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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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I think the big interesting thing is how well Tesla did in Germany but how poorly it did with Norway :/
Though Tesla got a lot of 0 points in some places. I think more than any other car.

A lot of judges I believe get bought out one way or another...how did Tesla get zero votes from all the judges combined in Spain? Seems very bizarre to me

even the guy reading the results was perplexed as he was reading one country giving Tesla #1 and the next country giving it all zeros
 
Well, I can't believe the car got zero points on its merits. Even if you disregard conspiracy theories of how jurors can be bought, zero points for a finalist who, in the end, comes in at #2 screams bias. Maybe it was the price, maybe the fact that this is a pure EV and they think that's not good enough (remember the European SC network is nowhere compared to the US. Eg there is no SC in Spain, Italy...).

Regardless, we can be proud of the Model S given the competition and the silver medal.

FYI, we have a thread on this award.
 
Is it too soon to start averaging in new purchases? :) I was thinking this would be a 3-5 day downturn but it is so tempting...

That was exactly my thoughts earlier in the morning - sitting on a large pile of cash after selling March 22 $190 calls last Wednesday. I've decided to wait for now, would like to get in when TSLA is in the 220-ies...
 
^I'm also out of Mar 22, 200 puts, this morning. Net long, again :) All the open did was limit net bid/ask damage, against opening a position at ~$249 on Thursday of last week. I think criticism of Jonas $320, as underwriter is baked in at this point, and apart from roll-over risk, yet another net cap structure for TSLA is ready to go. 25 basis points, on 5yr debt for a shovel project, is pretty unbelievable.


RE: Mod shifting I hope it doesn't lead to more technical, and less short-term fundamental stock analysis. That's all.
 
I took the clickbait and read his article. Basically, in the past, he said Tesla was doomed due to battery shortages, and now that they're building a factory to address that very issue, he's saying they're doomed due to a battery glut. Oh yeah, and that if Tesla has to repay all the convertible notes when due, then they'll go bankrupt since they don't have the money for it right now. I guess a sophisticated financial analyst like himself has never heard of rolling over debt...

(FWIW, I try to read the Tesla contrarians because I do think it's important to cross-check one's own opinions. But Pedersen is fun just to see him become increasingly unhinged as his tales of Tesla demise keep proving greatly exaggerated...)
 
I took the clickbait and read his article. Basically, in the past, he said Tesla was doomed due to battery shortages, and now that they're building a factory to address that very issue, he's saying they're doomed due to a battery glut. Oh yeah, and that if Tesla has to repay all the convertible notes when due, then they'll go bankrupt since they don't have the money for it right now. I guess a sophisticated financial analyst like himself has never heard of rolling over debt...

(FWIW, I try to read the Tesla contrarians because I do think it's important to cross-check one's own opinions. But Pedersen is fun just to see him become increasingly unhinged as his tales of Tesla demise keep proving greatly exaggerated...)

This was exactly why I posted it. for both of those reasons. A laugh, because it is JP, and to also serve as a sanity check, that if this is all these people have to cling on to for why this company will fail, then I feel pretty great about the future of Tesla.
 
Here's the chart as I see it:


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It must have dawned on investors that Tesla Motors cannot be adversely affected by political quarrels in eastern Europe. However, it could benefit from fears of oil supply disruptions.

Where else are you going to go that has:
1) An inverse risk exposure to worldwide energy disruption (EV's look better the more gasoline/oil supply is disrupted, relative to ICE's)
2) A 6 year plan to grow dramatically, that is funded and planned
3) Award winning product with huge margins and huge revenue/unit they cannot make fast enough.
4) Selling into one of the largest global markets there is (autos) where even a 1% market share is huge success.
5) Headed up by the best management team in the world -- (quick, name 2 CEO's in Musks' caliber, not using Steve Jobs RIP)
6) No competition to speak of (high end or long-range pure EV)
7) Have built-in price support of wealthy individuals (owners), and built-in price support from shorters (people who are close-minded to the idea of EV's)

The only argument is that the stock might be "high" but that is true of any stock ever that is successful.

Any other stock might be a bubble (social media), facing headwinds (NFLX), declining revenue streams (telecom, fossil fuels), high competition etc.

Flight to safety :)
 
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