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Say what you will about me but I'm in and out of stocks to maximize my profits. I make no claims that technical analysis is perfect in anyway but it's a tool that investors and traders can use to know when to be in and get out.
As for triumph-in-the-face-of-adversity, where's that today when TSLA is selling off with the rest of the market? :tongue:
Anyway, here's a chart as of this morning. TSLA ran into resistance at around 182 when it hit an underlying trend line yesterday. I was really expecting it to test out the resistance and go up to 182 today but that's obviously not happening. Instead, it's selling off a bit. I'm guessing it's a combination of reacting to the rest of the market and profit taking. What ever the case, I expect TSLA to stay within the current channel, between the green and orange lines with a range of 171.50-183 for the next few days. TSLA has reached overbought and pullbacks are a natural part of a stock's movements, just look at these as buying opportunities unless something more catastrophic happens.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-tesla-china-idUSBREA0N0O720140124
(bold type is my emphasis)
(Reuters) - U.S. electric carmaker Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA.O)expects its China sales to contribute one third of global sales growth this year, a senior executive said, adding that a trademark issue stalling full-entry into China had been resolved.
Veronica Wu, vice president of Tesla's China operations, told Reuters the Palo Alto, California-based company planned to open stores in 10-12 Chinese cities by the end of 2014, including its flagship store in Beijing that opened late last year.
Wu, the 43-year-old executive who jumped ship to Tesla from Apple's China unit at the end of last year, said Tesla China had a "very aggressive growth objective".
She said the unit was aiming to contribute "30 to 35 percent" of Tesla's overall global sales growth targeted for 2014.
Wu said the company aimed to double overall total sales this year. She put global sales at 23,000 to 24,000 last year. "I have my work cut out for me," Wu said in an interview. "But I am pretty confident."
Wu discussed Tesla's plans for its Chinese sales and marketing operations at Tesla's flagship store inside an upscale shopping mall in Beijing a day after announcing its pricing strategy.
Tesla said on Thursday that a version of the Tesla Model S, a sleek all-electric battery car which sells for $81,070 in the United States, would retail for 734,000 yuan ($121,300) in China after shipping costs and import duty and other taxes. The company was referring to a Model S with an 85 kilowatt-hour battery pack.
The Beijing-born executive, who worked for Apple's China unit in Beijing from 2006 until she joined Tesla in December, said that given the Tesla car's "quality," the Model S offered "great value".
Wu applauded Beijing's support for electric and plug-in electric hybrid cars.
She said Tesla had also resolved a trademark issue that had long prevented the company from using "Te Si La" - the Chinese name best known among Chinese consumers, which Tesla wanted to use in China.
"We went to court and we won," she said. "The court has given use right to use the name, which is why you see the Chinese name in our store now."
The name had been registered by a local businessman who had refused to give up the trademark. The U.S. company had started offering its popular Model S sedans in China, but with no Chinese language name.
Wu said Tesla had no plans to start local production of its cars in China, at least for the time being.
"Right now we are not considering (that) as yet," the Tesla China chief said.
"The most important task right now, now that we have announced our pricing strategy, is to focus on getting the right car and making sure we have the right service network, and making sure the Chinese customer is happy," she said. "Happy customers are the best advocate of your product, right?"
Update: Reuters removed the reference to the court decision in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/us-tesla-china-idUSBREA0O04J20140125
Update 2: Reuters removed reference to double sales in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/tesla-china-idUSL3N0KY34K20140125
(bold type is my emphasis)
(Reuters) - U.S. electric carmaker Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA.O)expects its China sales to contribute one third of global sales growth this year, a senior executive said, adding that a trademark issue stalling full-entry into China had been resolved.
Veronica Wu, vice president of Tesla's China operations, told Reuters the Palo Alto, California-based company planned to open stores in 10-12 Chinese cities by the end of 2014, including its flagship store in Beijing that opened late last year.
Wu, the 43-year-old executive who jumped ship to Tesla from Apple's China unit at the end of last year, said Tesla China had a "very aggressive growth objective".
She said the unit was aiming to contribute "30 to 35 percent" of Tesla's overall global sales growth targeted for 2014.
Wu said the company aimed to double overall total sales this year. She put global sales at 23,000 to 24,000 last year. "I have my work cut out for me," Wu said in an interview. "But I am pretty confident."
Wu discussed Tesla's plans for its Chinese sales and marketing operations at Tesla's flagship store inside an upscale shopping mall in Beijing a day after announcing its pricing strategy.
Tesla said on Thursday that a version of the Tesla Model S, a sleek all-electric battery car which sells for $81,070 in the United States, would retail for 734,000 yuan ($121,300) in China after shipping costs and import duty and other taxes. The company was referring to a Model S with an 85 kilowatt-hour battery pack.
The Beijing-born executive, who worked for Apple's China unit in Beijing from 2006 until she joined Tesla in December, said that given the Tesla car's "quality," the Model S offered "great value".
Wu applauded Beijing's support for electric and plug-in electric hybrid cars.
She said Tesla had also resolved a trademark issue that had long prevented the company from using "Te Si La" - the Chinese name best known among Chinese consumers, which Tesla wanted to use in China.
