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Active Member
You guys made me nervous, sold some weeklies this morning and bought them back for a small profit. Don't want to get caught with my shorts down.
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mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
That's a big number julian. I don't see it coming, the 220 line, in my opinion, is where this stock will top out next. I believe that a good amount of the "recall" hysteria was actually priced in during that 20 dollar jump when elon recalled the word recall. Even though that wasn't the official recall from the NHTSA, it did serve as a reality shake to the shorts to close their position and push the price up. I don't see a recall pop of more than 10 dollars, followed by good news of earnings to carry us to 220, and I set my short options there. I'll take 240, but it seems unrealistic in light of the moves so far.
I'm in that boat. By chance, I briefly got off a cross-country flight to take advantage of the airport's wifi, saw it at $171 and thought "hmmm, would be a great time to average down" but I've done this before and have been burned. I have already deployed all the capital I wanted to, and must live with the short, medium and long term plays I have set in motion. C'est la vie.
The Wedbush $240 PT is what it is. The highest analyst PT out there that I am aware of. Interestingly Wedbush is one of the only analysts I am aware of that has taken the trouble to interview Tesla about its business in order to be a be to arrive at this conclusion. Ultimately Wedbush is correct only question being when. However it is a braver man than I that buys a significant quantity of near-term $235 calls. Personally I will be perfectly delighted with anything in the $190s, and more than that the merrier.
That said, I think an NHTSA all-clear could deliver a cascade capitulation of the shorts, it is one thing to tire of the issue and focus on other matters, it is another for the shorts and sensationalist media to be officially ruled to have been wrong all along. $10 is not enough IMO.
That said, I think an NHTSA all-clear could deliver a cascade capitulation of the shorts, it is one thing to tire of the issue and focus on other matters, it is another for the shorts and sensationalist media to be officially ruled to have been wrong all along. $10 is not enough IMO.
GMO’s Jeremy Grantham just endorsed Tesla:
Holy Cow, GMOs Grantham Likes Tesla! - Stocks To Watch - Barrons.com
But I think the biggest news here is this part:
So he is saying that Tesla's chief engineer told him a month ago the battery costs 22k?
Holy Cow, GMOs Grantham Likes Tesla! - Stocks To Watch - Barrons.com
But I think the biggest news here is this part:
So he is saying that Tesla's chief engineer told him a month ago the battery costs 22k?
I took the part out of context for the point, but in context. It definitely sounds like he is talking about the Model S. Though it might be the starting price of a 60kwh(For example, he could have been told "The base car battery costs 22k") or etc. Or this could be the new price they negotiated with Panasonic.
Here is the full thing:
The car he test drove 3 years ago in Boston was probably a Roadster. There where not any production Model S's back then, maybe a few alphas.
JB is not going to discuss the cost pricing of battery packs, as that's essentially ALL of the profit in each car.
Yes, obviously the car he drove 3 years ago was a roadster. But in context it does not sound like he is talking about the Roadster battery. The information is from 1 month ago. I doubt it would be about the Roadster.
Plus you never know what information slips here and there and JB is probably not the only person who knows how much the battery costs. He didn't clarify who he talked to exactly.
I think he is referring to the MIT Review article where JB was quoted to say that battery is under 25% of the price of the car "in most cases". The phrase, of course, was intentionally vague, open to several logical interpretations.
Well 25% would mean 88k. (Which would be weird unless somehow his cowroker customized his Model S to be 88k which then it might be plausable). Otherwise 22k seems to be too exact of a figure. Usually people give round bound estimates unless given a specific figure to work with.
Edit: Just looked up the MIT article and that was 6 months ago. Also will point out that he used the term "chief engineers" in plural.
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I think the consensus is a 85k pack costs Tesla around 17k to make, so 22k is not so far off. Average asp of 100k. "under 25% price of car". 22k to 17k are all plausible.
It also underscores why the other automakers are in trouble. The model S power train is a ~20k battery + the motor/power unit. That should be much less than 10k, but call it 30k for a drive train all in. Car Gross Margin is at least 25%, so cost of goods about 75k, so around 45k for the "car". There is enormous potential cost savings in the "car" once they get their suppliers straigtened out and more favorable contracts.
