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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Guys (you know who you are) - I utterly hope you are correct; I have an immense fraction of our assets riding on this - but this talk of a Veyron-killer (NOT the talk of an AWD!!!!!) is, to me, exactly opposite to the Secret Master Plan. Keep your eyes on the ball, Tesla!
 
So if hedges are insuring flatness, perhaps the way to play is to sell options and buy the stock. Just wondering aloud.

That would be a sound strategy, assuming they continue. The problem is you don't know when they are going to stop their suppression, which would make writing puts and calls a bad plan. So tread carefully!
 
Trip lost his credibility with the silly Gigafactory report: Tesla Motors: First We Take Reno Then We Take - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

I don't see how a bull who makes things up is any better for TSLA than Lovallo or the other bears with no credibility. We already know the D pertains to the Model S and TM has no Model D trademark on record. I find it hard to believe they would introduce their mass-market car, the culmination of the secret Tesla master plan, as "something else". I think a Model X reveal is more likely because we were supposed to see the betas in the Sep-Oct timeframe, but I feel like even that would deserve it's own event. My guess is still that the D is for Deluxe and maybe the something else is dual motors AWD.
 
You know what would impress me more than a supercar version of the Model S? A more affordable entry level Model S. Take the price of the S60 from $71000 down to $61000. I think I would have bought one already at that price. The basic problem with the S60 is that it is priced too close to the S85 starting at $81000. Once you realize what you can get for $10k more, it is easy to get to a place where you'd only buy the car if you could get the S85, but since that is too pricey, you don't buy an S at all. Instead, you wait for the Model 3. If the S60 were priced lower, it would be a much better value and could open up an additional segment of buyers. Additionally, it is a major turn off that the wait time for the S60 is always longer. It's insulting to be put at the back of the line simply because you want to buy a more affordable car.

So as an investor, I'm quite happy to see dual motors come along. It's an attractive option and will add to the bottom line. But as a potential customer, I'd really like to see a more affordable entry level Model S. I'm tired of waiting for a Model 3, and I suspect I'm not the only one.
 
So as an investor, I'm quite happy to see dual motors come along. It's an attractive option and will add to the bottom line. But as a potential customer, I'd really like to see a more affordable entry level Model S. I'm tired of waiting for a Model 3, and I suspect I'm not the only one.

You are most certainly not the only one. There is a virtual avalanche of people waiting to get in line for the Model III, the likes of which will shake the world (for the better). But remember there is no Model III without an up and running Gigafactory, and there is no Gigafactory without revenues from sales of higher end cars. It really is essential to the plan, and I'm pleased to see the company continuing to execute well.

For old world auto companies, it takes years to design and build even a mediocre car. Trying to build the best car in the world in each class of car Tesla chooses to enter in less time than most companies on the planet could even get working prototypes is very hard, and takes money, time and discipline.

I believe October 9th is about AWD Model S and a Model X reveal, which are both great things for shareholders, for the company and yes, even for future Model III owners.
 
The MarketWatch article indicated that Chowdhry expects the unveiling of both the Model 3 and AWD for Model S on October 9. It's not clear which is the "D" and which is the "something else".

I think that Mr. Chowdhry is probably incorrect on his prediction. Anticipation for the Model X is crazy high, and Tesla must be aware that inviting Signature X buyers to a major event and NOT showing the X would be a disastrous PR move.

Nothing's guaranteed of course, but I estimate low likelihood of Model 3 reveal, and high likelihood of Model X Beta reveal.
 
Yea, yea, I get it, Tesla keeps announcing upgrades to make even faster cars for the upper few percent. When does Tesla announce something that makes the lower end S to be even more affordable, something that'd be in line with The Master Plan?
That's not in line with the plan. You're thinking of Gen 3.

Elon Musk said:
1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

1=Roadster
2=Model S, Model X
3=Model 3
4=SolarCity (kinda)
 
You know what would impress me more than a supercar version of the Model S? A more affordable entry level Model S. Take the price of the S60 from $71000 down to $61000. I think I would have bought one already at that price. The basic problem with the S60 is that it is priced too close to the S85 starting at $81000. Once you realize what you can get for $10k more, it is easy to get to a place where you'd only buy the car if you could get the S85, but since that is too pricey, you don't buy an S at all. Instead, you wait for the Model 3. If the S60 were priced lower, it would be a much better value and could open up an additional segment of buyers. Additionally, it is a major turn off that the wait time for the S60 is always longer. It's insulting to be put at the back of the line simply because you want to buy a more affordable car.

So as an investor, I'm quite happy to see dual motors come along. It's an attractive option and will add to the bottom line. But as a potential customer, I'd really like to see a more affordable entry level Model S. I'm tired of waiting for a Model 3, and I suspect I'm not the only one.

This is why I think it was dumb to discontinue the 40kwh. The only saving grace has been that tesla is production constrained anyway.
 
I think that Mr. Chowdhry is probably incorrect on his prediction. Anticipation for the Model X is crazy high, and Tesla must be aware that inviting Signature X buyers to a major event and NOT showing the X would be a disastrous PR move.

Nothing's guaranteed of course, but I estimate low likelihood of Model 3 reveal, and high likelihood of Model X Beta reveal.
Trip is more a speculator and less an analyst. His reasoning in past would make you laugh and I think has come out straight from people speculating on TMC.
 
Back on planet Earth, the P85D will not be a "Veyron killer", and there will not be a Model 3 reveal. Remember, there are still people out there who think the Model X is going to be the "lower cost Tesla".

+1
lets bring people even closer to planet earth and remember that the X reveal might not even be in this event...Goldman put out its report just a couple weeks ago right after meeting with mgmt and seemed to think X wasn't going to be revealed until the Detroit show
I hope it is something cooler than just a new dual motor P85 and Lane assist parking sensors but lets not forget that some of these surprise announcements have been duds in the past so let's all keep that in mind (leasing announcement, battery swap station was cool but may never happen, etc.)

I am tempted to buy some puts as hedges on Thurs for Friday expiration as I could see the stock tank 10-20 bucks Friday if it's not something as amazing that all of us are hyping it up to be
 
That's not in line with the plan. You're thinking of Gen 3.


The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

1=Roadster
2=Model S, Model X
3=Model 3
4=SolarCity (kinda)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk

According to Marc Tarpenning, the SUV crossover vehicle was supposed to be an "even more affordable car" than the Model S. Under that interpretation, I get:
1=Roadster
2=Model S
3=Model X
4=Gigafactory, which will take renewable energy to the next level
5=Model 3

Sadly, this vision of Model X as more affordable than Model S has been lost. Instead, we're all expecting it to be a little more expensive than the Model S.

My proposal is modest. Reduce the S60 by $10000. They can charge $10000 for dual motors. This and other upgrades will keep the ASP and GM high enough to continue to that advance to afford a electric vehicles. The ASP will continue to be about $100,000 and GM can still reach 30% through well priced options. The Master Plan is in no way put in jeopardy by making the S60 a little more affordable. To the contrary, such a gesture would reinforce Tesla's commitment to making EVs increasingly more affordable.
 
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Back on planet Earth, the P85D will not be a "Veyron killer", and there will not be a Model 3 reveal. Remember, there are still people out there who think the Model X is going to be the "lower cost Tesla".

I ran into one of those "they are releasing the $30k cuv next year" just last week when a guy at a harvest festival saw our car.

@JRP how many kw can be theoretically be pulled from the 85 pack? Could we get 500-600kw from it? I think that would be the limiting factor with dual motors.
 
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