Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[TSLAopt]

I'm a LEAPS investor and this looks like a great time to add; relatively lo IV and consolidated going into potential catalysts. I started loading at $165 and down including at $125 - for what it's worth I would recommend buying LEAPS calls here- J15 or J16

I agree that this is great timing to buy LEAPs for lower IV now but especially also the next few days the Jan 2015 LEAPs if in a taxable account. If you buy in the next few days and in the event that the jan '15 LEAP turns into a major winner then you can still sell it after one year and one day for long term gains before it exercises (at which point you would have to hold the stock for one more year into 2016 for it not to be short term gains if you want to close it out).
The Jan 2015 LEAPS expire on Jan 16 2015 i think so I believe as long as you buy them on or before Tues (jan 14th 2014) then you could still have the ability to sell them on jan 15th/16th 2015 to get long term capital gains treatment on them if they turn into a huge winner.

 

[JRP3]

Shipping without the battery (shipped in bulk to regional service centers) is likely more efficient IMO

Possible issue with that is they can't test the whole car at the factory with it's actual pack. May not be significant however.

 

[TSLAopt]

FYI, on Dec 27th Curt, Steve and others of us monitoring this thread complained about an article being erroneous on the garage fire reporting. The Wall St Cheat Sheet was the publisher. They just responded to the comments section and said they corrected the article, two weeks later! But at least it's something.

Tesla Answers Latest Model S Fire With Software Update



on another note, Tesla Motors didnt have a booth at CES but Panasonic did, and guess what was at their booth? Just a Model S...checki it out
Tesla Model S at CES 2014! - YouTube

any theories on how this might foreshadow Panasonic's press conference Monday at the Detroit show?

 

[dha]

InsideEVs is reporting that at least 25,000 Model S have been sold to date

Tesla Model S Sales Shoot Past 25,000 Worldwide

 

[sleepyhead]

I agree that this is great timing to buy LEAPs for lower IV now but especially also the next few days the Jan 2015 LEAPs if in a taxable account. If you buy in the next few days and in the event that the jan '15 LEAP turns into a major winner then you can still sell it after one year and one day for long term gains before it exercises (at which point you would have to hold the stock for one more year into 2016 for it not to be short term gains if you want to close it out).
The Jan 2015 LEAPS expire on Jan 16 2015 i think so I believe as long as you buy them on or before Tues (jan 14th 2014) then you could still have the ability to sell them on jan 15th/16th 2015 to get long term capital gains treatment on them if they turn into a huge winner.

Agree with this. Good point on the 2015 LTCG status. I have a feeling there will be good news/rumor tomorrow morning and TSLA will open above $150 and IV will spike and the LEAPS will cost 10% more.

At least that is what I hope happens. I went shopping for LEAPS and June calls last month and am fully loaded and hoping for a good ride. I know that Tesla will deliver, but I hope that TSLA delivers as well.

 

[TSLAopt]

Agree with this. Good point on the 2015 LTCG status. I have a feeling there will be good news/rumor tomorrow morning and TSLA will open above $150 and IV will spike and the LEAPS will cost 10% more.

At least that is what I hope happens. I went shopping for LEAPS and June calls last month and am fully loaded and hoping for a good ride. I know that Tesla will deliver, but I hope that TSLA delivers as well.

yeah, in my non-IRA acct i loaded up on some Jan 2016 250 LEAPs in mid Nov and unfortunately all the rest of my capital is still tied up in shares from Sept 75 Calls i had bought for $2 in the Spring that I had to exercise at expiration to avoid massive short term taxes. I'm already using a bit of margin and will have to borrow more money on margin to pay LTCG taxes on the Jan 2014 Leaps I sold in Sept to help finance holding those Sept options I had to exercise to avoid short term taxes on that.
i feel like I'm a slave to dancing around the tax man for a while, not fun.

 

[sleepyhead]

Yesterday, less than 1 mile from my house a car started on fire in the drive thru at a Jack in the Box (fast food restaurant chain) and burned the place down.

it was not a model S.

 

[InTheShadows]

Yesterday, less than 1 mile from my house a car started on fire in the drive thru at a Jack in the Box (fast food restaurant chain) and burned the place down.

it was not a model S.

Ooh, I should see that as a headline on the national news then tomorrow. .

Last week I drove to NYC and had to take a detour because a tanker carrying gasoline collided with a SUV, overturned and ruptured, spilling its load.

Interstate Closed After Gasoline Spill | WNEP.com

Just imagine if there would have been a spark. Makes one shudder.

 

[kenliles]

Yesterday, less than 1 mile from my house a car started on fire in the drive thru at a Jack in the Box (fast food restaurant chain) and burned the place down.

it was not a model S.

Maybe it was the Jack in the Model X

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ooh, I should see that as a headline on the national news then tomorrow. .

Last week I drove to NYC and had to take a detour because a tanker carrying gasoline collided with a SUV, overturned and ruptured, spilling its load.

Interstate Closed After Gasoline Spill | WNEP.com

Just imagine if there would have been a spark. Makes one shudder.

Oh, don't worry! Soon we will all be driving hydrogen cars and when the same thing happens to a hydrogen tanker it will be so much safer! /s

 

[TSLAopt]

Agree with this. Good point on the 2015 LTCG status. I have a feeling there will be good news/rumor tomorrow morning and TSLA will open above $150 and IV will spike and the LEAPS will cost 10% more.

At least that is what I hope happens. I went shopping for LEAPS and June calls last month and am fully loaded and hoping for a good ride. I know that Tesla will deliver, but I hope that TSLA delivers as well.