It also underscores why the other automakers are in trouble. The model S power train is a ~20k battery + the motor/power unit. That should be much less than 10k, but call it 30k for a drive train all in. Car Gross Margin is at least 25%, so cost of goods about 75k, so around 45k for the "car". There is enormous potential cost savings in the "car" once they get their suppliers straigtened out and more favorable contracts.
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$15K * 80% = $12,000
One interpretation of the Gen III battery cost for 265 mile range vehicle.
There is a lot of focus on the cheapness of the Gen III and rightly so. There is also another reason why other automakers in trouble: A Chris Porrit designed suspension system on a 80% sized Model S silhouette vehicle with a 500+ hp Model X derived AWD drivetrain with silly torque numbers and split ratio gearing for whatever top speed they care to dial in. Such a vehicle will have the potential within easy reach to utterly destroy the performance numbers from any sub $1 Million (per car) vehicle from Ferrari, Porsche and with the battery in the floor pan and AWD microsecond resolution traction control, nail them all for sports handling too. Such an extreme vehicle could come in at the price range of a typical Subaru Imprezza, Golf GTI, Mitsubishi EVO, BMW M3 (wiping out the whole point of the semi-affordable sports hatch segment entirely) and offer complete practicality for family or shopping trips with adjustable ride comfort for daily use. On top of that, free long distance travel, convenience for charging at home with overall energy and maintenance numbers to make a Prius weep.
Speaking of which. Who on Earth but those selling the concept of Hydrogen FCVs imagines in their wildest dreams that there could ever be market demand for Toyota's 2015 FCV range extended Prius.
0~60 in 10.5 seconds and no alleviation from pain at the pump unless they offer it as a PFCV with a 40 mile all electric range or some such thereby humiliating the whole concept of Hydrogen.
As if it were not humiliating enough already to try to sell Hydrogen as a clean alternative to EVs!
Producing hydrogen Air Liquide
(The above link is a nice animation from a Hydrogen producer explaining how it is made - Air Liquide is an investor in PLUG the hydrogen fuel cell company).
$180 pre market at time of writing. Happy trading.
marvinat0rz
Member
In the absence of other catalysts and with the last days increasingly optimistic TMC 4th quarter projections regarding ZEV credits etc, it appears that the market has been reading the posts on the forum. Just hope they don't wish for the moon this time too 
LeftLaneNews Mobile Version
If this affects shares I'll be buying hand over fist. Daily dose of comedy.
If this affects shares I'll be buying hand over fist. Daily dose of comedy.
If TESLA is indeed going to decide on the timing of NHTSA news, then I think it will happen early next week as to keep the momentum in stock before the earnings release the following week, plus without knowing job data it wouldn't make sense to release a big catalyst - just cuz market sentiment will affect investors...
In overall market news today, we continue the battle of somewhat negative economic indicators affecting the overall market, which can pressure TSLA price downwards, vs. the ongoing train of positive news about Tesla's latest victories, which is keeping us on the march upwards. It's clear the market is expecting / digesting great news about Tesla Motors, and buyers are hungry for TSLA in advance of earnings.
"January nonfarm payrolls came in at 113,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 175,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 142,000 against the 161,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% while the consensus expected a reading of 6.7%"
I am personally very pleased by the moderate but very effective increase in PR effort lately. For example, someone worked a bit harder than in prior quarters to develop this cross-country supercharger marketing campaign with e-mail/blog/press appearances, and they did a very nice job. #OMGMarketingBudget
Edit: that someone is apparently Hamish McKenzie, hired in January as "Lead Writer." An interesting title for a corporate position outside journalism, but I'm not complaining about the results. Three cheers to whoever hired this fellow.
Edit2: Aaaaaaaand that would be Elon doing the hiring on this one. Good show, boss.
"January nonfarm payrolls came in at 113,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 175,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 142,000 against the 161,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% while the consensus expected a reading of 6.7%"
I am personally very pleased by the moderate but very effective increase in PR effort lately. For example, someone worked a bit harder than in prior quarters to develop this cross-country supercharger marketing campaign with e-mail/blog/press appearances, and they did a very nice job. #OMGMarketingBudget
Edit: that someone is apparently Hamish McKenzie, hired in January as "Lead Writer." An interesting title for a corporate position outside journalism, but I'm not complaining about the results. Three cheers to whoever hired this fellow.
Edit2: Aaaaaaaand that would be Elon doing the hiring on this one. Good show, boss.
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