Very true. In fact it gets Tesla in the news, which is a form of advertising. While the company is production constrained, a little roadblock in Missouri hardly matters. Folks there will still be able to order online. Eventually, the federal courts will blow away these laws that are contrary to the US Constitution's interstate commerce clause. But until production is fully ramped up, the company can be patient.
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Very true. In fact it gets Tesla in the news, which is a form of advertising. While the company is production constrained, a little roadblock in Missouri hardly matters. Folks there will still be able to order online. Eventually, the federal courts will blow away these laws that are contrary to the US Constitution's interstate commerce clause. But until production is fully ramped up, the company can be patient.
Not to mention that being in the news for this issue is great because literally everyone is on tesla's side here.
roblab
Active Member
After months of listening to my wife tell about how the stock is in the red -- again, I have to say that my tiny bit of knowledge of stock market that TSLA has given me has shown me mostly that people are dumb. They know nothing about the company, but they short it, mostly hoping for immediate profit. Sure, some get it, some lose it. The stock market is a huge casino, it looks like.
Today's drop seems to me entirely about how people want profits NOW. Never mind that this is a growth company and things have to be plowed back in in order to keep growing.
Reminds me of the many stories I have read of peoples during WWII where the population is starving, and the next year's seed is sitting out in the middle of a field, guarded by a soldier who will shoot anyone who tries to get close. Go hungry, or die forever. But some people just don't get it.
The people at Tesla are smarter than any other car company in the world, maybe more than ANY company in the world. They are doing the right thing. I support that.
Now all we have to do is figure out how to get rid of lies, misinformation, meaningless tag lines, fear tactics, profit making health issues, etc. in the hours of advertising we are subject to every day.
Today's drop seems to me entirely about how people want profits NOW. Never mind that this is a growth company and things have to be plowed back in in order to keep growing.
Reminds me of the many stories I have read of peoples during WWII where the population is starving, and the next year's seed is sitting out in the middle of a field, guarded by a soldier who will shoot anyone who tries to get close. Go hungry, or die forever. But some people just don't get it.
The people at Tesla are smarter than any other car company in the world, maybe more than ANY company in the world. They are doing the right thing. I support that.
Now all we have to do is figure out how to get rid of lies, misinformation, meaningless tag lines, fear tactics, profit making health issues, etc. in the hours of advertising we are subject to every day.
If the discussion is an actual discussion, fine. If its just "nuh uh, shorting rules and buying drools" then no.
I see little real reasoning behind the comments posted, just doom and gloom. I get tired of doom and gloom posts the same way that I get tired of 300 by march posts.
The point about caution a few posts ago by cwin was well made and taken, the rest (about "what if it hit 100 6 months ago?" Or "shorting is safe right now" etc) is on balance not very helpful or even flat wrong.
How do you know this with 100% certainty? Is there a way to tell by looking at the charts or a website you can view to see this?
It might not be so funny....Gigafactory breaks ground in June, partner(s) signed on...and rally again
Ctrl + F "TSLA"
Alright, here is some discussion. If you want to DISCUSS, and not flame then I'm all ears.
ASSUMPTION: as of Q1 2014, Tesla is not changed fundamentally from Q3 2013, its goals, scope, and guidance have been increased, but it still does the same thing, make and sell Model S's. Merely promising to do something isn't reason for being worth 2X as much, ala Q4 2013.
Now, ignoring the cheerleading, ignoring the "you just don't understand the company" part, TSLA in Q3 was capable of moving from $171.9 to $137.9 in 3 days of trading under very similar circumstances. That's a 20% drop overall , starting from way lower than where we are starting from now, and that's ignoring the down days before the earnings report.
Not only this, but all "momentum" stocks are taking a beating at the moment, and that the market overall has more downward pressure than it did in Q3 2013.
Now if, like me, you would have considered 171 to be a slightly overweight price in Q3 2013, what would you consider 194 in Q1 2014? Now what, if it was already capable of moving 20% pretty easily BEFORE the fire stories, will TSLA do at a more overweight price under the same circumstances?
Sure we can talk about support levels all we want, but relying on the 200MA is basically a mathematical way of saying "It was high in the past, surely that means it can't go down from here?!", because we are just taking the average of the past closes, and comparing that to today's price. If Q4's prices were unjustified, then how is taking a moving average, including Q4's prices, correct?
So yeah, I think that for the next 2 days, buying puts, or shorting TSLA is a fairly safe bet, when you've collected on those, AND we have no additional bad press releases (not likely), then go back to the usual.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Actually, there is. Not all of us trade on a short-term basis. I participate in this thread because I think it's helpful to keep the long view in focus. Daily wild swings are to be expected in a controversial growth stock like TSLA, so I recommend that most people ignore wild movements and hold their shares for a long time. It's impossible for the vast majority of people to predict bottom and top stock prices.