One more point in buying the Jan 2015 LEAPs is that there is a decent chance the Model E will be unveiled at the Detroit auto show in Jan 2015. If this turns out to be true and that day of the unveiling is before the Jan 2015 LEAPs expire (Jan 16th 2015) then those LEAPs IV value will go much higher as we get closer to that unveiling day (ie. similar to an option right before earnings event).

 

[AlMc]

Heavy volume out of the gate and 3-4% dip. Programmed selling? Bots? Can't figure this one.

 

[ksdprasad]

Heavy volume out of the gate and 3-4% dip. Programmed selling? Bots? Can't figure this one.

yeah..wondering why....any clue..any one?

 

[ibcs]

Looks like 150,000 shares dumped at one time. This could be a higher up in the company having shares mature. No other reason to dump that many shares at once to drive down the price. Hopefully, we will get a gradual buy back throughout the day.

 

[sleepyhead]

Looks like 150,000 shares dumped at one time. This could be a higher up in the company having shares mature. No other reason to dump that many shares at once to drive down the price. Hopefully, we will get a gradual buy back throughout the day.

I would imagine that Tesla employees are in a blackout period and not allowed to sell shares in January.

 

[FluxCap]

I had been busy and waiting for a brief dip, but was planning to add to my long position in a fund I help manage, this morning was the dip I wanted. Just doubled our long stock position in TSLA.

Here's to a successful 2014 and beyond, everyone. Cheers.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

From a german news feed I have the information that there is some rumor about Tesla looking for production capacity in Europe, more precisely Czech Republic. I could not find anything in the forum, but there is some press mentioning in german speaking press (Austria, Czech Republic and Germany):
Tschechien ködert vierten Pkw-Hersteller: Tesla « WirtschaftsBlatt.at
Prager Zeitung - Tschechien lockt Tesla
Tesla spokes person said "There is no comment right now!".
Did anybody hear of this?

 

[40percent]

Anybody know what this is about?

http://www.streetinsider.com/Momentum+Movers/Tesla+Motors+(TSLA)+Weaker+on+Chatter/9044655.html

 

[ibcs]

I would imagine that Tesla employees are in a blackout period and not allowed to sell shares in January.

I do know for a fact one employee was being vested in about 10 days. I'm not sure if they were able to trade those vested shares.

- - - Updated - - -

From a german news feed I have the information that there is some rumor about Tesla looking for production capacity in Europe, more precisely Czech Republic. I could not find anything in the forum, but there is some press mentioning in german speaking press (Austria, Czech Republic and Germany):
Tschechien ködert vierten Pkw-Hersteller: Tesla « WirtschaftsBlatt.at
Prager Zeitung - Tschechien lockt Tesla
Tesla spokes person said "There is no comment right now!".
Did anybody hear of this?

Here is the translation...

Prague. The Czech government is trying zulocken a fourth car manufacturers in the country. The visor has the U.S. firm Tesla Motors , which wants to produce , among others, electric cars and build a new factory in Europe. Compared to the Czech daily " Mlada fronta Dnes " (Thursday Edition) confirmed this , the spokeswoman for the Government Agency for Foreign Investment , CzechInvest .

" We know about the interest of the company Tesla Motors to realize an investment in Europe. We carefully monitor their activities and in the U.S., we are going to take required steps to get to this investment," CzechInvest spokeswoman Adela Tomickova explained without more details because we are dealing with a "very sensitive project ." The investor himself would not comment on the information. "No comment right now," the paper quoted the spokesperson of Tesla Motors , Patrick Jones.

If the investment is finally realized in the Czech Republic but it would be as early as the fourth passenger car manufacturers in the country. In the Czech Republic Skoda car ( VW subsidiary ) , Hyundai and TPCA (JV of Toyota , Peugeot and Citroën) are already active . The car industry one of the locomotives of the Czech economy and exports.

- - - Updated - - -

From a german news feed I have the information that there is some rumor about Tesla looking for production capacity in Europe, more precisely Czech Republic. I could not find anything in the forum, but there is some press mentioning in german speaking press (Austria, Czech Republic and Germany):
Tschechien ködert vierten Pkw-Hersteller: Tesla « WirtschaftsBlatt.at
Prager Zeitung - Tschechien lockt Tesla
Tesla spokes person said "There is no comment right now!".
Did anybody hear of this?

Second article translation....

The Czech government agency CzechInvest , whose job it is to attract foreign investors to Bohemia and Moravia, is committed to the U.S. electric car maker Tesla Motors . This plan to build a production facility in Europe. The reports the daily newspaper "MF Dnes " in its latest issue .

"The interest of Tesla Motors to invest in Europe is known to us . We monitor very closely their activities in the U.S. and develop the necessary steps to get a possible investment to the Czech Republic , "confirmed CzechInvest spokeswoman Adela Tomíčková told the newspaper . Details they would not disclose . " It is a very sensitive project," said Tomíčková .

Martin Jahn , chairman of the Czech Association of the Automotive Industry and former CzechInvest CEO , holds mainly the labor force for decisive. " To attract someone , many factors are important , but the most important are skilled workers ," said Jahn against the "MF Dnes " . Tesla Motors declined to comment on his possible involvement in Europe.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

InsideEVs is reporting that at least 25,000 Model S have been sold to date

Tesla Model S Sales Shoot Past 25,000 Worldwide

So minus the 2650 cars sold in 2012 this would put 2013 sales at 22,350, a beat of 850 over Tesla's guidance of 21,500 for 2013. I think this is actually a credible number.