Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Johan]

TSLA wise I think it would be great if they did a limited run PD+ with whatever chemistry they can cram in there for 150-200 kWh or whatever. The car might cost even $300k or more but they would sell them quickly and it would be great for the brand. Now back in reality, I realize that such a chemistry does not exist and to get that car approved safety wise would be a huge hurdle.

 

[Curt Renz]

Sorry for my English. I am not English mother tongue. Thought that engine was synonymous of motor.

There's no need for an apology. Your English is fine. It's far better than my Italian. The two words are indeed synonymous in English. However regarding automobiles, the word motor is more often applied to the electric variety, while the word engine usually refers to the internal combustion type.

 

[dalalsid]

Maybe Tesla can do a "Worlds Greatest Drag Race" equivalent for 4 door sedans. Borrow the fastest from every manufacturer, line them up and go. They don't need to compete with the Veyrons and P1s.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 Results May Disappoint and Model X Delay Longer Than Anticipated, Analyst Says

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...r+Than+Anticipated,+Analyst+Says/9884937.html

Lump, is it possible that you displayed the negatively slanted headline in large bold font because you may be short TSLA?

Perhaps of greater interest is this final paragraph of that article:

"The analyst said while the Q3 push-out and Model X delay may disappoint some investors, they believe the recent pullback in the stock and any potential weakness on 3Q results provide a more attractive entry point. They reiterate an Outperform rating and US$300 target price."

 

[chickensevil]

Well as of 12:22 we have started a new climb and broke new daily highs into the 255+ range nearly hitting 256. Not sure what is causing the sharp rise, but I will happily take it

 

[Lump]

No Curt, I actually made the headline smaller...the original would have looked like this

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 Results May Disappoint and Model X Delay Longer Than Anticipated, Analyst Says

 

[chickensevil]

Lump, is it possible that you displayed the negatively slanted headline in bold font because you may be short TSLA?

Perhaps of greater interest is this final paragraph of that article:

"The analyst said while the Q3 push-out and Model X delay may disappoint some investors, they believe the recent pullback in the stock and any potential weakness on 3Q results provide a more attractive entry point. They reiterate an Outperform rating and US$300 target price."

No, I think it was just the way he copied and pasted the details into the post. Copy and Paste into this editor has a mind of its own sometimes... Just like how you picked up the "potential" hyperlink from the article... it happens.

I am still a little pessimistic on the Q3 results, fearing the risk of a minor miss on the numbers and I still think we will post a non-GAAP negative EPS to boot, doesn't mean I am short...

 

[Causalien]

K for knight rider mode.

 

[Curt Renz]

No Curt, I actually made the headline smaller...the original would have looked like this

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 Results May Disappoint and Model X Delay Longer Than Anticipated, Analyst Says

Does the no mean that you are not short the stock?

 

[AudubonB]

Short-term thread; long-term thoughts:
My intention is to hold the shares we have for the next four to five decades...and after that, it won't be my decision. HOWEVER....if this Veyron-beater, etc., that has been the focus of the past 2-3 pages here is indeed what we'll be seeing come 9 October, there is a very strong likelihood we'll be exiting our position far earlier. I don't take kindly to be deceived.

 

[chickensevil]

To clarify further, I think it really depends on a few things as to what will happen with the price action after the ER:

1: What is really going to be revealed on Oct 9, if this is something in-line or more amazing than the average investor expects (we are not average) It could hold the price/cause it to rise more. The more inflated the price gets as we close into ER the more risk of another drop we face.
2: Q3 ER Results. I think if we post positive and meet guidance we will likely be able to hold the price whatever it is (within reason) just because so many people are expecting a flat to negative earnings.
3: Q4 outlook and any extra 2015 guidance. This more than anything will affect the price on the day of the ER. If they reaffirm 35k (or suggest something higher?) and if ModelX is still to be on time, and if we are on track still for 60k+ next year with ~20k Model X and exiting 2015 at 100k run rate, I think things will be fine. Any detraction from this and the waters get a little more cloudy...

