One thing I haven't seen discussed here is the impact of today's results on analyst price targets. I have seen a number of comments saying that there are no short-term catalysts, but wouldn't we expect the analysts to re-iterate or even slightly raise their targets, given that the information on the conference call indicated reduced risk for the gigafactory and no fears of a drop in demand? Most of the big name analysts already have price targets substantially higher than the current stock price, so wouldn't that have an impact?
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Here's my chart with notes I've written on it. All I did was extend the lines out going into July.
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I think I read someone mention analyst price targets in another thread and at best we'll see reaffirms of current price targets.
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I think I read someone mention analyst price targets in another thread and at best we'll see reaffirms of current price targets.
while analysts may not raise targets, there is likely to be positive sentiment in many of the reports regarding,
-lowered Gigafactory risk with letter of intent with Panasonic (perhaps some additional details will surface in these analyst reports)
-Tesla's reiteration of confidence in 30% pack reduction for Gen III, and cautious optimism of exceeding those savings with some details shared on savings opportunities in the supply chain
-NA demand steadily increasing... some of these analysts might highlight that this was a direct refutation of one of the bear mantras of the past couple months
-on track to convert the production line for higher output with lower labor costs in July
I'd also add that in regard to the sentiment some have expressed here regarding a lack of catalysts until next earnings call... the annual meeting is 4 weeks from now, and anytime Elon engages in a Q&A (as he did at last year's meeting) there's a reasonable chance he makes comments which positively impact the stock (for example his visit to China last week and various Q&A events in Europe a couple of months ago). the annual meeting is by no means a guaranteed catalyst, but it has a decent chance of being one.
-lowered Gigafactory risk with letter of intent with Panasonic (perhaps some additional details will surface in these analyst reports)
-Tesla's reiteration of confidence in 30% pack reduction for Gen III, and cautious optimism of exceeding those savings with some details shared on savings opportunities in the supply chain
-NA demand steadily increasing... some of these analysts might highlight that this was a direct refutation of one of the bear mantras of the past couple months
-on track to convert the production line for higher output with lower labor costs in July
I'd also add that in regard to the sentiment some have expressed here regarding a lack of catalysts until next earnings call... the annual meeting is 4 weeks from now, and anytime Elon engages in a Q&A (as he did at last year's meeting) there's a reasonable chance he makes comments which positively impact the stock (for example his visit to China last week and various Q&A events in Europe a couple of months ago). the annual meeting is by no means a guaranteed catalyst, but it has a decent chance of being one.
I actually think we'll be in the green tomorrow. The after hours is looking like a bear trap, and I think a lot of shorts will cover at this price point. The demand argument has been struck down this time and the amount of progress on the GF is quite astounding for the period of time that's occurred.
My take away from the conference call is that Tesla business is on track. I have not heard anything that may highlight that there is more risk to the plan execution.
My only surprise is that so many questions were related to demand. That tells me that there is still a great deal of scepticism in the market regarding Tesla's product and consequently business. In the past, such scepticism had the power to damage the stock to a greater degree than now. I expect the stock to recover and rise on further gigafactory news.
My only surprise is that so many questions were related to demand. That tells me that there is still a great deal of scepticism in the market regarding Tesla's product and consequently business. In the past, such scepticism had the power to damage the stock to a greater degree than now. I expect the stock to recover and rise on further gigafactory news.
Finally listened to the call. I think it was a remarkable call that really highlighted how ON TRACK this company continues to be for long term growth.
Model S WW demand is above guidance from two years ago, no significant marketing needed, production ramping well with significant 2nd half 2014 growth, Model X sales ramp will be much steeper than Model S, Panasonic on board for the shift to gigafactory (which will significantly extend TSLA's lead vs. other automakers on both higher supply and lower costs), continued improvements in software (that no other companies can match), potential for significant market for local energy storage...
For the short term the hedge fund and Wall St. bears may be able to continue the pressure but with each quarter sales ramp, margins are met, cash flows increase and the overall vision of enacting a significant change to WW auto production becomes closer to reality. I think their arguments are weak, especially since their reasons change (no demand, price too high, quality, fires, BMW i3,...) but their conclusion remains the same (valuation too high, so therefore short).
As an individual investor I have my own advantages vs. Wall St / hedge funds - timeframe. They have to report to their investors every quarter, every year. If their TSLA long becomes overvalued and stops making money they have to get out. If their TSLA short overshoots and stops making money they have to get out.
I have the choice to do exactly neither.
For me, today's call was a long term affirmation that I'll execute on by buying 2015/ 2016 calls. Maybe now even something with expiration in the next couple of months, however I do think that there is an overall retrenchment of all the 2013/ 2014 high flyers and am not comfortable with timing something on the overall market.
Model S WW demand is above guidance from two years ago, no significant marketing needed, production ramping well with significant 2nd half 2014 growth, Model X sales ramp will be much steeper than Model S, Panasonic on board for the shift to gigafactory (which will significantly extend TSLA's lead vs. other automakers on both higher supply and lower costs), continued improvements in software (that no other companies can match), potential for significant market for local energy storage...