"We went to court and we won," she said. "The court has given use right to use the name, which is why you see the Chinese name in our store now."
The name had been registered by a local businessman who had refused to give up the trademark. The U.S. company had started offering its popular Model S sedans in China, but with no Chinese language name.
Wu said Tesla had no plans to start local production of its cars in China, at least for the time being.
"Right now we are not considering (that) as yet," the Tesla China chief said.
"The most important task right now, now that we have announced our pricing strategy, is to focus on getting the right car and making sure we have the right service network, and making sure the Chinese customer is happy," she said. "Happy customers are the best advocate of your product, right?"
Update: Reuters removed the reference to the court decision in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/us-tesla-china-idUSBREA0O04J20140125
Update 2: Reuters removed reference to double sales in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/tesla-china-idUSL3N0KY34K20140125
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A few notes and questions:
1. She says global sales were 23,000-24,000. My calculations show 2014 deliveries to be 22,450 (4900, 5150, 5500, 6900). So, what does she mean by "sales"? Is this deliveries? Or orders? Or confirmed orders? Or something else?
2. If Tesla is aiming to double goal "sales" (whatever that term means) and 2014 was 23,000 (to be conservative), then 2014 global sales goal should be 46,000 (to double the 23k number from 2013). That's an additional 23,000 cars. Veronica Wu says China should account for 1/3 of that growth, so 1/3 of 23,000 additional cars sold this year will be from China or 7,666 cars. Or if they aim for an additional 24,000 "sales" this year then China should account for 8,000 "sales".
This is quite impressive because first deliveries won't start in China until end of March when Elon makes his trip to China to personally deliver those initial cars. Then, they need to ramp up shipments to China to reach their 8,000 goal by end of 2013.
3. 46,000-48,000 "sales" is quite aggressive and seems to be considered a "goal" and probably not a minimum. Note: in order to do 46,000 deliveries would need to avg 920 cars/week throughout the year, so if they started at 600 then they'd need to end the year producing 1240 cars/week (assuming a linear ramp up). 1240 cars/week seems super aggressive considering Elon Musk has said that 800 cars/week by the end of year is a minimum they're produce. So, while these "double global sales" goal seems exciting I'm hesitant to assume that they'll be able to ramp to 1240 cars/week by the end of the year. So, I'll take this goal as what it is, a goal. But to make projections, I'll choose to something more conservative (ie., like ending the year with 900 cars/week or maybe 1000 cars/week).
4. Nevertheless, it seems like this article is good news and that Tesla could confidently guide for a minimum of 35,000 cars in 2014 during Q4 ER next month.
There are multiple publiclly available bits of information that suggest that Tesla's internal production goal is about 46K, but the guidance IMO (I've been convinced of this and posted it few times) will be 40,000 cars. The official line would probably be 20-15-5K cars delivered in US-Europe-Asia.
Vgrinshpun, just wondering what are some other publicly available bits of info that suggest a 46k internal production goal?
I was thinking about pulling all of them together and posting under Q4 thread for a while now... Will try to do over the weekend.
The sources are Elon's interviews, info from Panasonic, info from CA regarding the tax breaks, etc. The article in yout post, Dave, just complements previously available data. In fact, as far as I remember, we had discussion back and forth with you about the meaning of couple of quotes from Panasonic representative. His words suggested ramp-up to 800 cars/week. My timing back then was off, as I interpreted that it should materialize by the end of 2013, but now it is clear that it will happen sometime in this quarter (Elon mentioned "substantial" increase of cars to be shipped to Germany in Q1 during his QA in Germany).
I remember Elon saying that the production rate would be approximately doubled by the end of 2014 (relative to the production rate at end of 2013) - this was in one of his video interviews in Germany in October or November; I think he actually explicitly said 1000-1200/week. I was disappointed when he then said only 800/week more recently.
If you re-listen to this interview with Elon he actually said that production will exceed 800 cars/week by the end of the year. So no contradiction with the 1000-1200 per week.:smile:
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Dave, I agree this was an encouraging conversation, but I think a decent size grain of salt would help. My understanding was that Wu joined Tesla this past December from Apple's Chinese operations (so she may spend most of her time in China). As I see it, regarding:
1. What does Wu mean? I think she means Tesla delivered about 23-24,000 cars. Actual number about 22,500. She's been with the company a month, may have heard about the intense microscope on the company in the U.S., but may have hardly experienced first hand if indeed she was living in China in 2013. 23-24,000 is a reasonable answer (under normal circumstances).
2. Double sales? This was not a quote from Wu. Maybe what she said was accurately reported, maybe not (we've seen clear quantitative information incorrectly reported repeatedly. She might have said they have a goal to double the production rate at the end of the year... or something entirely different than what got attributed to her). So, yeah, maybe the new hire let something slip a little, and Tesla is hoping to hit numbers like that, but, grain of salt here makes sense to me.
4. I very much agree with what you say here... both the kind of range guidance is likely to be in a couple of weeks, and there is the suggestion, if not bankable, to take away from this article that internally they have hopes as high as 45K.