If someone believes in Tesla Motors' future, now is as good a time as any to buy in, and hold until Tesla's EVs are widely sought after by the general public.
I realize that, I was just trying to say that the whole camp short vs. camp long antagonistic relationship shouldn't exist when discussing short term price movements.
There is no argument, If you beleive in the company and think it's going to be back at 265$ in january, any price, now or in 2 more days will be lower than that. I just disagree that NOW is the best time to buy back in.
Momentum goes both ways and right now the momentum in TSLA and a lot of other NASDAQ names is to the downside (makes sense since many traders are shorting "baskets" of these stocks, so they all go down/up together). When it comes to short-term price movements, it's much easier to follow the trend rather than to trade against it, even if you think the trend won't hold true in the longer term. I believe that's what he's referring to...
That said, I believe in the Tesla story long term, and I think Q1 and the Q1 call gave us a lot of promising information about the longer term development of the business. But I still think that, based on momentum, TSLA stock is going to go lower in the new couple days/weeks. Now, if they give the market something new, like a date for Model X reveal or other such news, then we might see a trend reversal sooner than I'm expecting, but I obviously can't predict when that would happen. I don't advocate anyone to short the stock unless your time frame for the trade is like a week or two, but I might buy a put or two tomorrow for a short term trade (I'm still net long TSLA). I think $160s and $150s, if we get there would be stupid prices, like $120s after Q3 '13, but I think the market is being stupid right now so it'll probably happen.
Just my take on things at the moment. :smile:
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Ok, I can agree that the antagonism isn't helpful, but,
again, I think it is futile for most people to find a "best" time to buy back in, so it shouldn't even be a consideration. Those who are willing to take their chances on making money off short-term trades obviously have a different calculus, but it's pretty much risky gambling IMO, whether Bull or Bear.
again, I think it is futile for most people to find a "best" time to buy back in, so it shouldn't even be a consideration. Those who are willing to take their chances on making money off short-term trades obviously have a different calculus, but it's pretty much risky gambling IMO, whether Bull or Bear.
Consider this issue as something to think about. I read a post elsewhere that after last year's big run up started the day after Q1 earnings where a whole lot of shares were bought. That means next week, mutual funds and other investors who got in in that period will enter long term capital gains timing. If funds sell after reaching LTCG there is a chance of further liquidations. Their purchases would have been under $100 per share.
MSMX2014
$ Contributing Member $
I feel for everyone who was long into ER and want to encourage you to be patient and not to lose heart. IMO it's best to hold and not sell your stock because if history repeats itself then you will be in the green again soon. Keep in mind that after Q32013 it took only 16-days to hit the bottom (~117) and another 50-days to eclipse the pre-ER peak (~194) from that point. Only a ~60 day turn around. We all know that the Q3 price drop was a fluke because of the fires. This is no Q3. Meaning we should not see that kind of retracement. IMO we would have hit the 140s worst case without fires. About a 40 point drop. In the last 3-days we've already seen a 40 point drop. I was long into Q12013 and Q22013 ERs. I was short into Q32013 and Q12014 ERs. I didn't participate in Q42013, but was long in spirit, just pussed out last minute. I covered my short today and started my long accumulation in the 178s with the belief we'll see a reverse at the 200MA.
If you truly think there have been no changes since q3, then I suggest that you didn't listen to the call. Breaking ground on a factory in a month, installing a new line in two. Also the huge job fair, the lathrop facility, china shipments started....
You can say that we saw those things coming, but we didn't see gigafactory coming, at least not for certain. Which confirms tesla's entry into a whole new industry, one which we had only theorized would be nice to enter prior to the last few months. And even if we did see china shipments etc coming, then part of your comment suggests that execution is more important than promises, and many of those promises have been followed through in the last quarter.
So, in the same way, sitting here as we are, knowing more than we did three months ago, beating estimates and guidance from three months ago, and being a better company with a brighter future than three months ago, when the stock was 265 and rose to that from 200 rather quickly, it's completely possible to make the same exact argument you have made, only in the opposite direction. Which is why it's silly to say that you know for certain that shorting is a super safe bet.
You must have been considering the price drop from 2013 NOV 5 to 8 (actually in Q4). The 2013 Q3 TSLA earnings report was released after the market close on November 5. The second incident of a Model S crashing into road debris resulting in a battery igniting occurred on November 6 and was reported by the media on November 7. Therefore, I would not describe the situations six months ago and today to be “trading under very similar circumstances.”
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