 

[Lump]

No, I think it was just the way he copied and pasted the details into the post. Copy and Paste into this editor has a mind of its own sometimes... Just like how you picked up the "potential" hyperlink from the article... it happens.

I am still a little pessimistic on the Q3 results, fearing the risk of a minor miss on the numbers and I still think we will post a non-GAAP negative EPS to boot, doesn't mean I am short...

Thats correct, it was a quick copy & paist of an analyst note without any bias on my part...thanks Curt.

- - - Updated - - -

Does the no mean that you are not short the stock?

Lump, is it possible that you displayed the negatively slanted headline in large bold font because you may be short TSLA?

The No means, I didn't do what you accused me of!

 

[chickensevil]

Short-term thread; long-term thoughts:
My intention is to hold the shares we have for the next four to five decades...and after that, it won't be my decision. HOWEVER....if this Veyron-beater, etc., that has been the focus of the past 2-3 pages here is indeed what we'll be seeing come 9 October, there is a very strong likelihood we'll be exiting our position far earlier. I don't take kindly to be deceived.

Let me calm you down some if I can.

They have said in many occassions that they have no interest in participating with racing and their main goal is mass adoption of EVs. Because of this, I think what is inline with any AWD option would be carry over from Model X. They already put in the R&D into making Dual Motors since they have many Model X test mules in Model S bodies already so why let that money go to waste. As such, and speed increase would be from the adding the same second motor they had planned to stick in the Model X. I really do not subscribe to the notion of some crazy fast car with some really wastefully large battery just to look fancy... that to me doesn't help with EV adoption... Not in the way that Elon has talked about because you are wasting an already short supply of batteries to show off... If they up the pack size it will be because it makes sense to add more range to the cars, not for some supercar that is extremely costly and limited run.

At most I expect the AWD option to cost 20k and that is pushing it... Because that will also affect the starting price of the Model X.

Bottom line, any performance gain in this option would be incidental, and not something they went out of their way to beat. This is why I think 3.5 seconds is the tops of what we could expect for them to lower the times because speed wasn't the intention

 

[jhm]

I wonder if we are seeing the after lunch institutions stepping in. If they were hoping to buy around $220, they'll need to revise their entry price. Only 5 days till D.

 

[chickensevil]

Back on the price movements there must have been a heafty limit order set for 256.50 that caused a sell off (we also peaked up over a 5$ gain) so we came back down. Looks like it has turned around again so we will see where it goes hopefully we can make another break through! At this rate I might just sell off everything before we even make it to Oct 9th! haha!

 

[Causalien]

My magic 8 ball says +2.19%

 

[Raffy.Roma]

My magic 8 ball says +2.19%

I remember that your magic ball always worked well. :tongue:

 

[Causalien]

I remember that your magic ball always worked well. :tongue:

It had a huge flop where +6% prediction resulted in the next dip down . I forgot who I was chatting to, but the joke was that a +6% prediction means big news. And the 8 ball never works on big news days.

 

[EnergyMax]

Short-term thread; long-term thoughts:
My intention is to hold the shares we have for the next four to five decades...and after that, it won't be my decision. HOWEVER....if this Veyron-beater, etc., that has been the focus of the past 2-3 pages here is indeed what we'll be seeing come 9 October, there is a very strong likelihood we'll be exiting our position far earlier. I don't take kindly to be deceived.

"Deceived"???

The Master Plan of getting to gen3 needs a lot of capital. This could really help margins, and help Tesla fund gen3 R&D. I'm also holding for years, but won't begin to think of Tesla reneging on the mass market concept until I've seen gen3 base price. Everything else is just building resources.

 

[InTheShadows]

FYI -- The Porsche 911 S and 911 4S differ by only 0.1 sec in the 0-60 test. Same amount of power, distributed to 4 wheels instead of 2, doesn't make much of a difference in maximum acceleration.

To get a 0-60 time near or below 3 seconds, the Model S might need about double the power of a P85. Double the power output might not be possible with the 85 kWh pack.

It would make a huge difference if each axle had its own engine. That's what you get with the Model SD, one full motor for each axle. Besides the P85 is traction limited for acceleration right now. The first 40mph is all traction management.