I agree also. I see $200 as a point of resistance. The next major jump up will be Q3ER, in my opinion. This will cause some damage to my late Sept calls and I am contemplating bailing on them in the next 2-3 weeks if my hypothesis comes to fruition and we can't break over $200. I don't expect much out of Q2ER unless we get some spectacular guidance (which I don't anticipate). Not really negative on TSLA in longer run but not expecting much short term.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I agree also. I see $200 as a point of resistance. The next major jump up will be Q3ER, in my opinion. This will cause some damage to my late Sept calls and I am contemplating bailing on them in the next 2-3 weeks if my hypothesis comes to fruition and we can't break over $200. I don't expect much out of Q2ER unless we get some spectacular guidance (which I don't anticipate). Not really negative on TSLA in longer run but not expecting much short term.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I was very open that I went short at $260 when many were hoping to see $285. I experienced 0 hostility from members. So, yes, it isn't sufficient to just be short to get on the forum's bad side. I think you need to either have a really poor argument for being short or you need to be disrespectful to draw that kind of fire.
sundaymorning
Active Member
There is no question model x will have a great launch, more than likely, it will be better than the S launch as we already have over 15,000 reservations and 2 years worth of production experience. I suspect this is the reason why tesla has yet to market the X heavily, because model S's biggest competition, momentarily, isn't GM Nissan or BMW-it's the model X. That's why tesla didn't bother advertising it in china. Why advertise the X when you can sell S right now?
About gen 3... I don't think the Ashton Martin executive who joined tesla a year ago is sitting around waiting for model x to finish. Chances are, he's working diligently on gen3's drive-train with his own personal gen 3 team. And you're right, it's constant motion at the tesla plant. Model s, x, gigafactory and gen3 developers work together simultaneously and that is how we'll be able to achieve our goal of producing gen3 by 2017-2018. But remember tesla only has to reveal its beta version in 2016 and the automotive world will go nuts! I expect deposits as high as the sky once Elon allows people to put down reservations, probably in 2016. So in essence, we don't really need the completed version of gen 3 to make an impact, just a sneak peak and the world will stop on tesla's time.
I still believe Gen3 preorders will set a bunch of new records for consumer product pre-orders and as a result catalyse very serious commitments to BEVs by the rest of the auto industry, cementing Elon's goal of sustainable transport. Hopefully we can quote this some day
And actually Franz let slip late last year they hope to debut Gen3 during the North American Auto Show in Detroit January 2015. I'm fully expecting it will be later than that but hopefully before 2016.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, based on the things management has said, they should be starting up the clay models this year for the gen 3 (forgetting about the retracted statement about revealing the car in 2015... IIRC, they actually have said before that the general timeline would be going to clay this year). If you also recall, they revealed the Model X before they had even finished the Model S. So clearly they have the personnel that can go ahead and shift focus into the Gen 3. The only stated reason why they held back the Model X by one year was to focus on the Model S a bit more. Which I am glad they did, because it has helped them really refine their process.
Regarding orders, I hope when they first open it up, I really hope it breaks the site because of the sheer traffic volume
Seems to always be the sign of a good launch when your website breaks! Haha!
everman
Member
I know I don't post much, but my thoughts at this stage are to be accumulating as much as possible. I figure we have about a month until it starts moving steadily up, triggered by breaking ground on the Gigafactory. This event will begin to generate all kinds of pictures of the site and really crystallize the concept into reality for a lot of people. I don't believe it will be a huge run up, but a steady march.
Step functions are likely to occur around any Model X production version reveal.
Remember, any lull between news means Tesla engineers are gathering steam. They are always working!
Step functions are likely to occur around any Model X production version reveal.
Remember, any lull between news means Tesla engineers are gathering steam. They are always working!
everman
Member
This is a great article, systematically disassembling the recent bear arguments.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2214243-dont-let-tesla-bears-cage-rattling-knock-you-off-course
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2214243-dont-let-tesla-bears-cage-rattling-knock-you-off-course
He did not do this. He said something along the lines of "maybe we'll even be able to show it then" and immediately after that statement went live, the company walked it back and said that that would not happen. It was a misstatement, not a "slip." Then the media reported it in many places as if the car would be on the road by then.
Be careful with things like this, this is how incorrect expectations get built up.
This is the short-term price movement thread, right? Ok, just checking. Wasn't sure if I was in the right place. :tongue:
This is what I'm seeing, or choosing to see for the sake of mental comfort. I started out with the big green channel as mostly a joke, but now I actually see some value to it, to keep in mind the longer term trend. Generally, besides these huge run-ups and pull-backs, we are making steady progress "up and to the right".
Oh, and in light of the recent convos on here: If you disagree with my chart or have your own suggestions, I'm all ears. If you generally disagree with TA and charting, just keep it to yourself, saying so doesn't add much and you have probably already said it multiple times in the past (not at anyone in particular). just my $.02 thanks
- - - Updated - - -
Here's some better detail:
This is what I'm seeing, or choosing to see for the sake of mental comfort. I started out with the big green channel as mostly a joke, but now I actually see some value to it, to keep in mind the longer term trend. Generally, besides these huge run-ups and pull-backs, we are making steady progress "up and to the right".
Oh, and in light of the recent convos on here: If you disagree with my chart or have your own suggestions, I'm all ears. If you generally disagree with TA and charting, just keep it to yourself, saying so doesn't add much and you have probably already said it multiple times in the past (not at anyone in particular). just my $.02 thanks
- - - Updated - - -
Here's some better detail:
Thanks for your fine charting, Robert. As you suggest, I'll keep further comments about your charting to myself. :smile:
Regarding your implication in the quoted sentences, you must be referring to discussions here of long term vs. short term investing. Since there is no forum thread here specifically devoted to that topic, it has to go into either the short term or long term thread. It seems appropriate that those recommending that long term shareholders adopt a more short term outlook, should place those comments in the long term thread. Conversely, it makes sense that those suggesting that short term traders consider a more long term outlook, may be wise to place their comments here in the short term thread.
That's precisely what I said... He let "slip" he hoped Detroit 2015, I use "slip" specifically because Tesla had to officially backtrack it right away. My next sentence even says I expect it to be later. Anyway, maybe my language isn't clear but I think we're on the same page.. just want to clarify this is not a rumor I'm making up, it was cited in multiple news articles when it happened.
Here's the direct quote:
von Holzhausen: BMW i3 is Tesla Model E (May) Debut 2015 - HybridCars.com
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Robo: Your green channel actually makes sense to me and I will be looking for it to hold steady (with wild swings inside the channel) for the coming year!
Yet it seems both end up in the snippiness thread.
Anyways, these movements seem a little quick in my opinion. Driven yesterday mostly by Mrs. Anniston and today by Panasonic. I wouldn't be suprised if we see a small pullback either tomorrow or thursday. But I don't think its likely that it will be significant. I'm not changing my 200 may 30th calls for anything.
Last edited:
I was actually referring to all the bickering about longs vs shorts... but great points nonetheless. (thanks for not bursting my bubble on the charts :biggrin
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yep that was me, so thanks Everman. Seeking Alpha vetoed use of the words like FUD and fib, and the overall tone of the article as originally submitted (indicating bears playing with the facts to try to impact the stock price), but glad they posted the toned down version.
Last edited:
Would love to see the original posted here as a blog please ! ... And thankyou for posting it ... great to see an article come out disputing all the FUD ... and right on que all the bears attacked you (instead of your information)
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked