Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FluxCap]

That's 8:30am EST right?

Yep, from Briefing.com:

"Ms. Yellen's prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET while the subsequent Q&A session is expected to receive significant attention since it will be the first public appearance for the new Chair of the Federal Reserve."

Again, this could be a nothing moment or could add momentum in any direction. Hard to predict what she will say, but I don't have any reason to believe she intends to drop a bomb on the market, and expect fairly measured and predictable behavior in line with current Fed policy trends. If the market hates what she says, look for shorts to pounce with trading bots set to kill and negative linkbait articles firing off fast. But I don't think they have enough ammunition to stop the short squeeze happening completely.

If for some reason the market loves her tomorrow and the NASDAQ is pushing up hard as a result, then that could be a catalyst that, combined with today's catalysts, propels TSLA up faster than a SpaceX rocket, and $200 could be long gone.

 

[GlennAlanBerry]

You can see the shorts whining on StockTwits

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-price?symbol=US:TSLA&ocid=en-us_bingiaquotebtn&

 

[772]

why'd TSLA go up so much today? did BofA up their price target from $45 to $65 or what

 

[NigelM]

Yes - but please google for the link that I got that info from.

Be careful with that article, there was a discussion up-thread already this morning. The article covered one month sales figures only and doesn't refer to on-going order commitments; could just as easily be restocking inventory.

 

[Julian Cox]

Be careful with that article, there was a discussion up-thread already this morning.

Nigel - true. I actually tracked down the company the article was referring to and looked at its statements, one possibility is that Tesla is dragging in a contracted number of parts prior to insourcing, but I don't much mind about that. For now I am deeply fascinated with short term price movements. I expect the shorts to make another run for the exits before close of play today and then I plan to hoot and guffaw a lot when I see $200 on screen.

Anyone else see the right hand side of cup with a handle? I can.

 

[NigelM]

For now I am deeply fascinated with short term price movements. I expect the shorts to make another run for the exits before close of play today and then I plan to hoot and guffaw a lot when I see $200 on screen.

Agree. Although I think there'll be a fair amount of profit taking also....it'll be interesting to watch.

 

[Julian Cox]

Fat Lady clearing throat. Who knew trading could be so much fun. (Yes I insanely bought the handle at $197). Go TSLA - $198.68 with volume returning.

 

[Larken]

Fat Lady clearing throat. Who knew trading could be so much fun. (Yes I insanely bought the handle at $197). Go TSLA - $198.68 with volume returning.

Here we go ladies and gents, fasten your seatbelts

 

[Julian Cox]

$199 volume going exponential again. Who but Musk could get a bunch of oil-slickers to pay for a green revolution. Greenpeace watch and learn.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I think we'll see a lot of resistance at $200 ... probably a fairly thick stack of offers to sell at that price.

 

[Johan]

I remember catching the magic first $100 trade back in May of 2013 with a screen capture. That was in pre-market. Lets hope $200 breaks today!

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013 - Page 241

 

[aznt1217]

$200 is a big psychological barrier. I actually hope we don't pass it today. I do not want to get into earnings with a loftier value than it is right now. Today's big catalyst is China's EV credit extension-- because that's what the street cares about.

 

[justdoit]

Normally I would expect to see a lot of volatility pre earnings and a sell on the rumour just prior followed by a huge break out or a huge sell off depending on the content of the call. This earnings call will be epic. Of that I am absolutely certain. Why? GAAP beat. Secondly upside guidance roadshow style. Thirdly Musk is far too smart to have literally advertised for shorts on Q3 for no reason. I think he wants to go shopping for a giga factory with a bond issue and I think he wants the shorts to give him a lovely strike price.

The stock is overburdened with shorts with nothing to hold their backs except for an emotional complaint that the valuation is too high and that complaint is completely irrelevant when the contingent complaining about it are exactly the same folk that are being being forced to buy it on margin calls.

On top of that, there is the imminent threat of the shorts getting skewered with an NHTSA all-clear announcement at any time now.

I imagine but I don't know for sure that the $190s is deep into margin call territory for the shorts. Would be great if someone could add color to that.

I strongly disagree with the bolded section above (bolded by me). Elon has mentioned over and over that he doesn't like the roller coaster that the stock is on and that it's bad when company morale is affected by it. I find it very hard to believe that Elon or Tesla in any way are trying to affect the stock price. Just my opinion.

 

[Julian Cox]

I think we'll see a lot of resistance at $200 ... probably a fairly thick stack of offers to sell at that price.

More than likely. Nevertheless a torrent of shorts covering on a margin calls don't get to pick and choose their price so favourably.

 

[Curt Renz]

I strongly disagree with the bolded section above (bolded by me). Elon has mentioned over and over that he doesn't like the roller coaster that the stock is on and that it's bad when company morale is affected by it. I find it very hard to believe that Elon or Tesla in any way are trying to affect the stock price. Just my opinion.

Elon seemed to say that when he was being threatened by class action lawsuits regarding the drop in share price. Now that the price is again at an all-time high, any such lawsuits clearly have no merit.

 

[AlMc]

More than likely. Nevertheless a torrent of shorts covering on a margin calls don't get to pick and choose their price so favourably.

We may touch $200 today but it is a point of great resistance. While this has been a great day for TSLA, it is AH and tomorrow that will be very interesting with the margin calls coming in and ER approaching. It would be truly great if NTSBA turned in their report AH.

 

[30seconds]

I think the comments from jeremy grantham at GMO being picked up are adding to this. He is very well known and his quarterly letters are widely read. His comments regarding TSLA are very uncommon based on what I remember reading from him (prob been reading teh GMO letters for about 7 or 8 years), especially for such a classic "value" investor.

 

[Julian Cox]

I strongly disagree with the bolded section above (bolded by me). Elon has mentioned over and over that he doesn't like the roller coaster that the stock is on and that it's bad when company morale is affected by it. I find it very hard to believe that Elon or Tesla in any way are trying to affect the stock price. Just my opinion.

I don't believe Musk is in the business of directly promoting the stock either, although naturally he is in the business of indirectly doing so by delivering value to be recognised in the form of market cap - he is specifically contracted to do just that with a target of $43.2 bn market cap.

There is however nothing at all to prevent Musk playing cat and mouse with the shorts. Musk owes a duty to shareholders, not benighted naysayers betting against his company. Playing skepticism against itself has provided Tesla with an infinitely renewable source of capital.

 

[sleepyhead]

Anyone else see the right hand side of cup with a handle? I can.

Yes, the cup with handle was set up nicely, and today we broke out of that pattern, which is a very strong bullish buy signal. We might see TSLA retest $194.5, or in the worst case $186. But if it does go to $186 I will load up even more. I don't think it will go that low though before ER.

 

[NigelM]

it is AH ..... that will be very interesting with the margin calls coming in .......

This.