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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Well I blew it by not getting in on next week's weeklies a day or two ago, but I just bought a few 205s. Basically it's a play against this nhtsa thing coming out, I figure 205 is within reach if it does. That said, we've been talking about this nhtsa thing for a while, so I don't necessarily expect it. But they were fairly cheap, so might as well go for it, since we don't have enough momentum to get my 190s itm this week.
 

someone knows something, who knows, but, there is a thread here on TMC,


Got message saying V6 was going to download, but then it didn't happen

that a Model S owner got a display message that Version 6 would download last night... turned out it didn't happen, but what if this is an indication that V6 release is imminent?

Consider that Elon said clearly in Europe last week that V6 will return ability to lower suspension. it seems a very very high probability that this will only happen with or after NHTSA report is released.

so maybe we get NHTSA report in next couple of days? If Tesla had any input in the timing, I think it would be terrific timing. Tomorrow marks one year since Broder's story. There will probably be some stories looking back on his story in hindsight. In hindsight his story looks like gibberish and hype (to the general public... it looked that way here right away). What a great time to share a report that plainly shows the media coverage of the fires was gibberish and hype.

gut feeling, NHTSA report after hours today.

2 nights ago, I was prompted for a download too (it didn't specify the version at that time). When I woke up expecting version 6, I was a bit disappointed to have version 5.8.7 (or something like that) downloaded. Maybe this person had the same?
 
Well I blew it by not getting in on next week's weeklies a day or two ago, but I just bought a few 205s. Basically it's a play against this nhtsa thing coming out, I figure 205 is within reach if it does. That said, we've been talking about this nhtsa thing for a while, so I don't necessarily expect it. But they were fairly cheap, so might as well go for it, since we don't have enough momentum to get my 190s itm this week.


just want to be clear, I've not made any trades on this or advising anyone to. perhaps the social chat thread would have been a better place for me to post the hunch.
 
Might not be a silly idea to deny stock for short covering at $186 and see where it goes. Been knocking on the door of $186 for the past hour in search of a breakout - would not sell those $190s if I was you, could be a mass short panic to get out before the bell.
 
just want to be clear, I've not made any trades on this or advising anyone to. perhaps the social chat thread would have been a better place for me to post the hunch.

Oh for sure, I'm quite skeptical that it will come out, the NHTSA can take forever on these things and it might not happen for months, who knows. That's why I didn't spend much money on the idea. I just figure that it's got to come out sometime, when it comes out we could see an easy 10%, and if I can buy otm weeklies for cheap several times in a row and then they go up 1000% when it finally does happen, then I have a little bit of time for the thing to happen, y'know?

Plus, I'm avoiding the premium from earnings anyway, so might as well.
 
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I think TSLA is strong today b/c overall market is fairly strong. Don't think there is much to read into it other than that. I also don't see why there is any reason to believe NHTSA will release something next week even though I'd be really happy if they did.

We're also approaching a point where I think Elon is getting uncomfortable with the stock price again and so Tesla definitely isn't trying to time anything to manipulate TSLA.

Just my opinions.
 
I think TSLA is strong today b/c overall market is fairly strong. Don't think there is much to read into it other than that. I also don't see why there is any reason to believe NHTSA will release something next week...

justdoit, definitely wise not to hold one's breath for an announcement, but I see

1. attractive timing for NHTSA (now over 3 months since last collision fire)
2. attractive timing for Tesla a) people talk over weekend, b) people may make link of media hype/gibberish with possible coverage of 1 year anniversary of Broder story
3. thread about an owner receiving version 6 notification
4. today's price movement
 
Usually, my inane posts involve something comical, at least in a Bush Alaskan sort of way. This one has no such excuse: it's just plain inane. As follows:

As near as I can figure, today's rise of $8.16 is, to the nearest penny, exactly what it takes to move TSLA by $1 billion in market cap (am using 122.6mm shares outstanding).

Now back to your regularly scheduled mayhem.
 
justdoit, definitely wise not to hold one's breath for an announcement, but I see

1. attractive timing for NHTSA (now over 3 months since last collision fire)
2. attractive timing for Tesla a) people talk over weekend, b) people may make link of media hype/gibberish with possible coverage of 1 year anniversary of Broder story
3. thread about an owner receiving version 6 notification
4. today's price movement

I agree with all of this. I think the v6 update definitely corresponds with the NHTSA results and the fact some owners have been getting notifications about it seems like a dead give away that the news is coming shortly. If we don't hear anything this weekend, then I would guess it'll be released during earnings.
 
This is the first time we have had a close that put us in pre-f*re territory:

Important for me anyway.

Feb7.JPG
 
Does anyone have further insight to the article that was posted yesterday about the stock forming a cup with a handle and an 186.10 entry point?

Stock Spotlight: Tesla Motors crafts a new cup with handle $TSLA : IBDinvestors


It is just the technical indicator voodoo that they love above all things. If a stock forms a cup and handle it is supposed to zoom to the moon. So to the extent that people see that it can be self-fulfilling. Is that what you mean?

I also saw that headline and thought: "Yay, another cupholder solution!". But sadly, it was not to be.
 
EU about to sign a transatlantic trade deal with the US, which would eliminate all the import tax on Tesla Cars.
This is huge!
Im not sure what the import tax rate was but afaik it was 15-20%
That would put TM in a much better position.

I guess thats where the todays gain came from.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/06/us-eu-usa-trade-idUSBREA1519S20140206

This is HUGE! Remember there is one country that has got no import duties from Tesla atm, and that is Norway. Norway has got 10% of all the cars that Tesla has ever sold. Now Tesla can conquer Europe as well. Especially since there will probably be better incentives in the future due to the Carbon cuts EU just set for 2030. Demand? When Tesla supplies enough to meet demand we are all super rich and retired.

"EU cars imported into the United States are charged a 2 percent duty, while the EU sets a 10 percent duty on U.S. cars. Including even higher duties for trucks and commercial vans, the burden for automakers amounts to about $1 billion every year."

Even if it is only 10%, that is a lot!
 
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