than that. Although a 100kw battery might meet the current draw that would be required. Bigger battery would probably add another $10k too, taking us to $145ish for a fully decked out car.
 
I hope it's not that pricy. I was thinking another $10k above the P+.

However if something else has to be done with the batteries to pull the current required it could be more than that. Although a 100kw battery might meet the current draw that would be required. Bigger battery would probably add another $10k too, taking us to $145ish for a fully decked out car.

An 85 kWh system can dump faster than 5C. It is a matter of whether the electric motor is designed for more hp and the speed controller can take it. 400hp is 310KW. It is only dumping at 4C. I think the 85 kWh is not the limiting factor. The right design for AWD may be to use a 200hp front motor and 300hp rear. If they base it off the current 400hp rear and add power up front of say 150hp, you increase power and get the desired result but might be out of balance. An additional 400hp added up front would be ridiculous.

it can be a "One dump wonder" for red light grins, however, when some have taken their MS to the race track, they got overheating warnings after a few laps, correct?
 
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My earlier prediction was they'd come out first with the super car (the P85++, so to speak), AWD, and VERY very pricey (I'll put a guess out there of around $200k).

While I know a number of people on TMC will jump at this car at this price, I hope that The Shadows prediction/estimation of $145K would be what we would see. If TM could keep the price there it will compete with the ultra performance European cars and be, in many cases, half the price.
 
To come out with an even higher-end Model S in 2014 would only confirm the impression many people have that Tesla is like Porsche or Maserati or Ferrari: a premium performance brand.

What's wrong with Tesla being a premium performance brand? IMO this is what we want.

A premium performance brand can produce not only the P85++ but can also produce the cheap Model E at a high level of quality. This is what people is looking for: high quality.
 
What's wrong with Tesla being a premium performance brand? IMO this is what we want.

A premium performance brand can produce not only the P85++ but can also produce the cheap Model E at a high level of quality. This is what people is looking for: high quality.

That is what we want, however we also want the wide spread adoption of EV's, which is Elon's #1 goal.
 
What is wrong with it, Raffy, in my opinion, is that it runs counter to what Mr Musk put forth in his "Top Secret Plan" detailing what Tesla Motor's mission is.

If I can summarize, the objective is to bring to the world in as efficient a manner possible the full electrification of the automotive industry. The Roadster and the Model S have been high-profile, high-margin introductions, both representing well-thought-out steps that have served the dual purposes of bringing to the world's attention excellent quality electric cars AND funding a newborn company with the capital needed to proceed to the next levels (or providing the firm with access to such funding, which is at least as important).

So, while I agree that a superduperpoppeduphoppedup Model S: AWD, 0-60 in aught-point-nothing-flat and so on could command a true premium price and there are any number of members of this forum who not only have the wherewithal to put one or two of those babies in their garages, and the sales of same most certainly could continue to command very handsome margins indeed....

...I also argue that such a tact would likely to represent a stumbling block, NOT a step forward, in meeting TMInc's stated goal. The sooner Tesla can bring out a Volks Wagen, the sooner the "Top Secret Plan" will come to fruition. There already is, most especially in the USofA, a considerable and ugly attitude that Roadsters and Model Ss are elitist toys and, in their iconoclastic engine-less way, are contemptuous in a fashion that no Ferrari, Bentley, Lamborghini or Bugatti can evoke.

Now, this is not to say that erasing such prejudices should take precedence over all other concerns, but I will posit that minimizing it to the point of negligibility is one of several valid tasks. For me, then, a competent Model X - a decent crossover that competes with other SUV-type alternatives - is the way to go. I have argued elsewhere that a truly courageous step would be to step into the lions' den and offer a full-size pickup truck as soon as possible. If you would like to read in that that I myself find a pickup more appealing than a supercar...I plead guilty, but I also very strongly believe I am correct.

(On edit: written while Shadows was responding to Raffy)
 
Does Tesla really need to boost it's image?

Actually I think it's a wise move to corner the high end of the market for Tesla right now since they're unable to produce a mass market sub-$40k car right now. Elon has mentioned GenIII for late 2016 or 2017 release, so to be realistic it's about 3 years of waiting. In the meantime, Tesla can expand it's brand and image by going into the supercar market with the Super P85+ AWD (as Bonnie called it). But it's really a different market than the standard or even P85 market. The supercar market is very limited but is the drool of many car enthusiasts. So, if the Super P85+ AWD can really compete with other supercars and exceed them, then this will be a big accomplishment for Tesla. It really does boost/expand Tesla's image. I think it will just drum up more demand for the Model S base models, Model X, and the upcoming GenIII.
 
Have you guys thought of that Tesla might have have found out that Tesla is pretty popular in cold places like Norway and that might be a reason for AWD? If Tesla listen to their consumers and adapt we should all be glad. With AWD I bet it would be pretty popular in Germany to.
 
Some of you guys are over thinking this AWD thing. Once it is introduced it will be available as an up charge on the regular 85 and maybe 60's for those in the cold weather climates for an extra $5k - $10k. But since you have the technology developed why stop there. You can also introduce this supercar that goes 0-60 in 3.2s for under $200k and show the rest of the world that electric cars are that much better than ICE.

I agree with DaveT here that a supercar would be a great addition to the portfolio. Since we are supply constrained, it wouldn't hurt to sell 1,000 of these supercars in 2014 with 40%-50% gross margins, i.e. $100k per car or $100m of pre-tax profit on just 1,000 cars.

There is really no downside to introducing a supercar. It will boost the EV image when a 5,000 lb Model S goes neck and neck with a Nissan GTR at a drag racing event.
 
If TM is battery constrained and seeking to maximize profit margins to bankroll enough cash to build a Giga factory that can then supply enough batteries, at a more competitive price, so that it can afford to produce the E model in the hundreds of thousands, after it has established a brand image that speaks to the excellent quality of all its products, that is what I want to see it do with the limited supply of batteries it will have for the next 12-24 months.

While I will not be able/willing to spend 200K on the super P++, the profit margin, if at 25% plus would go a long way to financing Elon's dream.


Edit; Was typing before Sleepy's post....Yea..What he said:biggrin:
 
I believe Elon did say that EVs will compete with or outdo ICE supercars at some point. However, I don't see this supercar coming anytime soon. If Elon is right about the battery supply constraint being eased after Q2, I think they will rather just focus on building as many MS and MX as they can later this year. Sure, you can add AWD and maybe even an extra motor, but I think a real supercar would need a redesigned transmission that makes good use of that power, as well as upgrades to the handling, such as torque vectoring like in the Mercedes SLS AMG. This is a market segment that I think Tesla will eventually want to enter, but I don't see it happening this year. And yes, it would boost their image (and EVs in general) if they can produce a successful supercar. Many people still think EVs are slow and boring cars.
 
@772

IMO Torque vectoring should be implemented on the Tesla AWD System both for the Super AWD Model S and for the normal AWD Model S and Model X. That's why in a previous post I said that the Tesla AWD System, having 2 engines rather than 4, should have some revolutionary features.
 
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Back to some other short term talk items.

What do we all expect in Jan 2014 as positive catalysts:

1. Clean bill of health from NHTSB

2. Tesla friendly analysts predictions: Where are you Andrea James? DB?

3. Introduction of 'near finished' or 'finished' model X at Detroit auto show

4. Leak about Chinese demand

5. Introduction of AWD capability of model S

Yes/No?
 
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