I suspect the analysts talking low 30s for 2014 realize the number will be 35K or better, but I doubt they are thinking over 40K. And for 2015, I would be quite surprised if they are not even further off the mark.
I think you guys are understanding "double sales" too literally. I seem to remember someone else from Tesla recently having been quoted on that too and similar speculation started.
They may be internally saying to their people that their goal is to double sales in 2014, but that surely does not mean exactly 2x 22,453 (or whatever the final 2013 figure is). What they may mean by that is that they sold around 20k cars in 2013 and will try to do around 40k in 2014.
I doubt the official 2014 projection will be more precise either. Maybe they'll say 40,000 as that's a nice round number, or say 38,000 to be able to overdeliver with e.g. 41358.
They may be internally saying to their people that their goal is to double sales in 2014, but that surely does not mean exactly 2x 22,453 (or whatever the final 2013 figure is). What they may mean by that is that they sold around 20k cars in 2013 and will try to do around 40k in 2014.
I doubt the official 2014 projection will be more precise either. Maybe they'll say 40,000 as that's a nice round number, or say 38,000 to be able to overdeliver with e.g. 41358.
I think the overall market might be the story suddenly. How does everyone feel about this? Is this the overdue 10% correction? Will we revisit the 200 day? Or will we pop back to the 50 which has been the trend lately?
Edit: I am referring to market indices. Tesla may overperform the indexes, but I am more concerned about the market taking a breather which would obviously influence TSLA.
Edit: I am referring to market indices. Tesla may overperform the indexes, but I am more concerned about the market taking a breather which would obviously influence TSLA.
The Fed money tap is flowing like a geyser and other "emerging market" (what the hell does that even mean anymore) macroeconomic fears seem overblown to me. I don't see any reason why this should be more than a blip / buying opportunity. I of course may be utterly wrong.
Edit: It seems that the Chinese economic statistic that sent the markets reeling is potentially "bad data" because of guess what: Chinese New Year. That's right folks, the country is hammered and dancing around instead of cranking out iCrap for Murricans, so Chinese economic indicators slump. Plausible? You bet. Trade on it? Not necessarily.
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mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
The credit gold china default doesn't seem to be as bad as i initially read it to be. Sure, first default. And sure, some people holding the financial derivative will be screwed, but that doesn't mean the bank is falling apart. I don't think the 300 point drop was due completely to that. If we were to look at the 500 points that we lost in the past 2 days
-100 loss of China growth wednesday night.
+100 europe doing well
-100 china default
-200 emerging markets problems
-200 panic on top of all that.
I don't see any one of those as critical. They all weigh on the market at the same time because we've been grooving for a while, and they all come out now.
-100 loss of China growth wednesday night.
+100 europe doing well
-100 china default
-200 emerging markets problems
-200 panic on top of all that.
I don't see any one of those as critical. They all weigh on the market at the same time because we've been grooving for a while, and they all come out now.
The thing with stocks and the market in general is that it's hard to predict these things with 100% certainty. Here's the latest TSLA chart with with the Dow superimposed for nearly the past year. You can see when TSLA is beating the market, when the market is beating TSLA, and when they seem to be inline.
As usual, my opinion is based off technicals and I doubt TSLA will be crashing hard any time soon. However, I do think we'll be seeing reasonable pullbacks here and there unless something catastrophic happens. At the moment, TSLA seems to be establishing a new channel and it's looking like we'll see it test the support of that channel within the next couple of days. TSLA has also broken out of the down channel it was in since October and I doubt we'll see it dip all the way down to the 200-day MA unless it moves all the way up to 146 in the next week or two. If TSLA does see a big pullback due to the overall market and goes below 171, I expect the support levels to be at 165 then the 100-day MA. Any lower than that will be that bottom green trend line at 146.70. What ever the case is, I think TSLA will stay comfortably above 160 going into earnings.
Definitely interesting action in the market lately. Much of this is going to be attributed to the expectation of a sell off. Let's be real the market was riding so high, anybody could've made money past year. I'm actually glad this pullback is happening (I think this should be it) because it's a reality check and part of it is pricing in the Fed's actions next week. That's the beAuty of a stock like TSLA though, we're still in the growth stage and much of the past downward pressure was people expecting it to fail.
I agree with the above post, we'll float at these levels till earnings, where stock reactions will be heavily dependent on guidance and gross margin progression. I really do hope this call gets a better reaction than Q3 and that we'll get another 5 part trilogy or something like that. Probably formal announcement of national supercharger, AWD Model S, more revenues, and selection of Giga Factory location. The dips will be due to the markets not knowing what to do... Risk on or risk off.
I agree with the above post, we'll float at these levels till earnings, where stock reactions will be heavily dependent on guidance and gross margin progression. I really do hope this call gets a better reaction than Q3 and that we'll get another 5 part trilogy or something like that. Probably formal announcement of national supercharger, AWD Model S, more revenues, and selection of Giga Factory location. The dips will be due to the markets not knowing what to do... Risk on or risk off.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Why would Tesla announce an AWD Model S at a conference call? If I were Tesla I'd make an event at factory for this inviting people there and presenting how the Model S being the best car in the world is now even better etc etc. I would never make it just a conf call item.
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