For the short term the hedge fund and Wall St. bears may be able to continue the pressure but with each quarter sales ramp, margins are met, cash flows increase and the overall vision of enacting a significant change to WW auto production becomes closer to reality. I think their arguments are weak, especially since their reasons change (no demand, price too high, quality, fires, BMW i3,...) but their conclusion remains the same (valuation too high, so therefore short).
As an individual investor I have my own advantages vs. Wall St / hedge funds - timeframe. They have to report to their investors every quarter, every year. If their TSLA long becomes overvalued and stops making money they have to get out. If their TSLA short overshoots and stops making money they have to get out.
I have the choice to do exactly neither.
For me, today's call was a long term affirmation that I'll execute on by buying 2015/ 2016 calls. Maybe now even something with expiration in the next couple of months, however I do think that there is an overall retrenchment of all the 2013/ 2014 high flyers and am not comfortable with timing something on the overall market.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I know I haven't been participating, so this might seem out of left field, and I could easily end up being wrong, but I'm not impressed with the after hours weakness in TSLA. I think a lot of speculators who guessed wrong on the metrics are feeling burned and betting on a big fall.
They might get it, and it might even hold up for the medium term, but on balance this is a good report for Tesla and my expectation is that gravity will eventually re-assert itself, with Tesla's world centered somewhere around $200/share, just as it has been for awhile now, with the biggest potential moves being to the upside rather than the downside of the $186 mark I am seeing right now.
For my part I am going to buy back into the stock after having spent the last month on the sidelines worried about Russia. I guess I am due to take big losses on TSLA, but I am just not expecting the stock to crater at this point.
They might get it, and it might even hold up for the medium term, but on balance this is a good report for Tesla and my expectation is that gravity will eventually re-assert itself, with Tesla's world centered somewhere around $200/share, just as it has been for awhile now, with the biggest potential moves being to the upside rather than the downside of the $186 mark I am seeing right now.
For my part I am going to buy back into the stock after having spent the last month on the sidelines worried about Russia. I guess I am due to take big losses on TSLA, but I am just not expecting the stock to crater at this point.
Thanks. Don't be a stranger! In the DaveT video chat that you participated in one of your main concerns was that only ONE Gigafactory for batteries was being discussed by TM and that it limited production to 500K vehicles in a time frame where you were hoping for a much larger scaling of production. With TM/Elon acknowledgement of at least two in the US and the possibility of some factories (car or battery?) in China in 3-4 years are you feeling better about GenIII ramp/sales?
WTF .... Zacks are reporting "non-GAAP reported was a loss of 40 cents per share"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-tesla-102642954.html
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/132757/tesla-marks-improvements-shares-take-a-hit
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-tesla-102642954.html
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/132757/tesla-marks-improvements-shares-take-a-hit
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I'm surprised folks are losing sight the reason Tesla is priced here is based off of Gen3 (and beyond) potential, adjusted for execution risk. We just got tons of clarity towards how Gen3 will be a reality and the extreme pace Tesla is taking with the gigafactory, so said execution risk has abated quite a bit. To me, Gen3 feels a lot more real now rather than "it will happen someday".
It's funny the street is caring so much about plus or minus a few hundred cars sold in 2014, as in a few cents of earnings when the stock is in the $200 range. I believe there is all the potential for the stock to pop upwards depending on the notes published by the more respectable analysts regarding this.
It's funny the street is caring so much about plus or minus a few hundred cars sold in 2014, as in a few cents of earnings when the stock is in the $200 range. I believe there is all the potential for the stock to pop upwards depending on the notes published by the more respectable analysts regarding this.
No big bull note has come out. GS reaffirms PT at hold, DB reaffirms PT at hold, Baird maintains PT at hold. Only ones that matter are Morgan Stanley and Andrea James' target
Ah thanks didn't see the AJ note. We're already seeing stupid news articles come out. Can't wait. Right now if you got cash, I'd be buying hand over fist. Next catalyst comes really soon with the investor road shows (auto industry conference in NY and such).
Yeah. As it sits right now guys we have another Q3 on our hands. Some of you guys are saying that you should buy right now. If you guys are TRUE longs, then you are probably right to do so. But in the next week we might be testing the 150's again. Q3 shows what can happen on mediocre quarters, so look at that and figure out when is the right time to buy.
Yup. And assuming things go well and there aren't any bad stories in the next week, it won't be as bad.
But why should I risk buying in too early? We have direct evidence of where we are going 2-3 days from now.
If there are any bad stories to be told, then there is no better time to tell them. There is no doubt big players wanted this stock lower.
Q3 did not cause the 3rd Tesla fire. It is hard to know how far the pullback for Q3 would have been without that negative catalyst. One might guess $140 since that was the price after the German authorities cleared Tesla.
I feel that, Elon is going to make JB CEO of Tesla in near term.
I have been seeing lot of JB in the public appearance with Elon and Today, JB was on the earnings call. It seems Elon is training JB.
Personally, I am OK with JB being CEO. But, I am wondering, how market will take it, if this happens. What do you think?
I have been seeing lot of JB in the public appearance with Elon and Today, JB was on the earnings call. It seems Elon is training JB.
Personally, I am OK with JB being CEO. But, I am wondering, how market will take it, if this happens. What do you think?
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